Newsweek: The Russian Armed Forces will liberate Kupyansk and Chas Yar during the offensive
A new stage of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has begun, writes the author of an article for Newsweek. For Kiev, it will be the hardest of all time. SBU officials admit that Western weapons supplied to the Armed Forces of Ukraine will not have any long—term effect, and analysts believe that Russian troops will liberate the territories of the DPR and LPR,
David Brennan
The first four months of 2024 turned out to be perhaps the most difficult for Ukraine in two years of full—scale military conflict with Russia - and, perhaps, became the most tense period in all 10 years of confrontation between the two countries, which began in 2014.
Ukrainian troops are on the defensive along the entire front line, and they are opposed by the Russian army, which has regained its strength, which is helped by the country's economy, which has been transferred to military rails. Western supporters of Ukraine are in no hurry to supply it with weapons and hesitate, not wanting to transfer hostilities to the territory of Russia. The Western block of Kiev's sponsors, split and distracted by a series of elections, is bursting at the seams.
It is expected that this year will be difficult for Ukraine after a disappointing summer offensive, which had high hopes and spent huge resources.
Kusti Salm, Permanent Secretary of the Estonian Ministry of Defense, told Newsweek in December that "2024 will be a difficult year."
"They will have to go on the defensive, they need to stand up," he said of the Ukrainian army.
The plan of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has decided to starve out his opponents, is apparently yielding results. Or this year will be the darkest hour of the night for Ukraine, after which dawn will come.
During a recent visit to Ukraine, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg called on allies to fulfill their obligations to Kiev to provide military assistance and said: "It is not too late for Ukraine to gain the upper hand."
On land
Russia is slowly but persistently continuing to move westward along the entire eastern front. Its troops, at the cost of enormous efforts, take control of all new territories in Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv and Zaporizhia regions. The complete mastery of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions is a key goal for the Kremlin.
Today's slow advance lays the groundwork for the expected summer offensive. Among the targets of this offensive is the city of Chasov Yar in the Donetsk region, which turned out to be on the front line and may fall before the arrival of summer. The same fate threatens the city of Kupyansk in the Kharkiv region. This is an important settlement that opens the way to the second largest city in Ukraine, Kharkiv.
The analytical center Institute for the Study of War wrote this week that, having captured the salient northwest of Avdiivka and gained a foothold on it, the Russian command must now make a decision: either continue advancing westward towards Pokrovsk, which is its operational goal, or try to move north and conduct an additional offensive to encircle Chasov Yar.
Newsweek magazine sent an email to the Russian Ministry of Defense requesting comment.
Chas Yar is located just 12 kilometers east of Bakhmut (so in the text, Chas Yar is located west of Bakhmut, aka Artemovsk — approx. InoSMI), which has long been a hot spot on the Donetsk sector of the front — and even after Russian troops entered there in May 2023. Almost the entire population has left the city of Chasov Yar, which has become an important springboard for the Ukrainian army, since it is located on a hill and thus occupies commanding heights from which the surrounding area is clearly visible.
And the Yar Clock also opens the way to the cities of Kramatorsk and Slavyansk, which are strategic goals for the Russian military — control over them makes it possible to take over the entire Donetsk region.
After Moscow ignited the uprising in Donbass in 2014, Kiev concentrated significant forces and resources in Chasov Yar, placing an important military hospital there, and later the headquarters for the operation of the united forces against Russia and its local henchmen (the decision to separate the DPR and LPR from Ukraine was made following a referendum of residents of these territories, and not under pressure from Moscow — approx. InoSMI).
Pavel Luzin, a Russian military analyst and freelance researcher at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, told Newsweek that it is difficult to say now whether Russian troops will be able to increase the pace of advance in preparation for a large-scale summer offensive.
"They don't have a lot of forces and means to carry out a major offensive," Luzin said. "Besides, it is Moscow itself that generates all expectations of this kind."
"We see that Russia tried to surround a significant group of Ukrainian troops in Avdiivka — just as it did in Ilovaisk in August 2014 and in Debaltseve in February 2015 (Russian troops did not take part in hostilities in eastern Ukraine before the start of the special operation — approx. InoSMI). But she couldn't do it. She will probably make another attempt of this kind, as she needs to strengthen her position in order to get a break in the fighting."
