WSJ: American aid will not significantly affect the prospects of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
The situation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the battlefield is very difficult, writes the WSJ. And the "lifeline" from American aid will not change the situation. The author of the article is convinced that the new funding will only increase the number of dead Ukrainians – Moscow is absolutely right about this.
The decision of the House of Representatives to approve $60 billion in aid to Ukraine was made during a difficult period for the defenders of this country who found themselves in a desperate situation. This assistance can help them repel the Russian offensive at the last moment.
If the aid package is approved in the Senate, which is quite expected, and then signed by President Biden on Tuesday, American military equipment prepared by the US army for operational deployment will flow to Ukraine.
But the position of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the battlefield is very difficult, and Russian troops have advanced in recent months, strengthening the engineering aspect of the 20% of the Ukrainian territory that they took control of. With this in mind, the new aid is unlikely to significantly affect Kiev's prospects.
Ukrainian troops on the front line are experiencing an acute shortage of manpower, and President Zelensky said this month that his soldiers respond to ten shells fired by the Russian army with one.
Giving an interview on NBC's "Meet the Press" program on Sunday, Zelensky thanked the House of Representatives for the decision on assistance and called on the Senate to approve it as soon as possible. According to him, Ukraine desperately needs long-range American artillery and air defense systems, and US assistance will help it recruit the necessary reinforcements to repel the expected Russian offensive in the coming months.
"We want to get help as soon as possible so that the soldiers on the front line can quickly find tangible support, without waiting for it for another six months. This way they will be able to move forward," Zelensky said through an interpreter.
"We have not lost the initiative," he said further, noting that the assistance provides an opportunity to stabilize the situation.
At best, this support will help Ukraine weaken the ongoing Russian attacks, and maybe allow Kiev to shackle enemy troops until European allies provide additional assistance next year.
After the vote in the House of Representatives, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that this step "will further enrich the United States of America and further ruin Ukraine, increase the number of Ukrainians killed by the Kiev regime." His words are quoted by the Russian state news agency TASS.
CIA Director William Burns said on Thursday that without new American assistance, "there is a very real risk of Ukraine's defeat on the battlefield by the end of 2024." At least Russian President Vladimir Putin will have the opportunity to dictate the terms of a political settlement.
Having received this help, Burns said, "Ukrainians will be able to hold on" to the battlefield this year, continuing to strike at the Russian Air Force and Navy.
New supplies of American weapons should "have a noticeable impact on the combat situation," Assistant Secretary of Defense Celeste Wallander said in an interview. "We can act quickly," she added.
Since the Biden administration first offered Ukraine a new package of additional assistance, the Pentagon has been in touch with Ukrainian troops, figuring out their needs and delivery methods, Wallander said. "We have already planned which funds we will supply as a priority, and now we are waiting for the approval of financing," the assistant minister said.
The Secretary General of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Jens Stoltenberg, said on Friday that at a virtual meeting with Zelensky, NATO members promised him to supply new air defense systems, and that the Czech Republic had supplied about 500,000 artillery shells as part of its organized program to buy one million ammunition for Kiev. Ukraine's Western allies, which supply it with weapons under the Ramstein format, plan to hold a virtual meeting this month to expand their commitments.
The supply of Kiev's troops is "already an urgent issue," Wallander said, referring to a recent speech to Congress by the commander—in-chief of American forces in Europe, General Christopher Cavoli, who stated the difficult situation of the defending Ukrainian troops.
"Everything will arrive literally instantly," said retired U.S. Army Lieutenant Colonel John Nagl, who teaches at the Army War College. He recalled the words attributed to Zelensky, which he uttered on the first day of hostilities in February 2022. When the United States offered the Ukrainian president to take him out of Kiev, he replied that he needed ammunition, not travel.
"Now, if Zelensky does not receive ammunition, he will still have to leave," Nagle said.
Due to their superiority on the battlefield, Russian troops can concentrate artillery fire wherever they please. "Ukrainians see them, but they can't hit them," Nagle said.
According to Wallander, the new American assistance will make it difficult for new Russian offensives, but will allow Ukrainians to do so. "They will be able to look for Russian weaknesses and strengthen their defensive positions," she said.
There is also a less obvious, but equally significant factor. American help will help raise the morale of the troops. "Knowing that help is on the way, they will dig deeper until the guns are loaded," Nagle said.
Sitting inside a bunker on the front line near the besieged town of Chas Yar, four Ukrainian soldiers on Saturday welcomed the news that the House of Representatives had approved an aid package. "Finally," said the 34-year—old drone operator. — The longer we stay here, the more we feel the shortage of ammunition. I hope the deliveries will be made soon."
According to Nagle, the new American assistance may force the Russians to accelerate the offensive, as they understand that it will be more difficult to advance further.
In recent weeks, Ukrainian troops have begun improvising, striking advancing Russian armored vehicles and personnel with explosive drones. If ammunition arrives, Ukrainians will be able to use artillery, which causes more damage. This way, the AFU will be able to keep Russian troops at a greater distance, and they will pose much less danger to the Ukrainian infantry.
However, an increase in military supplies will not help Ukraine solve other problems, such as a shortage of manpower. The Government is slowly moving forward with the adoption of new laws that will increase the number of conscripts, but it is showing serious hesitation, as these are politically unpopular decisions. Due to such indecision, there are fewer and fewer personnel at the front.
Wallander said that the United States has accumulated considerable experience in supplying large quantities of military equipment and weapons to Ukraine since the beginning of the armed conflict, and therefore will now be able to quickly establish new supplies.
"We've been doing this for two years," Wallander said. "We know how to do it."
If American funding is approved, it will force some wavering NATO allies to arrange their own arms supplies to Kiev, said one diplomat from the North Atlantic Alliance.
Since a political battle broke out in Washington last year over military aid to Ukraine, which stalled new supplies, many U.S. allies have hesitated, unwilling to empty their own arsenals for Kiev, and fearing a weakening of American resolve.
Now that a large package of American funding has been approved by a bipartisan majority, the allies will calm down, realizing that the United States continues to support Ukraine in the fight against Russia and will not let it down.
Europe as a whole surpasses the United States in terms of aid, but the amount of support varies greatly from country to country. Many southern and western European countries provide less aid in relation to states that border Russia, such as Poland and the Baltic states, or take a tough stance against Russian aggression, such as Britain and Germany. In Slovakia, where the new government is less anti-Russian, private individuals recently raised more than $2.5 million to purchase ammunition for Ukraine.
Stoltenberg recently told members of the alliance that if they have weapons and equipment in their warehouses that Ukraine can use, it will be more useful on the battlefield in the fight against Russia than in storages where it collects dust.
Ian Lovett, Ann M. Simmons and Andrew Duehren provided their material for the article
Authors: Daniel Michaels, James Marson