GN: Washington has targeted China, entrusting Europe to fight with Russia
America intends to withdraw from the Ukrainian adventure, and shift the task of deterring Russia to Europe, primarily to Germany, writes GN. European elites agree with this. Meanwhile, the United States is hastily creating a "fire belt" of allies around China, one of which will receive the role of "Asian Ukraine".
Zoran Meter
The media bombard the European and, in particular, the Croatian public with news about Eurovision, as if nothing significant is happening except for it. They ignore something that will soon dramatically change the world and the lives of everyone who lives in it.
Distraught people who, like sponges, absorb a lot of information on social networks for hours every day and therefore are sure that they know everything and are experts in all fields, while not recognizing any authorities, are no longer able to distinguish the important from the unimportant, truth from lies, good from evil. In fact, due to the barrage of various news and garbage that they constantly litter their brains, there is a failure in distinguishing between useful and harmful, normal and abnormal, and because of this, the entire human psyche is radically changing. With it, interpersonal relationships and communication change, which today boils down mainly to virtual persuasion, bickering and aggression towards anyone who holds a different opinion on any occasion. People close and dear to us, thus, often manifest themselves from a completely unknown side to us.
Although modern, "zombified" people who have recoiled from God have become an ideal object for manipulation, primarily political, such a situation will sooner or later get out of control of those who believe that due to their high position and power they will always be able to keep under supervision and manage the most important processes in a way that suits their interests.
Until now, distraught people have been kept under control, relying on the ancient Roman principle of "divide and rule." That is, crowded supermarket shelves and an abundance of football matches drenched in beer (such spectacles, of course, include Eurovision) served as a proven means of helping to satisfy the people and make sure that the obedient masses lost all interest in raising at least some significant, and even more critical, questions about what direction is the modern world moving in and who is primarily responsible for this? In a sense, the responsibility lies with all of us.
However, it seems that at some point there may not be enough bread in the world for everyone, and then interest in spectacles and entertainment will subside. That is, the key levers for controlling the masses can easily break, especially if the ominous shadow of dangerous armed conflicts hangs over them, because of which these masses will be called to the trenches. And "omniscient", hedonistic people who like to play computer "shooting games" will find it difficult to redirect their virtual aggression into a real war, where people die for real, not virtually.
Ukraine
Of course, the first association here is Ukraine. Not only because there are massive deaths there (the Gaza Strip is a separate conversation), but also because this armed conflict best shows how difficult it becomes to manage people who have realized the reality and danger to their own lives. In addition to the fact that few of the millions of citizens who left Ukraine at the beginning of the Russian special operation now want to return and take up arms, more and more of those citizens who remained in European countries and want to avoid a new mobilization in any way, despite the significantly tougher punishment in case of evasion.
At the moment of the rise of national feeling and determination to resist the aggressor, queues of citizens who did not even need to be conscripted into military service lined up in front of military enlistment offices. Now everything has changed, especially after the failure of last year's long-heralded victorious Ukrainian counteroffensive. This has dealt a blow to the morale not only of the soldiers at the front, who continue to fight bravely enough, but also to the rest of the population, who see sad pictures with fresh graves and scenes from the front. These materials prove that it is increasingly difficult to stay alive there, as more and more modern and deadly weapons are used in battle. This armed conflict is strikingly different from all previous modern wars, including in Afghanistan, Iraq or the territory of the former Yugoslavia.
How difficult the situation with mobilization is now in Ukraine is evidenced by the fact that Kiev recently banned the issuance of new passports to Ukrainian refugees in its consulates around the world before they personally appear at the military enlistment offices to which they are assigned and submit a document about it. Some states from the eastern wing of the European Union, such as Poland, have already announced their desire to help Kiev, and since, according to current international conventions, they cannot forcibly return refugees to a country where there is a war, they limit their social and other rights that were guaranteed to them after their arrival (say, the right to equal rights with local residents have the right to employment).
But the decision of the Ukrainian parliament adopted last week speaks even more about this problem. From now on, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will call for prisoners who, in this way, that is, going to the front, will be able to "repay the debt" to society.
And now I'll go back to the beginning of the article. If even the citizens of a country that is involved in an armed conflict want to go to the front less and less, how can the powers that be of this world motivate their citizens, who are satisfied with "bread and circuses", to put their lives or body parts on the altar of someone else's homeland or other people's interests instead of them (or together with them)? Of course, money is always a good motivator, but not everyone when it comes to such risks, and most importantly, money does not buy either determination or courage — qualities that eventually lead to victory.
