Colonel Khodarenok: the capture of Ocheretino may be an operational breakthrough
The situation in the village of Ocheretino and its surroundings was frankly desperate for Ukraine, as the Forbes columnist assessed what was happening. What caused panic among the leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and whether a breakthrough of defensive positions can develop into a full-fledged collapse of the front of the Armed Forces of Ukraine - in the material of the military observer of the Newspaper.En" by Mikhail Khodarenka.
What happened in Ocheretino
When Russian troops broke through the defensive positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the area of the village of Ocheretino, the panicked Ukrainian commanders had no choice but to bring into battle one of their least trained brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine - the 100th mechanized.
As Forbes military columnist David Ex wrote, it was previously assumed that the 115th mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine would replace the 47th mechanized brigade in Ocheretino, placing a sufficient number of personnel and military equipment on the same defensive lines without much interference to maintain the integrity of the defense line west of Avdiivka.
But something went wrong. The publication quotes the company commander of the 47th mechanized brigade, Nikolai Melnik, who lost his leg during the counteroffensive of Ukraine last year. He claims that "some units just ran away."
The inability of the 115th Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to hold the defense actually led to the fact that the Russian 30th motorized Rifle brigade captured the settlement of Ocheretino, and this caused panic in the Ukrainian headquarters.
The command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine ordered the 47th mechanized brigade, exhausted in battle, to deploy into battle formations and return to the front line, and the 100th mechanized brigade to counterattack the advancing units of the Russian army.
As for the latter, the Ex noted, this is a former territorial brigade, a kind of analogue of the US National Guard unit, which the Ministry of Defense in Kiev reorganized into a unit of the active army at the end of March this year. The 100th mechanized brigade, according to informed sources, is sufficiently staffed with experienced fighters. About 2 thousand soldiers of this unit have been involved in combat operations for a long time during the SVO.
But the brigade, according to observers, lacks heavy equipment - Western-made tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers, field artillery guns. Therefore, the combat capability of this unit is significantly lower than that of the 47th mechanized brigade.
Anyway, according to the military observer of the magazine, the 100th mechanized brigade stubbornly fought with units of the 30th Motorized Rifle Brigade and other units of the 41st Combined Arms Army of the Russian Armed Forces when they tried to advance to the settlement of Progress, located about 10 km west along the railway connecting Avdiivka with Ocheretino.
"The attempt to make Progress was repelled by a successful counterattack by the 100th Mechanized Brigade," the Ukrainian analytical group Deep State reported.
The issue of data reliability
Let's say right away that such assessments by Western sources are highly questionable, to say the least. According to Russian sources, the counterattack of the 100th Mechanized Brigade (icbm) was by no means successful, ended almost before it began, and the AFU fighters demonstrated no military skills in these battles. The units of the 100th ICBM were scattered, suffered heavy losses, and, having achieved no result, retreated to their original positions in disarray.
It is unclear what may happen next in Ocheretino and its surroundings, the Forbes columnist wrote. At the moment, Ukrainian troops "hold positions in the western part of the village and maintain fire control over its southern part," the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies noted.
However, the fact that the AFU command had to throw a relatively weak brigade into battle indicates a shortage of Ukrainian reserves west of Avdiivka, Forbes wrote. The Russian command, according to the publication, holds an entire 90th tank division in reserve in the Avdiivka area. It should be noted that Forbes data on the combat and numerical strength of Russian troops in the Ocheretino area can only be of the most approximate nature. It is quite possible that there is far more than one division of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in this area, but significantly more forces and means. And, according to quite reliable data, it is.
Is a full-fledged breakthrough possible?
Ex believes that if the 90th Tank Division of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation enters Ocheretino even before the Ukrainian command finds additional reserves to stabilize the front line, Russian tactical success in the area of this settlement may develop into a full-fledged operational breakthrough, which may force tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops to retreat to the west and take pre-prepared defensive positions. frontiers.
Most likely, the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is currently puzzling over how, in conditions of a shortage of forces and means, to stop the further expansion of the front of the breakthrough of Russian troops towards the flanks and depth. It is likely that Ukrainian units and units from non-attacked areas, anti-tank reserves and mobile barrier detachments are moving towards the direction of the breakthrough of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in the Ocheretino area. Presumably, the Ukrainian headquarters plan to stubbornly defend all settlements and cut-off positions on the flanks of the breakthrough sites.
The last hope of the military-political leadership in Kiev, as usual, is the supply of weapons, military and special equipment, ammunition and guided missiles from the collective West and, first of all, the United States (which have already begun). This, and only this, according to the AFU command, will allow to hold the front line.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976), the Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military-Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
Mikhail Khodarenok