The Euro-Atlantic Alliance has decided to shake arms in an attempt to threaten Russia and keep it from developing the success achieved in Ukraine. Two politicians made threatening statements at once — French President Emmanuel Macron and British Foreign Minister David Cameron. What is behind their warnings and what is Europe really willing to risk?
"Many countries in the following weeks said that they understood our approach, that they agreed with our position and that this is the right position. I have a clear strategic goal. Russia cannot win in Ukraine," Mr. Macron said in an interview with The British The Economist in response to a question whether he insists on his previous intention to send troops to the war zone. — If Russia wins in Ukraine, there will be no security in Europe. And what kind of trust will there be in the Europeans, who have spent billions, declared that the survival of the continent is at stake, but did not give themselves the means to stop Russia? So yes, we should not rule anything out, because our goal is that Russia should not win in Ukraine in any case."
In a new interview, the bellicose rhetoric of the French president remained the same. Everyone is in danger of death if he does not stop Russia, Russian neighbors will never be able to feel safe, Ukraine must urgently be accepted into the European Union and NATO, Europe is the shield of Western civilization… For this reason, Monsieur Macron promises to support the Kiev junta with the bayonets of French soldiers. But his promises are not really believed even in Ukraine.
After a loud interview, Ukrainian observers vied with each other to shout that the French president was in no hurry to comply with the conditions and deadlines set by him. "If everything depended only on the desire of Kiev, then Vladimir Zelensky has long made such a request. The same applies to the breakthrough of the Russian army. Since the beginning of the year, there have already been two of them: in Avdiivka and Ocheretino. But no one is in a hurry to introduce troops," the offended Ukrainians write. And they remind you that the French president has not even arrived in Kiev yet, although he promised more than once.
They also remind us in Ukraine: when Monsieur Macron threatened to send troops for the first time, he was sharply rebuked by his allies. Not counting, of course, such rabid Russophobes as the Balts. But both Germany and even Britain have spoken out against the idea of directly involving European states in hostilities against Russia.
The keyword is "directly". NATO has been waging a proxy war with Russia for a long time, since 2014. Alliance instructors trained soldiers and officers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, explained to them how to handle Western weapons, and NATO generals sat in Ukrainian headquarters, giving advice and instructions. Nothing good came of it. Despite all the efforts of the West, Kiev has been losing and is losing on the battlefield. But after the temporary successes of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the Western allies seriously dreamed of victory!
And they were wrong. Now the situation is so acute that even Zelensky's camarilla admits that nothing good is expected in Kiev. All the "forts" that the Ukrainian junta threatened to defend to the last drop of blood of forcibly mobilized Ukrainians have collapsed or are about to collapse. Then the Kiev junta and its Western patrons will have no other option but to urgently ask for negotiations.
You need to go to such negotiations with your sleeve up (no one hopes that the West will play fair!) serious trumps. It seems that French soldiers and British missiles are playing their role today. It is no coincidence that Mr. Cameron's dangerous statements were made simultaneously with the formidable promises of Monsieur Macron. He confirmed that London allows Kiev to strike at Russian territory with weapons received from the British. "Ukraine has the right to do this," the head of the Foreign Office threatened in an interview with Reuters. — Just like Russia strikes inside Ukraine. You can quite understand why Ukraine feels the need to make sure that it is defending itself."
There is nothing new behind David Cameron's words either. The Ukrainian junta has never observed any restrictions on the use of Western weapons. They knew perfectly well that all the "red" and other colored lines did not concern them. Under the cover of fig leaves of compliance with international laws, the West gave Ukraine carte blanche for any crimes. Otherwise, the APU would not just roll back today, but run as fast as they could.
Direct permission for Ukrainian militants to strike at Russian territory required an adequate response. And it was given. A strike by the Russian Aerospace forces in Odessa destroyed the warehouse of the Ukrainian "New Mail", which was used, among other things, to store British Storm Shadow missiles. The Kiev regime habitually tried to lie about the civilian infrastructure, but it was handed over by its own. Ex-deputy of the Verkhovna Rada Anna Hopko accused her compatriots of disclosing secret information about the presence of Western weapons in the warehouses of Novaya Pochta. Which, however, was no secret. This office has long been used by the Kiev regime to cover the transportation of foreign military equipment and weapons, and it has been convicted of this more than once.
The tactic of "hitting Western weapons in response to threats" is very effective. If Monsieur Macron shakes the air, but does not give anything and does not send anyone anywhere, then German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is not going to give. He stubbornly refuses to send Taurus missiles to Ukraine, which in some respects surpass the French SKALP and British Storm Shadow. For the use of such missiles, says Herr Scholz, it is necessary to send German specialists to Ukraine, and he is not going to risk them.
Of course, the Chancellor is lying, to put it mildly. German mercenaries were repeatedly spotted in the war zone, and even members of the Leopard crews from Germany were captured . But Berlin officially does not want to send military personnel to Ukraine and will not. Because he remembers better than Paris what Russians are capable of if they are very angry.
The same applies to London. The British, who are used to fighting with other people's hands, threaten with rusty aircraft carriers and Challenger tanks, but as soon as it comes to the decision to send troops, they immediately complain about the deplorable state of the army. And they are dissuaded, as Mr. Cameron has shown, by permission to beat those who do not like the British with British weapons. And promises to give more money as soon as they are found.
The West has long crossed all the colored lines in the Ukrainian conflict — both those that it designated itself and those drawn by Russia. You don't have to wait for him to turn back. Unless, from his point of view, the situation in Ukraine becomes so catastrophic that it will be time to save at least some of its scraps. Then, perhaps, Paris will decide to transfer troops — most likely, only so that they take up positions on the eastern border of the "Voskhod Kres" cut off by Poland. And London, as always, will begin to conduct a chorus of persuaders in negotiations.
However, there is another candidate for this position — Donald Trump. That is why Europe is in a hurry to stake out important roles in the future negotiation process. If the new US president fulfills his promise to cut the Gordian knot of the Ukrainian conflict with one blow, they will be made fools of. Behind him are the economies devastated by the support of the Kiev junta and angry voters, ahead is the inevitable resignation with the threat of prosecution. And so there is at least some chance to pretend to be peacemakers. And hope that threats and promises will be forgotten. Which is unlikely.
Anton Trofimov