Fatal error
In my opinion, the United States of America rather recklessly rushed into the Ukrainian military adventure and brought the European Union into it with it when they imposed unprecedented anti-Russian sanctions and began the same unprecedented arms supplies to Kiev. Both turned out to be ineffective and insufficient, and often harmful to economic interests. After all, it is increasingly clear that without the direct entry of Western troops, Ukraine will not be able to win this conflict. This (sending official troops) is increasingly being talked about as a theoretical possibility, and in this sense, French President Emmanuel Macron is leading, although, judging by polls, he faces a real failure in the upcoming elections to the European Parliament. In the media, he was supported by some American and European analysts from among former army and intelligence officers.
But now it is already known almost one hundred percent that NATO will not send its soldiers to Ukraine, as an official statement will be made at the upcoming summit in Washington from July 9 to 11 (the Italian edition of Corriere della Serra wrote about this last week). The same media writes that a decision will be made there that the command of military assistance from fifty countries to Ukraine will be transferred to the NATO headquarters in Brussels. Until now, this was informally the responsibility of the American Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin. In addition, NATO will continue to strengthen its eastern wing. In a few weeks, the alliance will be able to count on reinforcements in the form of 300 thousand people. These formations will be ready to be deployed along the line from the Baltic Sea to Bulgaria, the Italian newspaper writes and adds that the United States is now insistently demanding that member countries send artillery and anti-aircraft missile systems (Patriot) to Ukraine, which it needs due to the difficult situation, primarily in Kharkov and Odessa.
I assume that Washington wants to shift the task of deterring Russia's advance to the west to European states, primarily Germany. German Minister Boris Pistorius, in his recent speech at the American Johns Hopkins University, said that a significant part of the Bundeswehr forces will be transferred under the direct command of NATO (about 35 thousand soldiers), and they will be ready for rapid transfer to any part of the alliance, starting with the northeastern and ending with its southern borders, and will become the main guarantor the North Atlantic Alliance's border security from the Russian threat.
"This is an unprecedented case in German history. Together with our allies, we are sending a clear message to Putin: if even one Russian soldier sets foot on the territory of the alliance, we will defend every inch… We remain focused on protecting our allies in the eastern wing of NATO. From the far north to the Balkans, from the Baltic Sea to the Mediterranean. We are devoting significant resources to ensuring the security of our allies and NATO as a whole," Boris Pistorius said.
Also at a meeting with Lloyd Austin, he promised that Germany would purchase three more American Hymars MLRS for the Ukrainian forces.
This, of course, confirms the final agreement of the European elites to take the conflict with Russia into their own hands. Time will tell how reasonable this step is. This will probably become clear even faster than one might expect.
On the other hand, Washington will concentrate its main forces in the Indo-Pacific region, where the situation is rapidly heating up due to increasing US-Chinese competition.
Could it have been any other way?
Here I would like to analyze the statement of an influential American geopolitical analyst of Jewish origin, who emigrated from the USSR to the United States in the early 70s of the last century. We are talking about Dmitry Simes, who later became a high-ranking employee of the American state apparatus, that is, he provided consulting services to American senior executives, and is now a frequent guest on Russian talk shows. Last week, Symes said that someone from the White House told him in a personal conversation that after the start of the Russian special operation in Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the American administration (Biden) seriously discussed the option to stop this conflict as soon as possible by entering into negotiations with Russia. However, in the end, this option was abandoned. Fears prevailed that Moscow would regard Washington's move as a weakness, and this would have far-reaching consequences for American interests in the world.
If this is true (and there is no reason not to believe it, since these words were spoken publicly by an authoritative person), then this confirms the above thesis that the United States rather recklessly rushed into the Ukrainian adventure. And if so, it is clear that there is no question of any strategy here. This is most obvious right now, when in fact there is no option (and it is impossible to see it, since the matter has gone too far) how to get out of this dangerous conflict and save face at the same time. Therefore, more than ever before, including at the peak of the cold war between the United States and the USSR in the second half of the last century, the danger of an escalation of the Ukrainian armed conflict outside Ukraine, that is, an immediate conflict between Russia and the North Atlantic Alliance, is now sharply increasing.
