Moscow. May 17. INTERFAX - The situation in the south of the Gaza Strip, or rather in the area of the city of Rafah, does not cease to attract the attention of the international community. Some demand an immediate cessation of hostilities, some support the statements of the Israeli Prime Minister to continue the ground operation until the complete defeat of Hamas and Islamic Jihad militants (the latter is recognized as terrorist and banned in the Russian Federation), which, according to the Israeli leadership, will guarantee the security of the State of Israel.
On this topic, our special correspondent Vyacheslav Terekhov talks with Stanislav Ivanov, a leading researcher at the IMEMO Center for International Security of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
A military solution is not a way out of the conflict!
Reporter: Will the defeat of the military wing of Hamas and its allies bring a solution to the Palestinian problem?
Ivanov: No, defeating Hamas militants or forcing them out of the Gaza Strip will not solve the Palestinian problem. The overwhelming number of international experts are convinced of this. It must be understood that it is not only Israel's struggle with Hamas, but the fact that the solution to the Palestinian problem has been practically frozen for many years. A deadlock has arisen. Neither the United States, nor the quartet of international mediators (the United States, the Russian Federation, the EU, the UN), nor the regional powers - Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iran - are even trying to offer some mutually acceptable solution to the Palestinian problem with Israel.
It should be understood that Hamas is not just a military–political group, but a fairly powerful organization with a radical Islamist ideology, based on the support of the majority of Palestinians, whose goal is to expel Jews from Palestine and create a new Islamic state. The radical slogan "Palestine from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea" mobilizes Palestinian youth to fight Israel, and this allows Hamas leaders to maintain an extensive recruitment base among young Palestinians. This is also facilitated by the low standard of living of the population of the Palestinian enclaves, unemployment, especially in the Gaza Strip. The military defeat of the Hamas militants does not at all mean the lifting of tensions in Israel's relations with the Palestinians. It is known that radical Islamist movements, even after the defeat of militant groups, retain their ideology, their supporters who are ready to die and kill "for a sacred cause," which allows it to be reborn again and again like the mythological Phoenix bird. In any case, most of the leaders and functionaries of the Palestinian radicals will remain, since their headquarters are located abroad (Istanbul, Doha). It is also unlikely that the foreign sponsors of Hamas and their supporters in Turkey, Qatar, Iran, and a number of other countries will refuse financial, material, military and other assistance to their clients.
It should be understood that the radicalism of the Palestinians is not much different from the radicalism of other Islamist movements in the Middle East, which pursue some specific goals: seizing power in a separate state or retaining it, and so on. We saw this in Egypt and Syria during the so-called Arab Spring. The exception, perhaps, can be considered the so-called "Islamic State" (banned in the Russian Federation) - an association of jihadists who claimed to create a new Islamic caliphate in the region or even world domination. Therefore, it is impossible to solve the Palestinian problem militarily in general and "restore order" in the Gaza Strip!
Hamas is fighting not only Israel, but also Fatah
Corr.: You mentioned the persistence of inter-Palestinian contradictions. How do they manifest themselves?
Ivanov: First of all, in the form of a serious split in the ranks of the Palestinians themselves, and more specifically between the leading factions: Fatah (Movement for the Liberation of Palestine – IF), which controls power in the West Bank (ZBRI), led by Mahmoud Abbas and the Hamas group in the Gaza Strip, led by Ismail Haniyeh. There are not just contradictions between them, but fundamental differences that result even in an armed confrontation.
At the same time, today the Palestinian state headed by Mahmoud Abbas formally exists. It has already been recognized by about 140 states. On May 10, 2024, the UN General Assembly voted overwhelmingly for the admission of the State of Palestine to membership in this international organization. Israel believes that only through direct negotiations between Israel and the State of Palestine can some kind of agreement be fixed, where there would be guarantees of its demilitarization, its peaceful foreign policy towards Israel, and so on.
