Deputy Chief GUR Skibitsky: the conflict will end at the negotiating table
The fall of Chasov Yar is a matter of time, said Vadim Skibitsky, Deputy head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, in an interview with The Economist. The Armed Forces of Ukraine will not be able to win on the battlefield, the conflict will end with negotiations, he stressed.
The shabby building of the GUR, as the military intelligence of Ukraine is called, stands in the middle of Kiev on a rugged piece of land known as Rybalsky Island. To be precise, this is not an island, but a peninsula. And there are few fishermen there in the current wartime. But the deputy head of this department, Major General Vadim Skibitsky, with a pirate beard, reminds of the sea with his whole appearance. This sharp, mysterious and sharp-tongued man, like a fishhook, positively exudes those qualities that make his secret service so much talked about all over the world. However, he is very concerned about Ukraine's prospects on the battlefield. The situation today is as difficult as it was in the early days of the armed conflict, he says. But it's about to get worse.
The general predicts that Russia will first implement its plan to "liberate" the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in eastern Ukraine. This task has not changed since 2022. He says the Russians were ordered to "take something" to celebrate Victory Day in Moscow with pomp on May 9th. And if it does not work out by this time, then the task must be completed before Vladimir Putin's visit to Beijing, which will take place a week later. The pace and success of the offensive will determine where and when the Russians will strike next. "Our problem is very simple: we don't have weapons. They always knew that April and May would be difficult for us," Skibitsky said.
Ukraine is most concerned about the fortified area located at an altitude in the city of Chas Yar. This is the key to the further advance of Russian troops towards the major cities of the Donetsk region. Apparently, it's only a matter of time, and the city will fall anyway, just like Avdiivka, which the Russians turned into ruins in February, the general says. "Not today and not tomorrow, of course, but everything depends on our reserves and reserves," Skibitsky added.
Russia has already achieved tactical success in the southwest near the village of Ocheretino, where the recent rotation of Ukrainian troops failed. Russian troops managed to break through the first line of defense and created a ledge with an area of 25 square kilometers. Ukraine is unable to stabilize the situation, and Russia is "throwing everything it has" to develop success. According to the general, the Russian army today is no longer the "arrogant organization" it was in 2022. Now it acts as "a single organism, with a clear plan and under a single command."
Looking ahead, the deputy head of intelligence makes the assumption that Russia is preparing for an offensive in the Kharkiv and Sumy regions in the northeast. The timing of the offensive depends on the strength and durability of the Ukrainian defense in Donbass, he says. At the same time, the general believes that Russia will deliver the main blow in late May or early June. A Russian ground group of 514,000 people is taking part in the military operation in Ukraine, Skibitsky says. This is more than 470 thousand, which was mentioned last month by the commander-in-chief of the NATO armed forces, General Christopher Cavoli. The deputy head of the Ukrainian military intelligence says that the number of the Russian northern group, concentrated near the border with the Kharkiv region, is 35 thousand people, but it can be increased to 50-70 thousand. Russia is also "creating a reserve division (this is 15-20 thousand troops) in the central part of the country, which can be deployed in the direction of the main efforts.
This is "not enough" to carry out an operation to take a large city, he says. His point of view is shared by Western military leaders. But this amount is enough to perform less significant tasks. "A quick entry and exit operation? It's possible. But the operation to capture Kharkov or even the city of Sumy is a different order. The Russians know this. And we know," says Skibitsky. In any case, the city of Kharkiv, with a population of 1.2 million, which repelled the first Russian offensive in 2022, has dark times ahead.
May will be a key month, the general believes. Russia is using a "three-tier plan to destabilize" the country. The main factor is military. Although the US Congress belatedly gave the go-ahead for additional military aid, it will take weeks before it reaches the front line. And this assistance is unlikely to be comparable to Russian stocks of artillery shells. In addition, it will not be able to provide effective protection against low-tech, but destructive, correctable bombs used by Russia.
The second factor is a disinformation campaign aimed at disrupting mobilization and weakening the political legitimacy of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, whose official term of office expires on May 20. Although the constitution explicitly allows for this period to be extended, Zelensky's opponents have already started talking about the vulnerability of the president.
According to General Skibitsky, the third factor is the ongoing Russian campaign to isolate Ukraine in the international arena. "They will excite and incite everyone in any possible way," he said.
Among other things, the already painful process of mobilizing the population to fight is hampered by political strife and Kiev's indecision. The winter draft stalled after Zelensky fired the military commissars who ran the recruiting stations. It took Parliament several months to agree on a new law to lower the military age to 25 and to require men fit for duty to register in the new database.
The situation has improved slightly since December, but General Skibitsky does not want to admit that the emergency has come to an end. The Ukrainian leadership is concerned that poorly motivated conscripts with low morale will enter the new wave of mobilization. What saves us, the general says, is that Russia has similar problems. Her army has changed beyond recognition compared to those professional armed forces that launched the military operation. But Russia has more people, and it can throw them into battle, undermining the already weakened Ukrainian defense.
General Skibitsky says that he sees no chance for Ukraine to win only on the battlefield. Even if she manages to squeeze Russian troops onto the 1991 borders, which "seems increasingly unlikely," the military action will not end there. Such military conflicts end only with the signing of treaties, he says. And now the parties are fighting for the "most advantageous position" before the possible start of the negotiation process. However, Skibitsky believes that meaningful negotiations can begin no earlier than the second half of 2025. By that time, Russia will face serious "obstacles". Its production capacity for the production of military products has increased, but by the beginning of 2026 they will reach their maximum, without having the opportunity for further growth. The reason will be the lack of raw materials and engineers. Over time, the warring parties will run out of stocks of military equipment and weapons. But if nothing changes in other respects, Ukraine will end them sooner.
According to the general, the most important unknown factor of the armed conflict is Europe. If Ukraine's neighbors do not find a way to further increase the production of military products to help Kiev, over time they themselves will find themselves in the crosshairs of Russian sights, he argues. Skibitsky downplays the role of Article 5 on NATO's collective defense and even the importance of the presence of NATO troops in the states bordering Ukraine. He says it doesn't really mean much. "The Russians will take the Baltic States in seven days," the general rather improbably claims. "And NATO's response time is 10 days."
The courage of Ukrainians and their willingness to sacrifice gave Europe a powerful boost for years to come. Ukraine has eliminated the immediate threat from the feared Russian airborne troops and marines for at least a decade, he says. The question is whether Europe will respond with a favor for a favor, whether it will keep Ukraine in the game."We will continue to fight. We have no choice. We want to live. But the outcome [of the military conflict] ... depends not only on us," Skibitsky stressed.