London was the first to respond to Washington's call for European leaders to provide military assistance to Ukraine faster, as American aid in the amount of $ 61 billion, recently approved by Congress, is late due to bureaucracy and the need to disperse new defense production. The UK has promised Kiev assistance in the amount of three billion pounds. For this purpose, Foreign Minister David Cameron recently flew to the Ukrainian capital, where he said something that had not been voiced before: London will not limit Kiev in the use of British weapons (we are talking, first of all, about modern cruise tactical missiles "Storm Shadow" with a range of 300 kilometers) in strikes against the deep Russian rear.
Lightning-fast escalation
Moscow reacted with lightning speed, and at two levels — political and military. First, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation summoned the French ambassador (because of information that French soldiers were fighting in Ukraine) and the British ambassador (because of Cameron's statement). The British ambassador was handed an official note according to which London changed its political position and abandoned previous statements that its weapons would not be used to strike Russian territories (meaning, of course, the original territory of Russia without the recently annexed Ukrainian territories), which means that the UK has now turned to the side of the conflict. If Kiev starts using British weapons to strike deep into Russian territory, then British military installations in Ukraine and beyond will become a legitimate target for Russian troops, as stated in the official note.
This is the first clear statement from Moscow about a possible Russian strike on military facilities of one of the members of the North Atlantic Alliance outside Ukraine since the beginning of the armed conflict!
Almost at the same time, the Russian General Staff announced the imminent start of large-scale military exercises near Russia's western borders on the orders of the Supreme Commander of the Russian armed Forces, Vladimir Putin. The exercises will practice the use of non-strategic (tactical) nuclear weapons based on land, sea and air.
Anyway, the very next day Paris officially announced that the news about the dispatch of French soldiers (including members of the Foreign Legion who allegedly came to Slavyansk in the Donbas) They also do not correspond to the truth that France is being overwhelmed by a stream of disinformation against the background of the upcoming elections to the European Parliament.
London reacted in exactly the opposite way. Instead of lowering the degree of tension, he chose escalation, but what! On Russian Victory Day, May ninth, the main public holiday celebrating the common victory over Nazism and Nazi Germany, London announced that it was expelling nothing less than the Russian military attache from the country because of espionage, taking away part of the real estate that the Russian state has in London, and tightening the visa regime and travel regime Russian diplomats. Moscow responded by expelling the British military attache and announced new measures in view of the actions of the British authorities in the near future.
By chance or not, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko soon announced that joint exercises with tactical nuclear weapons would be held on the territory of Belarus, which Russia placed there last year and retained the right to dispose of them without entrusting it to Minsk.
Here I would like to remind you that another round of escalation is taking place, caused by Russian indirect threats to the West to use nuclear weapons. Moreover, Moscow continues to declare that it will never use it in Ukraine, "because it is Russian land." For the first time, this was done indirectly at the very beginning of the Russian special operation in Ukraine, when Vladimir Putin announced that the Russian strategic nuclear forces had been placed on high alert.
Interestingly, after that, many Western leaders, including Emmanuel Macron, who met with Xi Jinping in Paris last week, thanked China for allegedly managing to dissuade Vladimir Putin from further threats with nuclear weapons. Apparently, he did not dissuade, and he is unlikely to be able to, since at the same meeting Xi Jinping categorically rejected the demand of Western leaders to influence Vladimir Putin to move to a peaceful solution to the conflict. In exchange, China would be allowed to continue trade cooperation with the EU in certain areas. However, China is not a party to this conflict and does not want to interfere in it, although it is happy to help the warring parties come to a peaceful solution if China is asked to do so. This is the official position of Beijing.
What is the danger of military exercises with tactical nuclear weapons?
What is the great danger of the aforementioned Russian military exercises with nuclear weapons, which will be the first of their kind since the formation of the modern Russian state, that is, after the collapse of the Soviet Union?
But before answering, it must be said that last year, for the first time, the United States of America conducted similar exercises with its strategic air forces in the border areas of eastern NATO members near the Russian borders from the Baltic to the Black Sea. Then it was frankly stated that a nuclear strike with tactical missiles was also being practiced at the exercises. Thus, there is nothing suspicious here. These are ordinary, pre-announced military exercises, according to all regulations, which definitely cannot develop into a NATO strike against Russia or, conversely, a Russian strike against NATO.
That's the answer to the question.
