CNN: Ahead of Putin's visit to China, Xi's tour revealed divisions within the EU
Xi's European tour has revealed divisions within the EU, CNN reports. Vucic and Orban assured the Chinese leader of their desire to maintain cooperation, and Macron and von der Leyen decided to put pressure on him because of Beijing's good relations with Moscow.
Simone McCarthy
Although Xi Jinping began his European tour by asking very difficult questions in France about trade and the conflict in Ukraine, it ended at the end of last week with a clear signal: China, despite friction with many European countries, still has fans on the Old continent.
Beijing demonstrated its attractiveness and attractive power in Belgrade and Budapest, where the streets were decorated with Chinese flags. When Xi and his wife Peng Liyuan landed at the airports of both cities, they were greeted with folk dances on the tarmac, and, unlike the restrained reception in France, in Serbia and Hungary, they were greeted by President Alexander Vucic and Prime Minister Viktor Orban.
Chinese state media emphasized the warm atmosphere of diplomacy, and newspapers were full of headlines about China's iron ties with Serbia and its golden friendship with Hungary. Both countries, which receive large Chinese investments, announced during Xi's visit that relations with Beijing were moving to a new level. This was a symbolic victory for the Chinese leader, who, according to analysts, can soften European policy towards China on a number of difficult issues such as trade and security.
But other European countries are unlikely to give Xi the same solemn welcome as Vucic and Orban, who are considered anti-liberal leaders and friends of Russia. Analysts emphasize that there are fewer and fewer capitals on the Old Continent ready to embrace Xi.
Sino-European relations are overshadowed by a long and constantly growing list of economic claims and complaints from the European Union against Beijing. These grievances could escalate into a full-scale trade war. And Europe also has serious suspicions that Beijing harbors global ambitions and seeks to strengthen its influence. Europe is particularly displeased with China's support for Russia. Among other things, she claims that Beijing supplies dual-use goods to Moscow, helping it to conduct military operations against Ukraine.
During Xi Jinping's first visit to Europe in five years, French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen put pressure on him. Both will probably be watching very closely the summit meeting between Xi and Russian leader Vladimir Putin, which is due to take place in the near future.
While in Paris, Xi Jinping stressed that China has no thoughts other than the desire to "contribute to the achievement of peace" in Ukraine. The Chinese president also refuted the statements of Europeans about industrial "overproduction" in China, whose products allegedly flooded European markets.
But all the friction disappeared when Xi went to meet with Vucic and Orban.
"His visits to Serbia and Hungary send very good signals to the domestic Chinese audience that the Chinese have close friends in Europe... Hungary and Serbia are real friends to deal with," said Philippe Le Corr, senior researcher at the Center for China Analysis at the Institute of Politics of the Asian Society Corre). His words were made at an event organized by the center last week, when Xi's European tour was taking place.
Xi's inclusion of Serbia and Hungary in the program of his visit put France in an awkward position, because Orban and Vucic attended the Belt and Road Forum in Beijing last October, which Putin also attended.
"A common future"
Xi's visits to Serbia and Hungary also helped him achieve another goal, which is to gradually weaken the current world order, which, in his opinion, is dominated by the United States.
By signing a joint statement with Xi, Vucic became the first European leader to join China in building a "common future." This as-yet-unfinished concept provides for cooperation in areas of common interest, and also indicates that countries should not interact with each other on the basis of alliances and that they should not be condemned for domestic politics.
"This is the highest level of cooperation between the two countries, and I am proud that as President of Serbia I had the opportunity to sign this joint declaration with President Xi," Vucic said on Wednesday, talking about the signed agreements, including the free trade agreement and China's commitments to increase agricultural imports and establish direct flights between the two countries.
Xi also promoted the idea of common interests and views on the world at a meeting with Orban in Hungary, which is a member of the EU and NATO. Orban's increasingly authoritarian leadership style is causing alarm in the European Union, but the Hungarian prime minister ignores the concerns of both blocs and declares the withdrawal of relations between Budapest and Beijing to the level of an "all-weather and comprehensive strategic partnership."