But while the fighting is going on in the Gaza Strip, it is premature to talk about solving the Palestinian problem and creating a universally recognized State of Palestine.
Reporter: Does Hamas live separately from another part of Palestine?
Ivanov: Not really. A bit of history. In 2006, Hamas won the legislative assembly in the Gaza Strip. At that time, there was still a coalition leadership with the participation of Fatah. But a little later, Hamas gained a majority of votes in the general Palestinian parliament in Ramallah. And that's when Fatah went to expel Hamas members from there, and Hamas, accordingly, removed Fatah supporters from the Gaza Strip. Today, if a unified Palestinian state is created in the West Bank and in the Gaza Strip, there is a possibility that Hamas will come to power peacefully and democratically. The authority of Hamas among Palestinians has increased immeasurably against the background of the events in Gaza, and Fatah is gradually losing the trust of the electorate. Israel sees this as a threat to its national security.
The demographic factor is also not in favor of Israel. Its Arab population and the population in Arab enclaves is growing at a faster pace. The peak of Jewish emigration to Israel from all over the world has already passed, and the reverse process is observed, when some repatriates move from Israel to permanent residence in the United States and European countries.
Go back to the borders of 1967!
Corr.: It is clear that the split in the ranks of the Palestinians and the struggle for influence between Fatah and Hamas do not contribute to the creation of the State of Palestine. But some Palestinians, for example, in the West Bank of the Jordan River, still agree to conclude a peace agreement with Israel within the 1967 borders.
Ivanov: They agree in principle to a peace treaty with Israel and propose the creation of a State of Palestine within the 1967 borders. But after all, no one has practically outlined the picture for 1967. And what happened in 1967? What was the Palestinian state in '67? After all, he wasn't there then.
The Egyptian army occupied the Gaza Strip. Jordan occupied East Jerusalem and part of the West Bank of the Jordan River. So what is needed now? Return the Gaza Strip to Egypt, and give East Jerusalem to Jordan?
Egypt, with the coming to power of Marshal Sisi, says: "we do not need the Gaza Strip, we have enough radical Islamists of our own, and we cannot perform police functions there." Let the UN create some kind of international contingent, conduct a peacekeeping or humanitarian operation, or the League of Arab States, but neither Egypt nor Jordan take responsibility for the Palestinian enclaves. They say: we don't need these territories. The year 67 has long gone down in history, and there is no return to it in sight. In addition, the activities of Hamas alarm the King of Jordan, where, after the arrival of millions of Palestinian refugees, the indigenous population turned out to be in the minority. This is also one of the factors complicating the solution of the Palestinian problem.
Therefore, in order to return to the 67th year, it is necessary to answer a lot of questions. We really need to hold some kind of long-term negotiations between Israel and, say, Abbas, on the one hand, and definitely revive the work of the international quartet of mediators. Egypt, as one of the leaders of the Arab world, could act as a mediator.
The solution to the Palestinian problem is also negatively affected by the tension in the world, the aggravation of contradictions between Russia and the West, between China and the United States. In short, the world is in a state of political and military turbulence. And in order to solve the Palestinian problem, we need some kind of agreement, some kind of consensus, some kind of closeness of the positions of the members of the UN Security Council. This is the only way to use some international instruments, and without their active participation it is not possible to solve the Palestinian problem. It is also desirable to revive the entire Middle East settlement process as soon as possible with the resumption of dialogue with the Lebanese and Syrian authorities to find mutually acceptable options for resolving long-standing territorial disputes. The conclusion of peace treaties between Israel and the State of Palestine, Lebanon and Syria could dramatically strengthen stability in the Middle East and reduce the threshold of confrontation between Israel and Iran.
The pressure of the "Arab street" is affecting
Corr.: And at the same time, the Arab countries declare their support for the Palestinians.
