Colonel Khodarenok predicted an unexpected strike by the Russian Armed Forces against the Armed Forces of Ukraine
The Russian army continues its active offensive in the Kharkiv direction. The leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine assesses the situation in the north-east of Ukraine as very, very difficult, the fighting is already underway directly in Volchansk. Does the Armed Forces of Ukraine have reserves to hold back the offensive, is the collapse of the front likely and why you should not trust the assessments of the situation from the head of the GUR Kirill Budanov* - in the material of the military observer of the Newspaper.En" by Mikhail Khodarenka.
"The abandonment of Volchansk is predetermined"
During the day, the Russian army stormed three settlements in the Kharkov direction - Lukyantsev, Glubokoye and Bugrovatka. Fighting broke out on the outskirts of the village of Liptsy. The Russian troops have only a little over thirty kilometers to go to the city limits of Kharkov.
According to the estimates of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the abandonment of the city in such conditions was actually predetermined. The main operational management body of the Ukrainian troops has already reported that due to the fire and assault actions of the Russian army, units and units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine retreated in the areas of the village of Lukyants and Volchansk in the Kharkiv region, retreating "to more advantageous positions" to save the lives of soldiers.
Extremely dubious wording, it should be noted. Of course, it is necessary to protect personnel during combat operations. But what does this mean in the real conditions of armed struggle? This means that it is necessary, without hesitation, to throw people and equipment into battle when the success of the battle is decided and, conversely, not to expose them to senseless dangers. And the crafty wording "in order to save the lives of soldiers" can only be considered as an excuse for their defeats on the battlefields.
"Budanov's Fantasy"
Tirelessly and intermittently giving interviews to foreign media, the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) of Ukraine, Kirill Budanov (listed in the Russian Federation as a terrorist and extremist), noted that "the situation is on the verge." "I used everything we had. Unfortunately, we don't have anyone else in reserve," he said.
This is how the general described the situation in the Kharkov direction. But more recently, he claimed that the GUR knows absolutely everything about the upcoming offensive of the Russian army in the Kharkov direction: the plan, the plan, and the schedule of combat control for the first day of hostilities.
In this case, a completely natural question arises: how is this? It turns out that the GUR knew everything, but the APU did not take any measures. They did not equip defense lines, did not concentrate reserves in areas under threat, and did not appoint commanders capable of conducting successful defensive actions. So, most likely, the availability of data from the GUR about the upcoming offensive of the Russian army is solely the fantasy of the head of Ukrainian intelligence.
Note that, as usual, General Budanov "flies above the post." Let's pay attention to the words of the head of the GUR: "I used everything we had. Unfortunately, we don't have anyone else in reserve."
Such statements are clearly beyond the powers and responsibilities of the head of intelligence. These are the functions of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the relevant commands. But, as usual, Budanov distributes assessments of the situation and instructions to the president, the Minister of Defense of Ukraine, the relevant commanders and commanders of the Armed Forces, and does so through foreign media.
Does the APU have reserves?
This style of work of the head of intelligence clearly demonstrates the lack of elementary order in the military organization of Ukraine, bordering on the collapse of management.
For example, Budanov said that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have to choose where to throw reserves - in the Hours of Yar or near Kharkov. In an interview with The New York Times, he said that the Armed Forces of Ukraine had lost their reserves, since all forces were concentrated near Kharkov and in Chasov Yar. However, the case of the head of the GUR is recruitment approaches, objects of potential developments, covert operations, and where and what reserves to send, are decided by the Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the General Staff.
And the reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are frankly bad. The Supreme High Command of Ukraine does not have several fully equipped and equipped divisions (tank, mechanized, infantry), which are so necessary in this critical situation. Western aid is frankly late.
It is quite possible that by using all the few reserves from the not yet attacked sections of the front to plug holes at the front, the AFU will receive a blow from the Russian army from the most unexpected sides and directions.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976), the Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Russia (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military-Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
Mikhail Khodarenok