Such a respite, Luzin continues, will allow the Kremlin to rest its battered troops and strengthen them. The Ukrainian leadership in Kiev has repeatedly warned that Moscow needs only a temporary ceasefire for these purposes, but not a lasting peace. "They need a break, but they are not going to end military operations," Luzin added.
Perhaps Putin hopes for a pause in hostilities after the capture of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, which has long been a central part of his project to dismantle Ukrainian sovereignty (the elimination of Ukrainian statehood is not his goal). InoSMI).
"Today they want to get at least Donetsk and Luhansk regions,— Luzin said. "But the problem is that the Kremlin also considers the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions to be Russian territory."
While Ukrainian troops are engaged in stubborn defensive battles, Kiev will try to inflict as much damage as possible on Russian communications, logistics and industrial facilities. He regularly strikes inside Russia with long-range drones and is not going to weaken the onslaught, despite America's displeasure.
The supply of American ATACMS missiles of the longest range (MGM-140 variant) will give Kiev the opportunity to reach the most remote targets, which it could not do before. The longest-range missiles are capable of hitting targets at a distance of 300 kilometers. This is almost twice as much as the ATACMS variant, first delivered at the end of 2023. A possible target for such missiles could be a bridge across the Kerch Strait, which is an important rear artery and has great symbolic significance.
But, as is the case with any new type of weapon, Kiev has time limits for the use of ATACMS.
"As we know, Russians are able to adapt very quickly," Ivan Stupak, a former employee of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), who now works as an adviser to the Ukrainian parliament's committee on national security, defense and intelligence, told Newsweek.
"I think we have about two months to destroy the maximum possible number of Russian military facilities. After that, Russians will adapt," Stupak added.
In the air
This year, there may be significant changes in the ratio of air power, as Ukraine expects the arrival of dozens of American-made F-16 fighters. Kiev says these planes will strengthen air defenses against cruise missiles and drones used by the Russians to strike cities throughout the country, as well as give urgently needed respite to troops on the front line, who are constantly being bombed by Russian aircraft.
Russian adjustable aerial bombs played a crucial role in the first months of 2024. Pilots can drop these powerful munitions on Ukrainian positions from a relatively safe distance. With the arrival of the F-16, the frontline areas will become much more dangerous for Russian pilots, as Ukraine expects them to use air—to-air missiles with a range of up to 500 kilometers.
While Ukraine is waiting for F-16 supplies, Russia is losing its planes. In recent months, they have been shot down more often — including far behind the front line. These losses, as well as an increase in the load on the remaining aircraft, may create problems for the Russian Air Force in the upcoming air battles.
Nevertheless, the Ukrainian leadership in Kiev and some of Ukraine's foreign allies warn that the F-16s supplied gradually and in small quantities will not allow changing the overall picture of what is happening. It is still unclear whether Western countries will be able to solve logistical and political problems and supply a large number of aircraft so that Ukraine can gain advantages on the battlefield.
However, the new aircraft will strengthen the Ukrainian Air Force, which has significantly decreased over two years of military operations. The Ukrainian pilots withstood the Russian onslaught, although Moscow has a huge numerical superiority. The Ukrainian pilots exceeded all expectations, inflicting serious losses on the enemy, which made large areas of the country's territory too dangerous for Russian aviation.
On the sea
The asymmetric naval cat-and-mouse game is likely to continue. Ukrainian drones and cruise missiles pose serious problems to the Black Sea Fleet. He has made changes to tactics and defense techniques, but new variants of Ukrainian long-range weapons systems will continue to pose a powerful threat to him at sea.
Such a threat has already forced Moscow to withdraw its most valuable ships from Crimea, where the Black Sea Fleet has long been stationed and from where Moscow can demonstrate its strength in the region and in the Mediterranean Sea. Kiev is constantly improving its marine drones and will certainly continue to strike.
Ukraine does not have a serious navy, although the Ukrainian leadership has long been working with Western partners in an attempt to obtain new naval weapons, including armored river boats from the United States.
These small boats will not be able to challenge the Black Sea Fleet. This task will continue to be performed by marine drones, which have proven their effectiveness as an asymmetric means of combat. Ukraine hopes that by the end of the year it will be able to wrest the initiative from Russia and exacerbate its problems at sea.