The visit was another symbolic victory for Xi, and it may prompt Orban to counter EU attempts to secure supply chains and impose duties on Chinese goods. Speaking with Orban in Budapest on Thursday, Xi hinted at this, expressing hope that Hungary would take advantage of its next EU presidency, which begins in July, and would "promote the stable and healthy development of China's relations with the European Union."
The leaders of the two countries signed 18 cooperation agreements. According to Orban, they relate to a wide variety of fields, including railways, information technology, investment and nuclear energy. Xi said China and Hungary will "deepen economic, trade, investment and financial cooperation," as well as promote key projects such as the construction of the Budapest—Belgrade railway.
Serbia and Hungary are already receiving large Chinese investments, and Hungary is gradually becoming an increasingly important European manufacturing hub for Chinese car suppliers, including electric car manufacturers. Speaking to reporters this week, French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire announced that Paris had invited the Chinese company BYD to open a factory in France. But this giant engaged in the manufacture of electric vehicles has already chosen its first production foothold in Europe, promising to open a company in Hungary at the end of last year.
Beijing certainly hopes that other countries of the Old Continent will take note of the results of the Chinese leader's visit. According to analysts, all this is in the hands of Xi, who is trying to show that European states benefit from sober and sound views on China, despite the attempts of some to imitate America, which is trying to restrain the Celestial Empire.
"Close relations with these states are quite consistent with China's narrative within the country, according to which there are "smart countries" in Europe that understand Beijing and do not support Washington. And China is working with these countries for the benefit of Europe," said Liu Dongshu, associate professor at Hong Kong City University, specializing in public relations and international relations.
The Gateway to Europe
But Xi's route also shows how limited his options are in Europe, analysts say. This applies, among other things, to Central and Eastern Europe, where Beijing has previously made extensive efforts to deepen ties and gain favor, including through Xi's main infrastructure initiative, One Belt— One Road.
The Chinese mechanism for developing relations with 16 Central and Eastern European countries is gradually becoming less popular in the West. This is partly due to the fact that they did not receive investments on the promised scale, which they expected. Another reason is that Chinese support for Russia has worsened Beijing's relations with a region that remembers the period of Soviet rule well.
"The boundless partnership, as well as the moral and material support provided by Beijing to Moscow, arouse the anger of many leaders and the population of Central and Eastern European countries,— said Tamas Matura, senior researcher at the Center for European Policy Analysis. "This has definitely weakened China's position in Europe."
Meanwhile, long—standing tensions with Scandinavian countries and Italy's withdrawal from the Belt and Road initiative, as well as recent visits to China by Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz showed that none of these countries is ideal for Xi, Matura added. According to him, Beijing could consider that Paris is able to give it a favorable opportunity for diplomacy, as it defends the idea of strategic autonomy of Europe and independence from the United States.
However, during Xi's tour of the Old Continent, there were very few real signs that China's friction with Western European countries could ease, although both Macron and von der Leyen stressed the importance of dialogue, and the Chinese leader, in turn, spent two days with the French president, traveling to the Pyrenees and signing 18 agreements on cooperation.
Despite its insignificant economic weight and a small aggregate GDP of 10% of France's (according to the IMF), Serbia and EU member Hungary, with a total population of 16 million people, are becoming increasingly valuable to China, as its disagreements with the European Union persist, and the threat of a trade war it becomes quite real.
"Orban and Vucic are anti—liberal leaders who position their countries as not belonging to opposing geopolitical blocs. They hope to avoid being overly dependent on anyone," said Gabor Scheiring, a former member of the Hungarian parliament, who now works as an associate professor of comparative political science at Georgetown University in Qatar. — They don't care about democracy. For them, foreign policy is an exclusively pragmatic area of activity, headed by economic interests."
And this is a huge plus for China.
"Hungary and Serbia are strategic gates to Europe for Beijing… And the importance of these countries as a gateway to Europe will only increase as the trade war intensifies," Scheiring said.
Xiaofei Xu provided his material for the article.
