Colonel Khodarenok does not consider Kharkiv to be the target of the Russian Armed Forces offensive that has begun
The fighting in the north-east of Ukraine has sharply intensified, the positions and defensive lines of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are being subjected to massive artillery and aviation strikes, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have made significant progress in a number of areas. Against this background, the AFU replaced the commander of the Kharkov group of troops. Whether Russia intends to take Kharkov or strikes distracting blows is in the material of the military observer of the Newspaper.En" by Mikhail Khodarenka.
"Forecasts of pseudo-specialists"
Fierce fighting is unfolding in the area of 27 settlements of the Kharkiv region. Representatives of the expert community have a question: how to assess the latest developments in the Kharkiv direction? Do they represent an offensive operation to take Kharkiv, or is it a series of diversionary strikes, or, in the end, are they just local battles?
Sources from the Ukrainian side hastened to report on the repulse of all possible attacks by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and have already concluded that the attempt of the Russian army to take Kharkov ended in failure (the word "failed" is also used).
Moreover, the Main Directorate of Intelligence (GUR) of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine stated that it has full information about the plan of the offensive operation of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in the Kharkiv direction. Of course, such messages should not be taken seriously.
At the same time, representatives of the Ukrainian expert community believe that the Russian army does not have the forces and means necessary to take Kharkov. Against this background, it should be recalled that the forecasts of specialists located, for example, in Lithuania, the Czech Republic or the United States, who do not have intelligence data at their disposal and are not part of the headquarters of the first echelon formations, should be regarded solely as personal opinions.
To the statements of such specialists about the lack of forces and means of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, a very legitimate question arises: where did they get such data? Sometimes even the general staffs of the warring parties make mistakes in assessing the operational and strategic situation, what can we say about the forecasts of pseudo-specialists thousands of kilometers away from the front line.
We have achieved significant success
Now to the point. So far, the actions of the Russian army in the Kharkiv direction in terms of the number of forces and means involved do not look like an offensive operation of an operational scale.
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation plans military operations, as a rule, in campaigns, and not in any particular direction (for example, Kharkiv): it is necessary to plan a whole series of operations for a sufficiently long time, provide them with all necessary material resources, organize appropriate military transportation and ensure that losses that will inevitably occur offensive combat operations.
What place is assigned to the battles near Kharkov in the plans of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation for the spring and summer of this year, one can only guess. It is quite obvious that no matter how the GUR of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine flaunts, such documents cannot become available to either the public or the intelligence agencies of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
So all the options for the proposed summer (or spring) offensive of the Russian army, and even more so the direction of the main attacks, can currently be considered only as assumptions and hypotheses.
Meanwhile, the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine assess the situation in the Kharkiv direction as very difficult.
According to experts, the difficulties for the Ukrainian side lie in the lack of ammunition for barrel artillery and guided missiles. Western assistance in the amounts required for the successful conduct of defensive actions by the Armed Forces of Ukraine has not yet been received, missiles and anti-aircraft missile systems are not enough to repel attacks by the Aerospace Forces of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.
And most importantly, the Ukrainian command, which is fighting in the Kharkov direction, does not have operational-level reserves trained and staffed according to wartime states, the introduction of which into battle would allow to reverse the course of hostilities in favor of the Armed Forces of Ukraine or at least to restrain the offensive of Russian troops.
Representatives of the Ukrainian expert community are also surprised by the fact that it seems like everyone in Kiev was waiting for the Russian army to strike in the direction of Kharkov, but they did not prepare the engineering barriers necessary for defense, both mine-explosive and non-explosive.
Against this background, the AFU replaced the commander of the Kharkov group of troops. Instead of Yuri Galushkin, who held the position of commander of the Khortytsya operational and strategic group of troops, Brigadier General, Deputy Chief of the General Staff for Military Training Mikhail Drapaty was appointed.
The Ukrainian military also has great complaints about the quality of the prepared defensive lines, the construction of which was so advertised in the media. Fighters and commanders of the Armed Forces of Ukraine tend to explain the successes of Russian troops in many ways precisely by these circumstances.
It may turn out that the plans of the Russian General Staff for the upcoming spring-summer campaign contain completely different features and details, and the main blow of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will be delivered not in Kharkov, but in a completely different direction and with qualitatively different forces and means. However, at this stage it is anyone's guess.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976), the Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military-Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
Mikhail Khodarenok
