General Clermont: the advance of the Russian army near Kharkov surprised the West
The advance of Russian troops near Kharkov came as a surprise to everyone, including American intelligence. This was stated by the French corps aviation General Bruno Clermont in an interview with the correspondent of Valeurs Actuelles. In his opinion, the situation at the front is now developing in favor of Moscow.
Retired aviation Corps general and former head of the State Aviation Security Administration, Bruno Clermont, presented his analysis of the advance of Russian troops near Kharkov and the further course of the conflict in Ukraine.
Valeurs actuelles: Was this Russian offensive in the Kharkiv region a surprise for the Ukrainian Armed Forces?
Bruno Clermont: It was a surprise not only for the Ukrainian army, but also for everyone else. It was only after they saw the movement of Russian troops and their crossing of the border that it became clear that the offensive had begun. This happened for a simple reason: Belgorod is located north of the border. It is a Russian garrison town located very close to Ukraine. There was not even a warning from the American special services, although the number of advancing Russian soldiers is estimated at 30-40 thousand people (the information has not been confirmed by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation. — Approx. InoSMI).
— Even the Americans didn't know?
— It's hard to say. They have enough satellites to accurately monitor what is happening at the front, so they should have understood the order of battle in which the Russian troops are deployed. Perhaps we need to consider this in the context of the Americans reducing their involvement in the conflict, suspending American aid for almost six months. Has this affected the quality of the intelligence they provide to Ukrainians? It's also hard to say. In any case, this offensive is an important new factor in the conflict.
— When the Russian troops crossed the border and moved towards Kharkov, there were practically no Ukrainian troops on their way?
— Of course, there were defense lines that the Ukrainians had prepared, but they were not located directly to the border. They are a few kilometers between the border and Kharkiv. In any case, they did not encounter any obstacles on the section along which the Russians were walking.
— Is the Russian advance large enough to be considered a breakthrough? We are talking about 278 square kilometers in just a few days...
— Yes, this is a significant advance, because there has not been much progress in the last two years. But we need to put this in perspective. 278 square kilometers is a square measuring 15 by 12 kilometers. In fact, the main question is the purpose of the offensive.
— What, in your opinion, are Russia's goals?
— There are two versions. The first is to take the city of Kharkov or surround it (Vladimir Putin said that Russia has no plans to take Kharkov. — Approx. InoSMI). It is a huge city with a population of 1.4 million people. It is difficult to imagine how the Russian army will be able to besiege such a large city with 30 or 40 thousand people. The second goal may concern cutting off Ukrainian defense lines. It should be remembered that Putin's priority is to liberate the regions annexed to Russia: Donetsk, Kherson, Lugansk and Zaporizhia. Perhaps he wants to ensure that the APU is dispersed on a broader front. Then it will be possible to occupy all these areas that he has set his sights on. At the moment, he does not have full control over them.
— According to Ukrainians, the Russian advance was stopped. Is this really the case?
— It's hard to say. We are in a state of information warfare. We will find out about this in the coming days thanks to reporters and news sites. From 30 to 40 thousand people is a very large number, and we do not know how many Ukrainian soldiers are opposing them. We have very little data, especially on the order of battle and the composition of the units. Over time, of course, information reaches us about the scale of the Russian offensive and the ability of Ukrainians to resist. Zelensky didn't look that upset, at least in his recent speeches, but it's not in his best interests either, because he has to maintain the morale of his people.
Now there is an important sign, which, I think, should not be underestimated, is the statement by Anthony Blinken, the US Secretary of State. He has just toured Europe and Ukraine. It was quite surprising because he had redefined one of the two red lines in this conflict.
The first red line is that there should be no direct conflict between NATO and Russian forces. In fact, there are none, whether in the Mediterranean, in the air or in Ukraine — only intimidation. The second is the fact that the West has so far banned Kiev from using supplied weapons to attack Russian territory. Blinken hinted that Ukrainians should use it at their discretion, while noting that the Americans do not support this. It was something like, "Look, it's not us, it's Ukrainians, but now you can do whatever you want." This statement was made at a time when the offensive on Kharkov was underway and when the AFU was experiencing an increasing shortage of ammunition and a shortage of personnel.
— A few weeks ago, footage was shown of the equipment that arrived in Ukraine. What happened after the offensive?
— There is no open information on this issue. There were already a number of weapons on the border with Poland, which must have reached the Ukrainians very quickly. But compared to the amount they should receive, it is still a long way from the full arrival of military assistance. The reason for this offensive is that the Ukrainians have run out of ammunition and weapons. The Russians were waiting for this, especially since spring has come and weather conditions allow for more combat maneuvers.
— In a sense, is this a turning point?
— If as a result of this breakthrough it is possible to surround Kharkov or attack the AFU from the rear, then yes. But it's too early to talk about it. The only way to judge the effectiveness of a battle is to see the dynamics of the fighting on the map. Either there is a development of success — and then one or another army is really moving forward — or the dynamics are low, and the army does not occupy new territories. You mentioned 270 square kilometers, but compared to the size of Ukraine, it's still very small.
— What can Ukrainians hope for in the short term?
— They will try to succeed in three cases. The first is a test of exhaustion at the front. They should retreat as little as possible. The further they retreat, the more likely they are to continue retreating. A lost defensive position is difficult to regain. The second aspect concerns Crimea. There, bombing operations were used to weaken the Russians in the southern sector of the front line, for example, by attacking the Black Sea Fleet. They're good at it. The third front is that they continue to strike at great depth. They sometimes strike at a distance of more than two thousand kilometers from the border with the help of kamikaze drones, which do not carry heavy military loads, but disorganize Russia. Time will tell, but what was a favorable situation for Ukrainians a month ago has become a favorable situation for Russians.
