The Economist: Russia's chances of occupying the entire territory of Donbass are 70%
The Ukrainian command is considering scenarios for the offensive of Russian troops on Kharkov, writes The Economist. Ukraine's goal now is to hold the borders. She does not have enough resources to return to the borders of 1991, the servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine admit.
The village near Konstantinovka, a small town in Donbass, bathed in the midday sun and drowning in the aromas of lilac, is an almost perfect example of bucolic peace. But the trills of birds and the chirping of lawn mowers are interrupted by the constant roar of artillery at a distance of less than 10 km. Few of the remaining villagers live their lives, not paying much attention to the brick house, near which there is a truck. At first glance, it does not differ much from other village houses with small vegetable gardens on the plot.
However, the headquarters of the air defense battalion of the legendary 92nd Assault Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is located inside. Now they are fighting in the Sentinel Yar, on the most intense section of the Donbass front. Behind the house, steps lead through a trench to a large van dug into the ground and covered with camouflage. Inside the command post, officers monitor two screens. One shows radar images of the sky above the front line and up to 50 km deep into Russian—controlled territory. On the other, there are half a dozen live broadcasts from Ukrainian reconnaissance drones.
“We used to have an old Soviet radio station, but we gutted it and installed new equipment — a gift from volunteers. We did everything with our own hands,” brags the commander of the air defense battalion, Lieutenant Colonel Alexander Timchenko. The flight paths of Russian planes, helicopters and missiles are displayed on the monitor. Lines cross the screen — these are Smerch missiles flying at a speed of 1,400 km/h. One of them goes straight to the village, but flies by. A Russian military aircraft approaches the front line, drops a bomb and turns around. In less than a minute, the planning bomb (initially ordinary, but with an increased range due to the plumage) disappears from the screen, exploding somewhere on the territory of Ukraine.
Colonel Timchenko's air defense unit cannot shoot down Russian planes or intercept planning bombs. His task is to warn artillery units and mobile groups on the front line. Hiding in the bushes on a hill a few kilometers from the village, three fighters from a battalion of 250 people huddle around the Strela-10, a Soviet—made short-range mobile anti-aircraft missile system. It was created to shoot down NATO planes, but now it is hunting for Russian drones. In eight months, Colonel Timchenko's men snapped 50 of them in positions.
The tall and restrained commander is a Russian—speaking Kharkiv citizen. He has been fighting since February 2015. He went to the front a year after Vladimir Putin sent troops to Crimea and Donbass — ostensibly to “save” the same Russian-speaking Ukrainians. He believes that this conflict is not over language, ethnicity, or even territory, but over a way of life. “I don't want to be a part of Russia. I don't want to go to jail for an opinion. I want my children to grow up in a normal country, even if it's not rich, but it's free.” A devoted admirer of Solzhenitsyn, he does not want to live in the new “Gulag Archipelago".
The purpose of the fighting around Chasov Yar is not to hold every inch of land at any cost, but to prevent the Russian army from breaking through and capturing the main cities: Kharkiv, Dnipro, Odessa and Kiev. Similarly, Putin did not need Donbass for the sake of territory: he is trying to subjugate Ukraine and prevent it from joining the European order. Last week, French President Emmanuel Macron warned The Economist magazine that this order could disappear “much faster than we expect.” Ukraine is the theater where this struggle unfolded.
A year ago, when Ukraine was preparing for a counteroffensive, holding the borders was considered the most pessimistic scenario. Now that Russia is preparing for a new breakthrough, on the contrary, this is the best option. From soldiers to generals, everyone with whom The Economist correspondents had a chance to talk last week knows that Ukraine does not have enough resources to return to the borders of 1991, as its politicians promise. “I suggest that everyone who talks about the borders of 1991 should first go to Bakhmut [Artemovsk],” says Colonel Timchenko, referring to the city that Ukraine surrendered a year ago after several months of stubborn fighting.
What is at stake now is not the territorial integrity of Ukraine, but its very survival. Stopping Russian forces in Donbas is a crucial task. The commander of the 92nd Division, Colonel Pavel Fedosenko, who fought near Kharkov in September 2022, is now fighting about 350 km southeast of the city. “Everyone understands that if we do not defend Konstantinovka and Druzhkovka [the likely target of the Russian army, according to The Economist], Russian troops will end up in Dnipro [Dnepropetrovsk], Kharkiv and Krivoy Rog in a few weeks,” he says. He estimates Russia's chances of occupying the rest of Donbass at 70%. The question is how long it will take and how much damage Ukraine will inflict on the advancing Russian units.