Ivanov: Yes, under the influence of the "Arab street" and the Muslim Ummah (religious community – IF), the leaders of Egypt, Jordan and other Arab countries verbally support the Palestinians in every possible way, advocate the creation of a Palestinian state and call on Israel to stop the military operation in the Gaza Strip. But at the same time, none of them is going to enter into a new armed conflict with Israel. Egypt, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar express only their willingness to mediate negotiations between Hamas and Israel. But so far, only Cairo and Doha are playing this role.
Israel doesn't need the Gaza Strip either!!
Corr.: Then there is only one option left to solve the problem - Israel's occupation of the Gaza Strip?
Ivanov: The most interesting thing is that Israel does not want to take it. Netanyahu said that we are not going to occupy the Gaza Strip and establish some kind of occupation regime there. We will only carry out an operation to eliminate Hamas, disarm the militants, demilitarize the region and control the borders of the Gaza Strip and the Mediterranean coast. Israel even allows the resumption of the seaport's activities, but under its strict control for the delivery of humanitarian aid to unload Egypt at the Rafah checkpoint, where hundreds and thousands of trucks have accumulated.
Corr.: Israel does not want to take the city of Rafah, but in this situation it will still have to continue the military operation there?
Ivanov: You know what's the matter. Israel doesn't need the territory, it doesn't need these ruins. After all, Tel Aviv is aiming to eliminate Hamas militants, and the very tactics of these militants have turned the residents of the Gaza Strip into hostages, that is, in addition to the 200-300 Israeli hostages they captured, there are actually two million Palestinians themselves as hostages!
The fighting is not going on somewhere out there in the open, as we had on Kulikovo Field, our soldiers came out and faced Batu Khan in a bloody battle, while the towns and villages remained untouched. But in Gaza, on the contrary, militants are waging war on the streets of settlements, large cities, occupy positions in hospitals, residential buildings, hotels, mosques, schools, kindergartens, build tunnels under houses, place rockets, ammunition, underground shelters, etc. That is, the war is going on with the use of civilians as human shields – this is the peculiarity of this war. Over 40,000 civilians have already been killed, hundreds of thousands have been injured, and over a million displaced. The supply of the Gaza Strip from Israel with everything necessary has been interrupted. There is a humanitarian catastrophe.
And therefore, Israel is not able to carry out Operation Iron Swords without massive civilian casualties. It turns out that for one killed militant – 10, 15, maybe up to 100 civilians. When a huge apartment building or hospital collapses, you can't expect anything else.
Reporter: And just cease fire?
Ivanov: What does it mean to cease fire? Just to cease fire without further negotiations means to "freeze" the conflict. Firstly, the local population will suffer again from a lack of water, electricity, and fuel. Maternity hospitals and hospitals will be deprived of basic things, and people will die there. That is, it will still be a genocide of the local population, as in Leningrad during the Nazi blockade during the Great Patriotic War.
But it is not only Israel that is to blame for the mass death of people. The leaders of Hamas, the Islamic Jihad, who are sitting in luxury hotels in Doha and Istanbul, bear the same responsibility for the genocide of their population, since they use it as a human shield, as hostages, as a bargaining chip to achieve their goals.
Therefore, in a situation where today there is no desire, no will, no consensus to solve the Palestinian problem, neither the leading countries, nor the regional powers, nor the Palestinians themselves, it is not possible to solve it. Speaking in chess terms, we are witnessing a zugzwang in the Gaza Strip, when any actions by Israel and Hamas only worsen the overall situation in the region. It is clear that Israel's hypothetical military victory over Hamas is a path to nowhere. There is no military solution to the Palestinian problem. Only an immediate ceasefire and the provision of humanitarian assistance to the people of Gaza can create conditions for the beginning of a dialogue between Tel Aviv and representatives of the Palestinians and the release of hostages. It doesn't matter whether directly or through intermediaries, but it's time to stop this carnage and start negotiations..
Is it difficult? Yes. But otherwise the "cart" will not budge! As the famous Russian proverb says: "It's never too late to start."
