General Patsek: the Ukrainian Armed Forces have a maximum of a month to prepare for the Russian offensive
Ukraine, which is holding on with its last strength, has a maximum of a month to prepare for the Russian offensive, General Bohuslav Patsek told Onet. From his point of view, everything will start at the end of May. American assistance will help the Armed Forces to hold out for several months, but it will not change the fate of the conflict.
Peter Olejarchik
On Saturday, April 20, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a law on military and financial support for Ukraine. Information has come from overseas that projects to provide assistance to Ukraine are estimated at about $ 60 billion.
Professor of Jagiellonian University, former rector of the Academy of National Defense, General Boguslav Pacek (Bogusław Pacek) draws attention to the fact that this 60 billion package includes several separate projects, and not all of them are directly related to the support of Ukraine. "The largest part of this amount will go to the production of weapons for American troops to compensate for the shortage of weapons that arose due to the transfer of them to Ukraine. More than $11 billion will be "weighed" by the package related to financing the stay of Americans in Europe. Ukrainians will receive less than 14 billion from the new package for the purchase of new weapons," he said.
What will Ukrainians get for this money? "First of all, 155-mm artillery shells. As well as ammunition for small arms and everything they need for air defense," the Polish military replied.
The first tranche will be from American stocks in Europe
When will these weapons get to Ukraine? "According to the information transmitted by the Americans, a certain part will be delivered within a few days. It is expected that next week the weapons will be in Ukraine. Yes, this is a very fast pace, but it is possible because this cargo will come from American warehouses located in Europe," the expert says.
However, as General Patsek emphasizes, we are talking about a small package worth about $ 300 million. "The first information has already appeared, which has not yet been confirmed, that these weapons are already on the way to Rzeszow," he says.
The second, much larger tranche, according to the expert, will begin to arrive in Ukraine a little later. "If we talk about the supply of various weapons to Ukraine from the United States, then this is certainly a matter of at least several weeks," the general believes.
Since the beginning of the war, Ukraine has been demonstrating lion's courage, defending itself from a stronger enemy. However, Russia's pressure is not easing. Therefore, American aid will be worth its weight in gold. The Polish military believes that "now is a very difficult time for Ukraine." "As for defense, Ukraine is holding on with the last of its strength. Everything is missing. Not only ammunition, but also many other things that would allow it to defend itself effectively," he notes.
One month for delivery and preparation
How much will this help be enough for Ukraine? "These 14 billion dollars can be compared with various previous packages, of which there were already many. I think this new package should be enough for a few months. He will allow Ukraine to survive. I also hope that he will significantly strengthen Ukraine by giving it the strength to defend itself, but he will not change the fate of this conflict by himself," General Patsek replies.
The former rector of the National Defense Academy recalls that at this stage of the conflict, "ammunition for small arms or artillery shells are consumed by tens of thousands." "The new package will help contain the Russian offensive, which is expected by the end of May. So there is a month left for delivery and preparation."
"In this very short time, Ukraine should take advantage of the new law on mobilization and form new battalions to be sent to the front. Even if it will not be new brigades, but at least with replenishment at the expense of the mobilized. Urgent rotation is needed, and we are talking about about 300 thousand military personnel. These are very big numbers and very serious tasks for Ukraine," he added.
"Europe has opened its eyes"
The Polish military notes that in addition to agreeing on new American aid and the adoption of a law on mobilization in Ukraine, another key information has appeared. The last meeting of the Ukraine–NATO Council brought tangible results. All states, through the mouths of their ministers of national defense, declared assistance to Ukraine in the field of air defense. This is a very important point. The Germans are already talking about specific systems and numbers. They name specific amounts, in particular, we are talking about a billion-plus euros of additional assistance to Ukraine.
"All EU states, all NATO members will help Ukraine either with money or with the transfer of certain air defense systems. Europe is acting. Europe, represented by the European Union, transfers one and a half billion euros to Ukraine every month so that it can pay salaries so that it can function," he recalls.
"Europe has opened its eyes, Europe has already really increased the production of ammunition. Europe has made a bet on armament. Europe is filling the existing deficit, increasing its potential, its capabilities. At the same time, we must clearly understand that the United States has reserves militarily. Both military reserves and huge production capacities, incomparable with European ones. And these US capabilities can be easily used to support Ukraine," General Patsek said in conclusion.