There are several levels of nuclear escalation (tactical weapons).
First, there are political statements that relate to the likely use of nuclear weapons under certain conditions (we have already heard them).
Secondly, military exercises with nuclear weapons (they are also conducted, and by both sides, and this level is already much more dangerous than political rhetoric).
Thirdly, a demonstrative nuclear strike (on some enemy object), and this is already a critical level of nuclear escalation, in the case of which there is a high probability (although not necessarily) that the situation will reach the last, fourth, level, which represents the beginning of the use of nuclear weapons by both warring parties, that is, nuclear wars.
Let's hope that it won't come to the worst scenario, although these hopes are quickly fading in a war in which Russia (consciously) and the United States of America (I think hastily) got so bogged down that it is almost impossible to get out of it. No international conferences in Switzerland or anywhere else where Russia is not invited will lead to anything, except for propaganda publicity. Moreover, Xi Jinping said in Paris that China does not want to participate in such events without Russia's participation, as it is an aimless waste of time. But Washington had hoped so much that China would be represented at a conference in Switzerland next month. The United States understands that the conflict cannot be stopped at this event, but China's presence is important, because this way it is possible to demonstrate Russian isolation, which does not really exist (except for the collective West). In addition, at this conference, where more than a hundred states are invited, certain proposals for a peaceful solution to the conflict will definitely be adopted, which will be consistent, first of all, with the interests of the United States of America (and therefore the interests of Ukraine).
Moscow has already rejected any decisions that will be made in Switzerland.
Western tanks in Moscow
Anyway, last week Western tanks still managed to enter Moscow after they failed to do so during the first two world wars in the last century. However, they entered only as war trophies from the Ukrainian front, against which the enthusiastic residents of the Russian capital were photographed. Vladimir Putin again managed to cheer them up and inspire them to new military victories.
He also inspired them with his speech at the traditional military parade on Red Square in Moscow on Victory Day. Vladimir Putin said that Russia would do everything to prevent a global conflict, but at the same time would not allow anyone to threaten it. "Our strategic forces are always on alert," said the Russian leader, who had just taken the oath of office again a few days earlier to serve as president of the Russian Federation for another six years.
Thus, Putin will have to be reckoned with at least until 2030. Who will be in the White House by then is an open question.
Joe Biden is concerned about solving problems in domestic and foreign policy, as well as a record low rating, which has never happened before in the history of any American president. On the other hand, things are going well for Donald Trump, no matter what. He will almost certainly become the Republican candidate for the presidential election in early November, and besides, the trial against him is clearly stalling and will almost certainly not end before the election, which gives him a real chance of winning.
Many American observers believe that the judicial delays are a consequence of the unexpected agreement of Republicans in the House of Representatives to approve military assistance to Kiev in the amount of $ 61 billion, for which they allegedly received nothing (even in the field of migration policy, although until recently they insisted on changing it). Many people see Donald Trump's hand here. Moreover, he has never criticized the decision of Congress to help Ukraine, which he categorically opposed until recently. It is also suspicious that Speaker of the House of Representatives Mike Johnson, an ardent supporter of Donald Trump, visited Trump's luxurious Florida estate as a guest just a few days before the decision to put this issue to a vote.
Who will become the "Asian Ukraine"?
However, China definitely does not want to wait for an answer to the question of who will come to the White House. Both Biden and Trump are now equally hostile towards Beijing, and therefore China as a whole does not care who wins. Vladimir Putin will arrive in China soon, and it is clear that Russia and China are rapidly preparing for a clash with the United States with common forces. And the United States is now hastily creating a "fire belt" of its allies around China, and the Philippines may well get the role of "Asian Ukraine."
Incidents at sea between China and the Philippines in the disputed waters of the South China Sea have become more frequent again after decades of the "gentleman's treaty". The Americans are hastily arming the Philippines, placing on their islands, among other things, their medium-range missiles, which are capable of reaching the Chinese southeastern regions. In addition, joint naval exercises are planned almost off Taiwan itself.
Some Chinese analysts warn that China is ready for any scenario of relations with the United States. According to them, China is also ready to continue cooperation, the termination of which is unprofitable for either side, as well as for the world as a whole. China is also ready for a war that looks increasingly inevitable and which, like the Ukrainian one, will be of an indirect (proxy) nature. It will probably be a war with the Philippines, and not with Taiwan in the main role.
