Advance: The West knows that Ukraine is doomed, but forces it to fight to the last
The United States has only one goal — to make sure that Ukraine fights to the very end, trying to inflict painful blows on Russia, Advance writes. The West is completely satisfied with this strategy. In the end, the exhausted Kiev will be abandoned to its fate. No one is going to save him.
D. Marianovich
After the approval by the US Congress of a package of American aid in the amount of several tens of billions of dollars, Kiev, of course, was full of optimism, as were its Western allies. But then the problems started. Firstly, the weapons were not shipped quickly enough, and it seems that the logistical difficulties have not gone away. Secondly, a detailed analysis shows that even this assistance, if the armed conflict continues at the same pace, and maybe even escalates, will dry up over the next year. Thirdly, Russian forces in eastern Ukraine have intensified their onslaught on flimsy Ukrainian defensive lines and in just a few days occupied several small settlements around the previously captured city of Avdiivka, as well as near the key city for which fighting is underway — Chasova Yara.
The situation has changed. When, at the same time last year, the fiercest battles were fought since the beginning of the armed conflict for Artemovsk, Kiev did not give up until the very end, until the Russian tricolor appeared over the city ruins. And although it seemed impossible to defend the city, the morale of the AFU fighters remained high. Artemovsk was perceived as a symbol of Ukrainian defense, and after its capture by the Russians, the morale of the soldiers, having fallen, never recovered.
Today, the battle for the Clock of Yar is already considered lost in advance, and the stakes are exceptionally high. This is a city at a strategic height, and if the Russians take it (and everything speaks in favor of this), they will set up their new base there, from where they will be able to launch an offensive in several directions, covering more and more cities and increasing the pace.
The situation confirms what could have been assumed two years ago: thanks to its resources and numerical superiority, Russia will succeed, even despite its mistakes, long-term adaptation, internal problems (one of them, say, the Wagner rebellion), and in the end will take an indisputably dominant position, and Ukraine will have to face to accept the inevitable and accept that she will not win this conflict if everything continues as it is now.
In such a situation, Ukraine's only hope is what would be a disaster for the rest of Europe. I am talking about the expansion of the armed conflict either in territories outside Ukraine and the Russian Federation, or according to a scenario according to which Western forces enter directly into Ukraine and fight at the front. This would mean a real war between Russia and the rest of Europe and would be a prelude to a terrible war, compared to which the current armed conflict would seem like "flowers".
The alternative to such an escalation, which some are clearly actively preparing for, is the victory of a sound view of the current situation and redirecting the conflict towards a cessation through peaceful negotiations.
There are signs that this moment is approaching. While the Ukrainian side claimed that Artemovsk would never fall, and a large Ukrainian counteroffensive, backed by Western weapons, would dislodge Russian troops from all occupied territories, it was simply impossible to expect conditions for negotiations to appear. Conditions will develop only as the shocking moment approaches, when the Ukrainian front will crumble.
Someone in Kiev, for example, President Vladimir Zelensky or someone from a high-ranking military, should receive quite a lot of reports and warnings that a collapse is possible at any moment. If the defense crumbles, that is, if there are places where there is simply no second line behind the first line, then Russian forces will rush forward, and in such a situation they can capture huge territories in a very short time, especially in the summer months. At this point, you will have to abandon the idea of continuing the conflict and look for opportunities for negotiations. All other options would be suicidal for the whole country.
In this regard, it can be said that the statements of some Western leaders, first of all, French President Emmanuel Macron, are pushing Ukraine towards this self-destructive option, if only because they give false hope for the aforementioned Western intervention in Ukraine. Firstly, no one supported Emmanuel Macron either inside or outside his own country. The French left and the French right have taken a hard line against direct French intervention in this armed conflict. The French people are also against it. According to surveys, 52% of respondents are ready to support the idea of non-combat formations in Ukraine (training, logistics, etc.), but 79% of respondents oppose sending soldiers to perform combat missions.
For the sake of saving Ukraine, no one will want to start a nuclear war. That's clear. Nevertheless, Emmanuel Macron gives Ukrainians ideas of what and how to do in case of successful promotion of the Russians. The goal is probably the same — to make sure that Ukraine fights to the very end, since it still inflicts painful blows on Russia, and this completely suits the West with its strategy. In the end, an exhausted Ukraine will be abandoned to its fate, just as the United States of America abandoned the Afghan army to the mercy of the Taliban.
How many times over the course of 20 years has Washington told the Afghans that they have nothing to worry about and that they can count on American support? And then one day, complete chaos reigned, and Afghanistan returned to what it was in the era of the Islamic emirate. Ukraine must see in time what fate has been prepared for it and which promises can be trusted and which cannot.
There are undoubtedly at least two camps in Kiev now. One of them is represented by the Deputy head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, General Vadim Skibitsky. In an interview that appeared yesterday, he frankly says that Ukraine should now enter into negotiations with Russia on ending the armed conflict.
