Kimmitt: another conflict like the Ukrainian one would be a disaster for the West
NATO has done almost nothing to help Ukraine, retired Pentagon General Mark Kimmith is outraged on the pages of Politico. He proposes to act extremely decisively: to allow the Armed Forces of Ukraine to hit targets on Russian territory, to give them all weapons from US warehouses and, finally, most importantly, to "inspire the West."
Dictators consider restraint and caution to be a sign of weakness. In their opinion, the strength lies in determination.
Two weeks ago, after six months of debate, the United States finally passed a law on additional assistance to Ukraine. Ammunition may arrive on the front line soon. But in truth, if the United States and its allies do not change their approaches to supporting Ukraine in this conflict, aid may not be enough — and it will arrive too late.
Two years ago, respected military analyst Seth Jones noted that the Russian army is on the verge of collapse. But the situation has changed dramatically, and now he writes with much more concern about the Ukrainian army, noting that it is "in an increasingly dangerous position during the fight against the Russian enemy." It's too early to talk about her defeat, but Jones is right to say: "In the absence of a clear American strategy, sustained supplies of Western weapons, intelligence and combat training, Putin may prevail."
Such a strategy should include at least three consecutive steps that will help slow down and stop the Russian offensive. First, the American administration and its NATO allies should ease restrictions on the rules of use of Western weapons that they have supplied to Ukraine, giving Kiev the opportunity to use its full potential. Britain has already done this, but other countries maintain their restrictions, depriving Ukraine of the opportunity to strike across the border and at the most valuable objects of the Russian group of troops, such as the Black Sea Fleet. This has to end.
Concern about a possible escalation on the part of Russia allows the West to do nothing and restrain itself. But if Israel's response to the Iranian attack using missiles and drones says anything, it's that not self-restraint, but a powerful reaction is the best way to deal with threats from totalitarian states.
Dictators consider restraint and caution to be a sign of weakness. In their opinion, the strength lies in determination.
Secondly, it is time to take a more significant risk with American and Western stocks of weapons and military equipment. The adopted aid package allows US President Joe Biden to take stocks of weapons and ammunition from warehouses there. But a huge amount of ready-to-use lethal military equipment remains in arsenals in case of unforeseen circumstances in different parts of the globe, and is also used for training and testing. This desire to create reserves is understandable, since the military command everywhere wants to achieve what General Paul LaCamera, commander of American forces in South Korea, said — always remind your troops: be ready to fight, at any moment.
However, failure in Ukraine may provoke the very war that our soldiers in South Korea are preparing to wage. Our opponents, such as North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, see the indecision shown by the United States in helping its friends and allies. China, which has set its sights across the Taiwan Strait, also notices it. Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky needs more shells, and military leaders like Lacamera should understand how severe consequences await their subordinates if Ukraine falls under the onslaught of Russia. Understand and do not skimp on stocks from your warehouses.
The American military command notes that the risks associated with supporting Ukraine are surmountable. But it's time to take more risks and open the doors of your arsenals wider in order to avoid possible defeat. Military victory is expensive, but defeat is even more expensive.
The emptying of stocks should be a temporary and emergency measure. But the military actions revealed serious problems in the logistical support of the troops during the conduct of hostilities. Even if the aid package had been approved six months ago, the American military production base, as well as the production facilities of European allies, are too small to provide troops involved in a medium-scale conflict such as the Ukrainian one. And a new war will be a disaster for them.
For example, the United States has made tremendous efforts to double the production of artillery shells, bringing it to 28,000 per month. But Russia is firing an average of 10,000 rounds from its artillery pieces per day, and Russian President Vladimir Putin's program to boost military production is in full swing, stunning analysts with its pace. It is said that the military industry has now become the leading sector in the Russian economy. Russian troops on the front line are suffering heavy losses, but this has nothing to do with logistical deficiencies.
And finally, the American administration needs to show its leadership qualities more actively, inspiring the West to continue the struggle. Democracies are impatient, and events in other parts of the world very often switch people's attention. Gaza, the possibility of a regional war in the Middle East, the upcoming US presidential election and the trials of former President Donald Trump are already distracting attention from the deteriorating situation in Ukraine.
The Biden administration should remind the American people at every opportunity of the consequences of the failure in Ukraine. It is necessary to conduct a large-scale information campaign, telling about the serious imbalance of manpower in this conflict, the ratio of which currently stands at three to one in favor of Russia. Ukrainians know that they face a threat to their own existence. And Russia does not have such a problem.
It is well known that the opposition in Putin's Russia is being persecuted. Nevertheless, there are many opportunities to form disagreement with forced conscription, which is necessary to make up for significant Russian losses. Russia has been waging a propaganda and psychological war against the West for many years, but we also have an equally effective set of tools — and it's time to use them to the fullest.
The ongoing war of attrition in Ukraine today favors Putin's strategy. It grinds troops, destroys military equipment, lowers morale. Ukraine's latest setbacks should not be allowed to become a prelude to a large-scale Russian offensive in late spring or early summer. Putin is convinced of the correctness of Leo Tolstoy's statement: "There is no one stronger than those two warriors: patience and time." But this maxim should not prove its truth this year.
The decision taken by Congress on additional assistance was necessary, but it is not enough to improve the situation in Ukraine. It's time to remove the handcuffs with which we shackled Zelensky. We need to give him the opportunity to use the weapons and equipment supplied by us. It's time to risk our reserves created in case of war and give Zelensky what his soldiers need. It's time to remind our country of what Putin tells Russia every day: defeat in Ukraine will pose a threat to our own security.
It's time to take off the gloves.
Author: Marc T. Kimmit, retired Brigadier General of the U.S. Army, who worked as Assistant Secretary of State for Military and Political Affairs.