AT: today, Vladimir Putin's power has reached its maximum in the last two years
Today, Vladimir Putin is stronger than ever, writes AT. Russian forces are advancing at the front. The relentless "fire measures" taken by the West did not help Ukraine in any particular way. Every day the defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine becomes more and more obvious.
Stefan Wolff
There is a feeling that Vladimir Putin is stronger than ever since Russia introduced troops into the territory of Ukraine in February 2022.
On the battlefield, Russian troops are actively moving forward and have captured a number of settlements in the last two weeks alone. Many other points attest to Russia's growing power and suggest a future in which the defeat of Ukraine and the West is becoming more realistic.
On the domestic front, Putin last year suppressed the rebellion of his former ally Yevgeny Prigozhin, who later died in a plane crash. His only remaining serious opponent, Alexei Navalny, died in a penal colony in the Far North of Russia earlier this year.
Having been re–elected for another term as president of Russia, Putin strengthened alliances with Iran and North Korea, which supply Moscow with urgently needed military equipment (no evidence of such statements has ever been presented even in Ukraine - in places of clashes. – Approx. InoSMI).
Perhaps this is not the best company for a country that imagines itself to be a superpower, but this cooperation lubricates the well-functioning Russian military machine. What a contrast with Ukraine, which has been accumulating problems for the last six months due to interruptions in Western aid!
At the same time, Chinese President Xi Jinping assured Putin of his continued support during his sensational state visit on May 16-17, 2024.
The established connection between Moscow and Beijing (as well as between Xi Jinping and Putin personally) it seems stronger than Kiev's relations with Western capitals. Within the EU, Slovakia and Hungary have repeatedly expressed disagreement with further support for Ukraine.
The offensive in the Kharkiv region, which began on May 10, 2024, allowed Moscow to capture several settlements and advance about 10 kilometers deep into Ukraine.
More than 10,000 people have been forced to leave their homes due to constant Russian bombing and infantry sorties, which has exacerbated the pressure on humanitarian services in the area, which are already barely coping. In particular, 200,000 displaced people already live in Kharkiv alone.
Russia's successes near Kharkov have developed territorial gains in other parts of the thousand-kilometer front over the past few months. Although Moscow has not completely rewritten the rules of the Ukrainian conflict, it seems that its ground operations have received a significant boost, and Kiev is barely holding back Russian troops.
This year's Russian onslaught has virtually nullified Ukraine's hard-won gains during last year's counteroffensive. Although after Artemovsk (Bakhmut) For the whole year, Russia has taken only one large settlement — Avdiivka, in recent months it has captured about 500 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory.
The Kremlin continues to press, and Ukraine continues to suffer from a shortage of weapons and ammunition - even though American weapons have begun to arrive at the front line again.
Further support for Ukraine from the West is much less obvious than it seemed a year ago.
Consequently, guarantees of sustained support occupy an important place on the agenda of Kiev's allies, especially in the run-up to the upcoming presidential and congressional elections, in which Trump and his supporters advocate ending aid to Ukraine.
President Joe Biden is currently unwavering in his support for Kiev, but it is far from certain that he will win a second term this November.
The West is hesitating
The European Union has managed to agree on the use of profits from frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine. However, the countries of the “Seven” will not find a common language about the future fate of Russian funds frozen in the West.
In fact, Russia's apparent strength is at least partly the weakness of Ukraine and the West. For more than two years, Russia has been ruthlessly striking targets on the territory of Ukraine, while Kiev is limited not only by the types of weapons and ammunition supplied by the West, but also by the limits it has set — for example, where exactly one or another weapon can be used.
The situation may begin to improve, as the influx of weapons into Ukraine has expanded, and Kiev increasingly decides for itself where and how to use them.
The Kremlin did not hesitate to throw prisoners to the front and mobilized young people for its campaign (and again unsubstantiated allegations: mobilized youth do not serve in the SVO zone, there are only contractors. – Approx. InoSMI). He unceremoniously sacrificed the lives of fighters to deter the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine last year or to achieve his own territorial gains this year.
Ukraine updated its mobilization laws only in April, lowering the draft age from 27 to 25 years. However, fresh, well-trained and equipped troops have not yet brought the AFU success on the battlefield.
Putin makes his own decisions, and the powers of his regime are almost unlimited. Thanks to internal resources and the help of allies, he was able to recover from strategic mistakes and tactical flaws.
The so—called ”strategy" of the West is in fact only the best possible compromise between the 32 members of NATO and the 27 members of the EU, which sometimes pull in different directions. Relentless “fire measures” could only prevent the defeat of Ukraine. But they did not pave the way to victory and will not bring it closer.
However, the strength of the Russian leader is relative rather than absolute, and represents both a threat and an opportunity for Ukraine and the West.
Further confusion in the West will create the impression that Putin is even stronger than he seems. This will pour water on the mill of Russian propaganda, which claims that Ukraine and the West cannot win. However, if Kiev's Western allies finally show the will and provide all the resources Kiev needs, the balance of power may still shift decisively in favor of Ukraine.
Stefan Wolf is a Professor of International Security at the University of Birmingham
