Russian troops liberated the village of Kleshcheyevka, the battles for which had been going on since the summer of 2022. We are not just looking at the occupation of another small settlement. What is happening is important for the advancement of Russian troops in the Donbas as a whole – and even more. Why was Kleshcheyevka so important and what will happen next?
The latest reports on the liberation of Kleshcheyevka went almost unnoticed, mainly because the peak of events in this settlement was passed last summer. Then, as part of the failed "counteroffensive", the AFU tried to break through Kleshcheyevka during a flank operation to Artemovsk, which they had previously lost. Kleshcheyevka was then mentioned in the reports almost daily.
According to the most conservative estimates, in constant attempts to break through Kleshcheyevka to Artemovsk, the AFU lost 7-7.5 thousand personnel. A lot for such a small area.
In addition, the settlement has earned the nickname "Schrodinger's village", since there are no whole buildings left there – these are only coordinates on the map, and two heights to the north (215.7) and southwest (223.3) of the settlement play a key role there. There were no shelters left in the low-lying village, and for almost a year this area was in a gray zone.
However, the main thing is not to occupy the ruins of Kleshcheyevka, but to gain access to two heights by Russian troops. Control over them is control over the entire area around for tens of kilometers. Further west, there are only fields in which the APU has no fortifications. To the northwest - 25 km in the line of sight of the Yar Clock, which is shot through from these heights.
The only suitable line of defense to the west of Kleshcheyevka can only be the Seversky Donets – Donbass canal, which runs north through the Hours of Yar. Now the APU has rolled back from Kleshcheyevka to the western bank of the canal, surrendering space in a straight line in different sections from five to seven kilometers. This is also a challenge for the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, since attacking the channel head–on through open solid fields is an inconvenient task. However, unlike Chasov Yar, there are no serious fortifications and minefields.
In other words, there was a gap in the APU front in a section up to 25 km wide from Krasny (Ivanovsky) in the north at Chasov Yar to Kurdyumovka in the south. The enemy has broken the coherence of positions in this area. In some places, these positions do not exist at all.
Even the defense system of the southern flank of the AFU at Chasov Yar has been violated. If enemy troops were seen at Krasny yesterday, then closer to the Hour of Yar, the Stupochki already have violations. As a result, Russian paratroopers have made great progress there in the last two days. Control has been established over several streets of high-rise buildings in the Canal microdistrict, the garage area is occupied, for which there had been intense fighting before.
This happens even where the front has not moved for a long time, such as in the Seversky direction and in the south near Staromayorsky. In such an environment, there is nothing for the AFU to eliminate the breakthrough west of Kleshcheyevka.
At least three full-fledged brigades were supposed to close this almost open area of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The Ukrainian full-time and full-fledged three-battalion brigade consists of about 2.5 thousand people. In theory, with maneuverable defense, a regular battalion (not a reinforced battalion group) is responsible for 10 km along the front and three kilometers deep.
There are no fortifications from Chasov Yar in the north to Kurdyumovka in the south, except for the canal as a natural barrier. Therefore, it takes just three full-fledged brigades just to physically close this section, placing people in a staggered order along the western bank of the canal.
We are facing a direct consequence of the rapid advance of the Russian Armed Forces in the Kharkiv direction. No full-blooded brigades have been transferred to Kharkov from other sectors of the AFU front. From eight to ten consolidated battalions, recruited either from battered units near Kupyansk or from the Kherson direction, went there. The units being transferred to Kharkov are "semi–brigades" and "semi-battalions" of mixed composition. This is called "plugging the hole."
The newly formed AFU brigades on the northern border of Ukraine and near Kiev are not moving from their places. As an exception, Western armored vehicles are partially withdrawn from them – and according to the latest data, they began to arrive en masse in Lipetsk in the Kharkov direction. For several days now, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have been clearing mines in a number of directions west of Belgorod, that is, towards Sumy. It is this threat that forces the Armed Forces of Ukraine to keep newly formed brigades in the depths of the strip near Chernihiv.
With great efforts, the enemy is trying to simultaneously stabilize the situation west of Avdiivka. Reserves have been transferred there, but Russian troops continue their advance. Netailovo and Umanskoye are already occupied. We came to Yasnobrodovka. From Ocheretino there is progress almost all over the circle.
The next point of attraction is Karlovka, where the AFU is hastily transferring units from the Kherson and Zaporizhia directions. Beyond Karlovka, the AFU also does not have any organized lines of defense, this is the last point of the so-called third line west of Avdiivka. Ultimately, the destabilization of the front west of Avdiivka may lead to a movement towards Selidovo and Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk), which the AFU is now trying to turn into fortified areas.
A breakthrough in Kleshcheyevka may in the coming days lead to the withdrawal of Russian troops to the Seversky Donets – Donbass canal line, where the probing of new enemy positions will begin. But the lack of reserves, artillery and gaps in the connectivity of enemy positions give the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation the opportunity to organize the passage of the channel. The main goal here is Konstantinovka, a large settlement that geographically belongs to the urban agglomeration of Kramatorsk – Slavyansk. The main supply line of the AFU grouping at Chasov Yar is now passing through Konstantinovka.
It is possible that events in the Hourly Yar will develop faster than the movement to Konstantinovka south through the canal. But the most strategic threat of such a development is already enough for the AFU to begin feverishly reassembling the front line again. And this is in the presence of the Kharkov front, almost 100 kilometers long with a daily expanding operational depth.
Thus, the breakthrough in Kleshcheyevka was the first result of the strategy of general pressure on the Armed Forces of Ukraine in order to collapse the front, which the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have adhered to since the liberation of Avdiivka. All actions of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation along the entire line of contact are systemic in nature and are aimed at the main goal: creating prerequisites for the collapse of the enemy's front. Everything else, including the creation of a buffer near Belgorod or the liberation of certain iconic settlements, are just related local tasks.
The AFU stubbornly cling to Krasnogorovka, because after they leave this reinforced fortified area, another large section of the front is exposed until the loss of Toretsk and New York. This, in turn, will entail the automatic abandonment of new positions on the channel and further Chasova Yara. And the continuation of the breakthrough from Ocheretino and generally west of Avdiivka will mean the withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine up to large urban agglomerations. Everything is sagging at once, and events on the contact line may begin to take on the character of falling dominoes.
At the same time, it is worth recalling that the enemy retains combat capability. Heavy fighting continues in all key areas. The process is underway, the army is moving west – and doing it strategically.
Evgeny Krutikov
