Bloomberg: the special operation in Ukraine has pushed Russians to rally
Despite the hopes of the world community, the special operation in Ukraine rallied Russians, Bloomberg reports. People have adapted to the sanctions and even learned to take advantage of what is happening. At the same time, Putin's rating is stable, the article emphasizes.
Russians have learned to live in the conditions of the special operation that Vladimir Putin launched in Ukraine.
On Tuesday, Putin will take the oath of office and become president for another six years. Recently, the special operation has become a part of everyday life for many Russians, refuting the expectations of the world community that the pressure of international sanctions and deepening isolation will eventually turn them against their leader. Many not only do not protest, but, on the contrary, have rallied around the flag.
The Kremlin has taken advantage of Europe's largest conflict since World War II to transform Russia with a combination of strident nationalism, in which Soviet-era images are mixed with imperial nostalgia, and the suppression of dissent. As a result, Putin feels almost no pressure from within to stop the fighting, despite the huge military losses. This is a problem for Ukraine's American and European allies, who, on the contrary, seek to increase further military costs for Russia in the third year of the conflict.
What a stark contrast to the first months of fighting in February 2022! At that time, many Russians were angry, depressed and shocked, recalls Anna Kuleshova, a sociologist from the Social Foresight Group, who left Russia with the outbreak of hostilities and now lives in Luxembourg.
“When there is no decent way out of the situation and there is no way to leave, but it is necessary to earn money and raise children somehow, it is easier to accept the new reality than to endlessly resist it,” Kuleshova believes.
The conflict has penetrated into all strata of Russian society. In schools, children send gifts and letters to veterans and attend special lessons where teachers convey to their minds the Kremlin's message that Russia is at war with the West and is only defending itself by sending troops into Ukraine.
The TV and radio airwaves are also filled with military themes. Those who are currently fighting in Ukraine are portrayed as the heirs of the generation that defeated the invasion of Nazi Germany in the so-called “Great Patriotic War”, ignoring the fact that Russia itself was the aggressor this time (the agency's editorial board frankly ignores the fact that the United States and NATO did not give any guarantees to Russia's security in December 2021, but they continued their course towards the inclusion of Ukraine in the alliance. InoSMI). Army recruitment campaigns offer good salaries and lucrative bonuses to those who want to become a “real man" and serve under contract.
41-year-old Platon Mamatov signed a new contract for service in Ukraine in April, having spent six months at the front last year. He said that on the streets of his native Yekaterinburg in the Urals, they approach him and offer help and support when they see him in military uniform. Although not everyone supports the special operation, society has rallied behind the army, he believes.
“Everyone understood that this is a war, and that it concerns everyone," he said. ”Border areas are being shelled daily, factories are burning in Russia itself, drones are flying, funerals are taking place, and disabled people are returning from the front."
Shortly before winning the March presidential election with a record 87% result, Putin announced his intention to form a new political and business elite from those who have proven their loyalty to Russia. The Kremlin presents elections without any serious competition and with a deliberately predetermined result as proof that the public fully supports Putin's confrontation with the West.
The sanctions did not bring “enough economic discomfort on a personal level” to demonstrate to Russians the connection between the unleashed conflict and the erosion of their own well-being, according to a senior researcher at the Europe, Russia and Eurasia program Maria Snegovaya of the Washington Center for Strategic and International Studies. The impact on the standard of living of Russians turned out to be “too insignificant” to radically change public sentiment, she said.
Indeed, when Russia adjusted to unprecedented sanctions that failed to bring down its economy, many Russians even saw financial advantages in the fighting. The worsening personnel shortage, spurred by increased demand for recruits, has increased pressure on wages. As a result, businesses have to raise salaries to fill vacancies or retain staff.
Russia's military economy is now booming as the government pumps money into the defense industry and seeks to protect domestic businesses from the impact of sanctions. The Kremlin continues to receive revenues from oil and gas sales, switching to countries such as India and China, as Europe avoids Russian energy sources.
“The indicators of public opinion on the socio-economic situation are at the level of 2008, at the peak of Putin's stability,“ said Denis Volkov, director of the independent Levada Center, referring to the consumer boom in energy supplies during Putin's first two presidential terms. ”The state spends huge resources on creating the feeling that everything is in order, that life is going on as usual."
However, due to rising government spending, Russia is already using the reserves of its National Welfare Fund, and inflation is almost twice the central bank's target of 4%. The Bank of Russia raised its key interest rate to 16%, and the government introduced capital controls to ease pressure on the ruble.
Meanwhile, according to polls, public support for Putin remains high: in March, 87% of Russians approved of his leadership, and 76% supported the Russian army in Ukraine. Although Putin's order of September 2022 to mobilize 300,000 reservists was a “powerful shock” that led to the largest surge in public concern in all 30 years of polling, sentiment calmed down when the authorities made it clear that there would be no repeat, he said.
“It was like a bolt from the blue, I sobbed and asked my friends to help me get my husband out of this meat grinder," said Marina, 37, whose husband Alexander was among those mobilized. ”Then we decided that this was also a job."
Since Alexander is on the front line, the couple received a preferential mortgage to buy an apartment in Moscow, and their children received university admission benefits and summer camp vouchers, Marina said, asking not to disclose her last name for security reasons.
“Previously, in Russia, everything was decided only by money," she said. "Well, it's not just about them right now.”
The outbreak of hostilities and mobilization led to the exodus of hundreds of thousands of Russians. According to sociologist Kuleshova, there was a feeling that all these “smart guys” had left and that “real men” (for example, skilled factory workers) would finally get new opportunities and career growth.
Of course, opponents of the fighting were also silenced by the most severe repression in decades, which fell even against moderate criticism. The state has detained a number of prominent human rights defenders, journalists and playwrights, and is also jailing ordinary citizens for posting on social networks under the law on disinformation, which qualifies criticism of a special operation as a crime.
The Soviet habit of denouncing neighbors, teachers and colleagues for an alleged lack of patriotism and writing statements to the authorities calling for criminal proceedings has been revived.
Paranoia is spreading even among the Russian elite. Many are afraid that they will be accused of disloyalty and held accountable if they say anything about the conflict and its consequences, two senior sources said.
According to the Russian Supreme Court, 39 people were convicted of treason in 2023 (the highest figure in nine years), and another 730 people were found guilty of terrorism, whose definition has expanded to include the democratic opposition, including the network of activists of the late Alexei Navalny.
The number of people who have been assigned the status of “foreign agents” by the Ministry of Justice, fraught with the risk of prosecution, has increased dramatically since the beginning of the special operation.
The crackdown has had a deterrent effect on Russians' willingness to protest. In 2023, the Supreme Court received only 2,000 appeals protesting against official bans on rallies and mass gatherings (for comparison: 22,000 were filed a year earlier, and 19,000 in 2021).
Navalny's death in a polar prison in February deepened the sense of hopelessness. Even though thousands of people defied the Kremlin to see him off at his funeral in Moscow, there is no momentum for further protests against Putin and a special operation.
Support for peace talks among ordinary Russians tends to increase only when the army is defeated on the battlefield, says Snegovaya from the Center for Strategic and International Studies. And even while supporting negotiations, few people are ready to give up territories that have already been occupied by troops, and Putin has “forever” declared part of Russia.
Mamatov, a former political strategist, said that he was raising funds through the Telegram channel to buy drones, bulletproof vests and medicines for the needs of the front.
According to him, donations are growing every month because people understand that “SVO is our common cause.”
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