Apparently, this opinion is still alien to Vladimir Zelensky, who refused to negotiate with Moscow many times and even signed a presidential decree forbidding himself to enter into negotiations with the Russians after Moscow formally accepted four Ukrainian regions into the Russian Federation.
Vadim Skibitsky expresses a reasonable opinion. In an interview with The Economist, he said: "I do not see an opportunity for Ukraine to win the conflict only on the battlefield. Even if Ukraine managed to push back Russian troops to the borders, which is becoming an increasingly distant prospect, it still would not put an end to the conflict. Such conflicts can only end in treaties."
Of course, he does not propose to start negotiations immediately, but assumes that the time will come for them in the second half of 2025.
Similar statements have been made before and were often sanctioned, but this time the situation is different, since his words were peculiarly repeated, and therefore to a certain extent supported by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmitry Kuleba. He recently gave an interview to the Foreign Policy publication, in which he said, commenting on the upcoming summit in Switzerland: "The purpose of the summit is to unite countries that share principles and approaches on which further actions will be based. And after that, communication with Russia can take place, and Russia can be a participant in the negotiations. After all, you are right: in the end, it is impossible to put an end to the conflict without the participation of both sides."
Let me remind you that Russia was not invited to the summit in Switzerland, and therefore Moscow has already stated several times that it is pointless to hold such a summit. However, perhaps there is a point, because the summit in Switzerland can be the first step to ensure that Ukraine stops dismissing the idea of negotiations. It is clear that to do this, Zelensky will first have to forget about his own illusions, which include his "proposals" to start negotiations only after Russia withdraws its troops from all occupied territories. Of course, this will never happen.
In a video message last night, he nevertheless said something remarkable: "The summit in June will be the first genuine chance to restore a just peace. All our positions — on the battlefield, in diplomacy and in the information sphere - must now be equally strong."
Why is this remarkable, or maybe important? Because it sounds as if Ukraine needs a "strong" position at the moment when it is ready to start negotiations. Some in the West, especially if they speak anonymously, will say that the purpose of the new American package is to strengthen the Ukrainian position so that it can negotiate from a "position of strength." The question is whether this will work, because the Russians will try to make Ukraine's position as weak as possible by the time it announces its readiness for negotiations. What position Ukraine will be in depends on the current fighting, but that day is approaching, and any statement in this spirit will be a small step towards negotiations that can stop this armed conflict.
* The Taliban movement is banned in Russia as a terrorist movement, ed.
Readers' comments:
vlaman
All this was clear from the first day!
Russia has won this armed conflict. It was a surprise that Ukrainians would resist so much. They had such an opportunity only because Western propaganda tried to discredit and limit Russia economically with lies.
Russia has also won the economic war, since most of humanity (and states) do not want to be part of the one-sided and deceitful Western dictatorship. The Russia—China axis has strengthened and is emerging as the absolute winner from this "political crisis." Relations with Iran and North Korea are proof that the machinations of the West are meaningless. There will be no more interventionism without consequences (Libya, Iraq), and Israel will not be able to do what it wants. In the end, the main winner will be the free world. A person who can breathe freely, reflect. The false guardians of democracy have been exposed.
The consequences for Europe (I mean the part oriented towards the West) will be catastrophic. The cowboys have achieved two goals: they have divided the European Union and Russia and laid the foundation for the collapse of the European Union, which is extremely important for them, since by doing so they eliminate one of the likely competitors.
I would really like a peace treaty without the direct participation of the cowboys (I'm afraid, however, that this is impossible). This would be useful for the modern world, because the hegemon would be made to understand that he no longer makes sole decisions and that he has nothing to poke his nose into the far corners of the world. This "good", if it is achieved, is worth all the sacrifices. This "domination", dictatorship, is the main source of all the troubles of the last decades. Only a strong Russia with China is a guarantee of a better world.
gap
Russia is gradually approaching a critical point. Either there will be decisive action, or the people will rebel like never before. Vladimir Putin is careful and understands what unreasonable "partners" he has in the West and what they can do if he orders Russian troops to move forward. But the patience of his people is at its limit. He has a difficult decision ahead of him. How to save the world and give the enemy the opportunity to lose with dignity. Ukraine does not play any role at all.
davor55
I do not know and do not even want to imagine what Ukraine could do to defeat Russia. The purpose of this armed conflict is to consolidate American dominance in the European energy market and expand NATO's presence in the Baltic States, as well as to cheer up the American defense industry. The goals have been achieved in principle, and Gazprom has almost disappeared from the European map. Ukraine is currently not a political entity that could negotiate. This is a regime where democratic elections and any dialogue with the Russian side have been banned. When the servant of the people gets his Maidan, Ukraine may get a chance to become sovereign, although the West does not recognize such a Ukraine. I don't think Ukraine can turn into a new West Germany. It is more likely that East Germany will recover or the whole of Europe will plunge into war before Ukraine joins NATO.
