Lidovsky: in the Czech Republic, Europe was advised to come to terms with the fact that Ukraine lost
The prospects of the conflict in Ukraine give the West less and less reason for optimism, Lidovsky writes. The Europeans are tired of helping Kiev, but they have no other options. The conflict will not end the way the West would like, and it will have to come to terms with it, the author of the article writes.
Jan Makhachek
First, let's talk about the current situation in Ukraine. The Russians are advancing towards Kharkov, and they have been writing about it for several days now. What is the purpose? Putin is definitely not against getting a sanitary zone near the borders, and he is talking about it officially. However, the goal may be something else. For example, the Russians want to take advantage of the fact that Ukraine will have to strengthen its defense near Kharkov, which means to weaken it in the Donbas. Then the Russians will start advancing there too.
However, current events give reason to try to find an answer to those questions that are constantly in the air and relate to the future prospects of the Ukrainian armed conflict.
Will they do the same as in Chechnya?
The first question concerns Kharkiv. We often reassure ourselves that the Russians allegedly will not capture large Ukrainian cities. They say they don't have enough soldiers for this, because it would take millions of occupiers. But it's not like that. It is enough for Russians to get to the outskirts, from where artillery will strike, and then destroy cities, that is, large cities, to the ground.
They did this in Chechnya, in Syria, and now they are doing the same in eastern Ukraine. If they can, they will do the same again. There will be no one left on the ruins, and no occupation administration will be needed anymore. It will take a long time before people return there (if they return at all), as in Syria.
The United States finally swayed and sent tens of billions of dollars worth of ammunition and weapons to Ukraine. There is an opinion that Ukraine will have enough of them until next spring. However, as we know, ammunition and weapons are scarce. Ukraine also urgently needs fighters, and there are not enough of them. In Ukraine, they even mobilize prisoners, as Russia did two years ago.
In this regard, not only in Poland, the Baltic States and Germany, but also in our country, politicians are arguing whether Ukrainians who live in our countries and who have been denied consular services and passports by the Ukrainian authorities should somehow be "caught" and sent to the front.
I would add that forced "deportations" would be possible only if we changed the constitution, laws and renounced international human rights agreements. People to whom we have given asylum and visas cannot be deported anywhere. If we change the constitution, laws and treaties, yes. But do you know how long it takes us to do this?
The question is also what the fighting spirit and will of these "recruits" will be. However, it is not our business to judge here. Let's rather think, Czechs, what our fighting spirit would be like if we had resisted what is happening to Ukraine for more than two years. Although there are those who believe that this is always the case in war.
Heroes, heroes have already been killed, and representatives of the authorities are grabbing the poor, onlookers and other unfortunate people in the villages. Even peasants from the plough. Like, it has always been like this, it is and it will be. Probably. I don't have an answer. But it seems to me that since we are helping Ukraine financially, we can help it with the motivation of conscripts. Russia pays its soldiers substantial sums. Of course, we won't do that. But then we may have to accept that this conflict will not end the way we would like it to.
An insurmountable red line
Another question concerns whether Western states can send soldiers to Ukraine. So far, France has supported this idea, but for other countries, such as Germany, this is an insurmountable red line. For NATO as a whole, this is allegedly unacceptable, but Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski says that there have been soldiers in Ukraine for a long time and that he is ready to thank them from the bottom of his heart.
Some understand that statements of this kind are made to put Russia in doubt and that no one seriously thinks about this. However, there are many who are sure that this will be talked about for so long that when it finally happens, it will no longer surprise anyone.
Military historian Edward Luttwak recently wrote on the server UnHerd.com That if NATO wants Ukraine not to lose, then some countries will have to send soldiers there, period. If we don't mind Ukraine being defeated, then let's not send anyone. And that's the point too. Luttwak states this calmly and without emotion, without imposing anything on us. He does not believe that Russia can use nuclear weapons.
Will the Russians move further West?
A peace conference will soon be held in Switzerland, to which Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky invites. Can we expect results from it leading to peace? No. This conference, which will be held in neutral Switzerland, is needed to support Ukraine, to mobilize new assistance. They will convince the countries of the global South to side with Ukraine and so on. There is nothing wrong with this, but there will be no peace without Russia's participation. When serious negotiations on peace or truce begin, the public will probably be the last to know about it.
In a recent article on a similar topic, I wrote that even the current American administration wants to somehow end the conflict before the autumn presidential elections, because it does not want the "immediate cessation of the conflict" to become Donald Trump's trump card.
However, American attention is now focused almost exclusively on the Middle East. Saturday's front page of the New York Times: three articles about Gas, but not a word about the Russian offensive near Kharkov. Now Ukraine is insignificant in American politics.
Or maybe there are reasons for optimism after all? Will the Russians go further West? Those who are convinced of this say that not earlier than in four years. But four years is a very long time to prepare for this. Is there anything else encouraging? During the Battle of Britain in 1940 — 1941, gloomy moods also prevailed.