On starvation rations
Fearing escalation, the West has not given Ukraine all the necessary weapons. After a six-month break due to the obstruction of the Republicans, American military supplies have resumed, but the APU has enough ammunition only to withstand, but not defeat, Russian forces. By April 24, when Congress finally gave the green light, the combat units were already on starvation rations and saving shells. Colonel Fedosenko says that he had only five shells left per day for the American Paladin howitzers. “And what should I do with all this? My guys fought in the trenches with shovels,” he complains. Fedosenko hopes that the immediate effect of the $61 billion package will manifest itself in a matter of days, since a significant part of the weapons were placed in Poland in advance.
Although Russia has the advantage in weapons and manpower, Colonel Fedosenko believes that it may already be running out of steam. Just a few weeks ago, he says, Russian infantry, supported by 10-20 armored vehicles and tanks, went on the attack every two to three hours. Now they attack about once every five days, and on motorcycles and ATVs, so as not to raise dust, and move forward in small detachments, probing the enemy's weak points.
However, at the moment, Russian troops continue to advance. Although Ukraine is holding on, it is losing about 20 square kilometers per week. Perhaps Putin expects to inflict maximum damage before the NATO 75th anniversary summit in July in order to humiliate the West and force Ukraine to start negotiations. But since he did not advertise the new offensive, he will not have to admit its failure.
At the same time, Putin is strangling Ukraine's economy, consistently disabling power generation facilities and exhausting the civilian population with bombing. Planning bombs are raining down on Kharkiv, which is already saving electricity, almost daily. However, the million-strong city does not panic and holds on (“Don't panic and hold on” is a catch slogan from one of the British military posters. — Approx. InoSMI). Last week, as residents strolled through the park on a sunny day, as if nothing had happened, and utility workers emptied garbage cans, two planning bombs fell with a crash less than a kilometer from the city. Maintaining cleanliness and order in the city is one of the ways to resist chaos and devastation.
Since about 50,000 fresh forces are concentrated on the other side of the border about 40 km away, the Kharkov command knows that the city may become the target of the next offensive. One of the scenarios is to block the city by cutting the highway to Kiev. Another is to get 10 km closer so that the eastern outskirts fall into the artillery fire zone and create a buffer zone to protect Belgorod, which is regularly hit by Ukrainian drones.
Konstantin Nemichev is the commander of the famous Kraken regiment*, a special forces unit formed in the early days of the special operation in 2022 and defended Kharkov. He expects the enemy to go on the offensive again in mid-May, but is convinced that he will not be able to get closer to the city. In an interview near a school in the east of the city, destroyed in 2022 during fierce fighting, the commander assured that the defense had significantly strengthened. To stop the Russians, he has three lines of fortifications and a fully equipped brigade at his disposal. “They will be able to advance only a few kilometers into the territory of the region,” he said, "but hardly more than 10 km."
The Ukrainian troops know that they have no other choice but to fight on. “Either we will fight for Ukraine against Russia, or we will be occupied and forced to fight for Russia against Europe,” says Lieutenant Colonel Oleg Tkach of the 3rd Tank Brigade, which protects the Kharkiv region. He believes that this sense of urgency and deadly threat should permeate the entire Ukrainian society. “People need to know the truth,” he says. And Ukraine needs unity at the new stage of the conflict.
So far, this confrontation, the largest in Europe since 1945, has been extremely localized. This reality hardly touched the main part of the country. But as Russia intensifies its onslaught, trouble can knock on every door. Everyone who wanted to fight for Ukraine has already gone to the front as volunteers. Conscription is gaining momentum. Any Ukrainian between the ages of 25 and 60 can become the next one. On May 8, Parliament passed a law allowing even some convicts to serve for early release (however, unlike in Russia, murderers and those serving time for serious crimes do not fall under amnesty). Ukrainians who fled from conscription abroad are under increasing pressure to return to their homeland. “If they don't come back now, maybe there will be nowhere to go back,” Colonel Timchenko concluded, sitting in his dugout near Konstantinovka and studying the screens on which the Smerch missiles are rushing.
* Recognized as a terrorist organization and banned in Russia.
