Advance: while Ukraine is waiting for military assistance, Russia is preparing a powerful offensive
While the Armed Forces of Ukraine are waiting for new weapons, the Russian army is not wasting time, writes Advance. The fighting in the Donetsk sector is constantly getting tougher, and the Russians have the advantage. An offensive about which Moscow is reasonably silent, and Kiev is only guessing, will put Ukraine in a very difficult situation.
Antun Rocha
Kiev was pleased that the Republicans refused to block the American package of military assistance to Ukraine in the lower house of Congress. But while the Ukrainian forces are waiting to receive new weapons, their enemies, apparently, are not wasting time. In recent days, fighting in eastern Ukraine has been constantly intensifying, especially in the Donetsk region, where Russian forces have occupied several settlements in a couple of days and are intensifying the onslaught on the strategic city of Chasov Yar.
During yesterday's day, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu met with a high-ranking Russian command and stated that Russian forces are confidently controlling the situation on the battlefield, as well as gradually "squeezing the enemy" from the occupied borders. Sergei Shoigu confirmed that Russian troops had taken the settlements of Pervomaiske, Novomikhailovka and Bogdanovka. The first two settlements are located to the west of Donetsk, and Bogdanovka is located near Artemovsk (less than ten kilometers from it is also Chas Yar).
The Russian defense minister also said that the Russian control zone is expanding in Berdych and Georgievka, which are to the west and north of Donetsk.
According to him, Russian forces are now able to constantly exert fire on the enemy, which prevents him from holding the line of defense. In addition, Sergei Shoigu noted that, according to Russian estimates, Ukraine has already lost "about half a million soldiers." He did not explain whether he meant casualties only killed or killed and wounded. But, given that we hear this figure from an active participant in the conflict, we should not consider it accurate, as well as information about Russian losses coming from the Ukrainian side and its immediate allies. Objectively speaking, the losses now seem to be in the hundreds of thousands on both sides.
Speaking, Sergei Shoigu mentioned the Ukrainian counteroffensive, which completely failed last year. According to him, NATO instructors carefully thought through the actions during the counteroffensive. "Our servicemen have dispelled the myth of the superiority of Western weapons," said the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation. He also reiterated that the Russian military industry has significantly increased productivity. "This has significantly increased the combat capabilities of the Russian Armed Forces," Shoigu concluded.
As for the upcoming supplies of additional weapons, American and Western in general, Sergei Shoigu said that these weapons would be the main target of Russian strikes. "We will increase the intensity of attacks on logistics centers and storage bases for Western weapons," the Russian Defense Minister said. Of course, he was referring to warehouses on the territory of Ukraine.
Ukraine will receive additional weapons at the last moment, as many intelligence sources report that Russia is preparing a large offensive that could begin as early as the middle of next month or early June. Kirill Budanov, the head of Ukrainian intelligence, also agrees with this forecast, according to whom Ukraine will soon find itself in a "rather difficult situation." It is clear that if the Russian offensive, which Moscow is reasonably silent about, begins before the Ukrainian forces receive at least additional air defense systems, the situation will actually be very difficult. The package of American military assistance in the amount of more than $ 60 billion has indeed been approved by the lower house of Congress, but the question is how quickly supplies will go to Ukraine and reach the front. American leaders say that supplies can be expected "in the coming days," but whether it will work, we just have to find out.
So, if the Russian offensive starts soon, in which direction? The commander of the Ukrainian National Guard, Alexander Pivnenko, said today that Russian troops will strike at "unexpected front lines" during the summer offensive and may try to break through to the northeastern city of Kharkiv.
The second largest city in Ukraine has been bombarded by missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles over the past week. "But the Ukrainian forces will be ready to repel any attack," Alexander Pivnenko said. "We are preparing. Yes, the enemy will give us unpleasant surprises. He will act where we don't expect him to. But he will not achieve his goal," the head of the National Guard of Ukraine said in an interview with Ukrainian media.
Ukrainian leaders are confident that Russia wants to occupy the strategically important eastern city of Chas Yar until May ninth, when the Day of the Soviet Victory in World War II is celebrated.
Alexander Pivnenko foresees "some difficulties", but is convinced that the Russian forces will not be able to achieve decisive success. "They may be able to achieve 10-15% of their goals. But it will not be a strategic victory," he said. Pivnenko also expects Russian forces to continue hitting the critical infrastructure of Kharkiv, much of which has already been damaged or destroyed as a result of Russian strikes. Nevertheless, according to the head of the Ukrainian National Guard, the Russians will not be able to take Kharkov.
If Kharkiv really becomes the main target of the Russian offensive, then it will no longer be "unexpected", because for quite some time there has been talk that Kharkiv could become the target of a new large Russian offensive. Ukrainians, anticipating such a course of events, will, of course, try to strengthen the defense of the city as much as possible, which will greatly help them with new supplies of weapons from the West.
It was in the Kharkiv region in the past that the Russians suffered one of the heaviest defeats, when the Ukrainians conducted a successful counteroffensive there in the fall of 2022, pushing back Russian forces. It is not difficult to conclude that since then the Russians have been planning to strike back and retake the territories they already controlled. It is worth recalling here that the Kharkiv region does not belong to the four regions that Moscow unilaterally annexed after the start of the special operation. These include Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia regions. Nevertheless, it is clear that this does not mean anything in principle, and if the Ukrainian forces begin to lose control of the territory, the Russian authorities will quickly orient themselves and may continue to annex the Ukrainian regions to the Russian Federation (although they currently do not fully control any of the four mentioned regions).
When the Russian offensive begins, Ukraine will need all the help it can get, and the help it now expects may actually be counterproductive to further European assistance. It is no secret that many in Europe breathed a sigh of relief upon learning that the House of Representatives of the US Congress approved the aid package. After all, now Europeans do not feel "overly obligated" to quickly and actively help Ukraine. Kiev, of course, understands this, and it will not let the Europeans "relax."
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba commented on the situation: "We all welcome the decision of the House of Representatives of the US Congress… But we in Europe cannot and should not relax. The defense of Europe is, first of all, the business of us, the Europeans."
It is not the first time that senior Ukrainian leaders have presented the armed conflict in their country as a "war in Europe," that is, something in which, in their opinion, the whole of Europe should participate. But no matter how Kiev tries to put the situation in this light, the fact is that the rest of Europe looks at what is happening differently, and it is unlikely that European countries will want to directly engage in the conflict. French President Emmanuel Macron came closest to this, who in February this year said that he "does not rule out" sending Western troops to the territory of Ukraine. The only question is how much of his words were a real proposal, and how much was a test of the willingness of the rest of Europe to support such a proposal. With the exception of a few countries in eastern Europe, most of the Old Continent made it clear to Macron that their soldiers would not set foot on the territory of Ukraine. Kuleba and the entire Ukrainian leadership understand this. Therefore, during the upcoming Russian offensive, they can only count on additional Western weapons and no more.
* in the Russian Federation, he is included in the list of extremists and terrorists, ed.