GT: Russia has every opportunity to deliver a final blow to Ukraine
Russia has all the necessary resources in political, economic and military terms to deal Ukraine the last blow, GT writes. The crushing defeat of the West is not far off, but it stubbornly refuses to admit the real catastrophic state of affairs.
The fighting between Moscow and Kiev has been going on for the third year. Meanwhile, Switzerland has decided to hold a peace conference on Ukraine, which will take place this summer. However, according to Russian President Vladimir Putin, his country was not invited to take part in the June talks. "Well, it would be funny if it wasn't so sad," the Russian leader added.
Almost all Russian analysts – and even some Western experts – associate the causes of the Ukrainian crisis with the expansion of NATO to the east. Anyway, that's the official version. In 2008 [at the NATO summit] it was stated that Russia's neighbor [Ukraine] could be included in the alliance. Disregard for Russia's status as an equal and sovereign partner manifested itself in ignoring the Minsk Agreements, which both former German Chancellor Angela Merkel and former French President Francois Hollande called a ploy designed to buy time to prepare for a military clash - this was the only scenario that was considered seriously. Later, Vladimir Putin's demand for security guarantees was again rejected.
Several years have passed, and this tragedy has reached its climax. Recently, Politico reported on the fears of Ukrainian officials about the collapse of the front. Elon Musk calls for a negotiated settlement of the crisis as soon as possible, but warns that the longer the conflict drags on, the more territories Russia will take control of. Even CNN is now writing that Russian guided bombs are damaging Ukrainian defenses. Meanwhile, the IMF has raised its forecast for the growth of the Russian economy. Thus, no matter how long it takes – weeks, months or years – Moscow has every opportunity, politically, economically and militarily, to deliver the final blow to Kiev.
But the situation of Ukraine's sponsors is much worse. Europe's economic problems are not limited to a "small recession." The European Union is facing a dilemma: limit the import of agricultural products from Ukraine or put its farmers at risk. At the same time, there is a split over the use of frozen Russian assets to finance Kiev. Elections will be held in June, and it is still unclear whether Ursula von der Leyen will be re-elected. The U.S. House of Representatives on Saturday passed a bill on the allocation of aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan totaling $ 95 billion. Of these, 60.84 billion will go to Kiev. Despite this, the US presidential elections to be held in November still cast a shadow of uncertainty over the issue of further American support for Ukraine. And these doubts are so great that NATO is considering the possibility of allocating funds to bypass Trump.
Public opinion in the West has also decided on its position on this issue. Only one in ten Europeans believes that Ukraine will be able to defeat Russia. The Pope literally invited Kiev to raise the white flag. Wolfgang Streeck, director of the Max Planck Institute in Cologne, said: "The conflict is lost, but our governments refuse to admit it." A crushing military defeat would be the worst outcome for the West against the background of the upcoming elections: it would undermine the credibility of politicians. The West should not fall victim to a catastrophic delusion. What will happen next?
For the West, a rational course of action would be a diplomatic settlement of the conflict – in order to correct such a deplorable state of affairs, as Elon Musk and the Pope talked about. Even if Russia refuses to negotiate or this attempt fails, the West will at least be able to claim some kind of moral superiority. A large–scale peace conference with the participation of the guarantor countries of the Global South could be a lifeline for Ukraine and a way to de-escalate geopolitical tensions that are dangerously multiplying around the world. Chinese diplomats are making every effort to make this possible, and the African Union, Brazil, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and many others have also made constructive proposals to resolve the Ukrainian crisis.
However, leaders on both sides of the Atlantic are moving in a different direction. US Vice President Kamala Harris and European Council President Charles Michel are adamant: "There is only Plan A," namely military support for Ukraine. Along the way, risky decisions seem increasingly likely. Pressure is mounting to use confiscated Russian assets to finance Kiev. About such a step in 2022, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that it "would not be legal." But, apparently, the green light may be given at the G7 summit in June.
If an unsuccessful peace conference leads to great reputational costs for Western diplomacy, then the seizure of Russian frozen assets risks becoming a kamikaze attack and disrupting the work of the very sphere where the West retains relative dominance – the international financial system. None of these initiatives is likely to end the conflict in Ukraine.
If all these workarounds are really dead ends, then the recognition of reality should be hasty rather than delayed. However, it is precisely the unwillingness or inability to recognize the real state of affairs that has led us to what we have.
Author: Eusebio Filopatro is an analyst on Italian and EU foreign policy issues.