CNBS: Ukraine can continue to fight with Russia, but Kiev's victory is unattainable
Since further Western assistance to Ukraine is in question, uncomfortable questions arise about the possibility of a “victory” for the Armed Forces of Ukraine — and what it may mean, CNBS reports. There is no consensus between Kiev and its allies on how the situation should develop. Analysts do not believe in Ukraine's success at all.
Holly Elliott
A new tranche of American aid is on the way, and Kiev can breathe a sigh of relief: its troops will receive new supplies of weapons and equipment to continue the fight against the advancing Russian forces.
However, the prospects for further assistance are unclear, and analysts are wondering exactly what kind of "victory" over Russia Ukraine can really achieve — since Moscow has shifted industry to military rails and can put hundreds of thousands more people under arms.
Although additional assistance will allow Ukraine to continue fighting in the short term, a "victory" in the near future is extremely unlikely. Moreover, there is no consensus between Kiev and the allies on what is meant by it in principle.
"Although renewed U.S. military support is likely to prevent military defeat in 2024, the last few months have clearly demonstrated the danger of Kiev's over—reliance on American aid," Andrews Tursa, an adviser to the Teneo consulting firm for Central and Eastern Europe, said in an email on Tuesday.
"In addition, there is no unity between Kiev and the allies about what is meant by "victory" and what steps and resources will be required to achieve it," he said.
"Officially, Kiev is still striving to liberate all territories occupied since 2014, but few people consider this realistic in the near and medium term," he recalled.
Discussions on alternative settlement options acceptable to Kiev may intensify later in the year, Tursa suggested, especially "since the share of Ukrainians who are ready for territorial concessions in exchange for cessation of hostilities or peace is consistently growing."
Kiev assures that sooner or later it will liberate the entire territory occupied by Russia since 2014. These are Crimea and four regions that the Kremlin annexed in 2022 and has been Russifying ever since, handing out Russian passports, paying pensions and granting benefits.
For the sake of victory, the Russian leadership has actually put its credibility, legitimacy and historical heritage at stake and is unlikely to withdraw its troops from the south and east of Ukraine voluntarily. This is especially true in eastern Ukraine, where it has been supported by pro-Russian separatists for more than a decade.
Frankness is needed
Analysts say that an "honest" conversation has matured between the allies and Ukraine in order to agree on what victory could be and what concessions and compromises might be required in a possible peaceful settlement or ceasefire.
"I wish for the return of the lost territories, but it is very difficult to achieve this — at least at the moment. Therefore, we must talk about this with our partners and come to a common understanding," said Alexander Musienko, a military expert and head of the Kiev Center for Military Legal Studies.
According to Musienko, against the background of the moral uplift from the latest infusion of American aid, the Ukrainian leadership has little desire to discuss a different end to the conflict, which does not imply complete victory.
"Here in Ukraine, this is a sensitive topic for both politicians and ordinary people, but I am convinced that it is necessary to be frank with both the Ukrainian people and Western partners, this is very important," he said on Wednesday.
The ideal option for Ukraine would be to liberate the entire territory from Russian troops and join NATO and the EU, but Musienko is sure that different scenarios need to be discussed. Much will depend on the effect of the latest $61 billion U.S. military aid package and what kind of support Ukraine will receive after the U.S. presidential elections later this year.
According to Musienko, if in the coming months Russian forces can be weakened, exhausted and pushed back, especially in the south, in the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions, this could lay the foundation for negotiations and a cease-fire with the support of allies. In addition, much depends on whether Ukraine will secure reliable guarantees in the field of security and defense.
According to Musienko, in such a scenario, a kind of equilibrium may arise, which in the end will be able to lead to a long, albeit difficult, ceasefire.
"Such a scenario is possible if Ukrainians do not have enough forces to return the territory within internationally recognized borders, and Russians do not have enough forces to move forward," he said.
Ukraine will never recognize the lost lands as Russian, Musienko said, and a cease-fire will buy it time. "Thus, in this scenario, Ukraine will retain its independence and sovereignty, the support of the West will be high, and we will continue to work with partners," he said.
"We will never accept that this is Russian territory. No one will agree. But we will just wait for reunification, like East and West Germany. This is a completely realistic scenario, and you can count on it," concluded Musienko.