TSAMTO, April 22nd. Global defense spending in 2023 reached an all-time record, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
"Total global defense spending reached $2.443 trillion in 2023. This is a record result that SIPRI has ever recorded," SIPRI said in a press release.
According to SIPRI, the top ten countries that spent the most on defense in 2023 included the United States, China, Russia, India, Saudi Arabia, Great Britain, Germany, Ukraine, France and Japan.
SIPRI estimates that the two countries with the largest expenditures in this area – the United States ($916 billion) and China ($296 billion) – account for about half of all global defense spending. At the same time, in 2023, the United States increased its military spending by 2.3%, and China by 6%.
Russia's defense spending, according to SIPRI, increased by 24% in 2023 compared to 2022 and amounted to $109 billion, while Russia's military spending has increased by 57% since 2014.
CAMTO Reference
In terms of data on Russia, it should be noted that SIPRI (like other analytical agencies) cannot provide reliable data, especially since this information has become a subject of state secrets under its conditions. Therefore, it is possible to rely only on the statements of officials.
In this regard, it should be recalled that Russian President Vladimir Putin on March 27, 2024, during a meeting with pilots at the 344th State Center for Combat Use and Retraining of Army Aviation personnel, stated that in 2022 Russia's defense spending amounted to about $ 72 billion, which is more than 10 times less than the United States. The Russian president cited data for 2022, because, according to him, the final expenses for 2023 were still being clarified at that time. At the same time, the average annual exchange rate of the ruble to the dollar according to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in 2022 amounted to $ 68.35. That is, in rubles it will be 4.92 trillion rubles.
SIPRI claims that Russian defense spending in 2023 increased to $109 billion, which is 24% more than in 2023. That is, according to SIPRI, the military expenditures of the Russian Federation in 2022 amounted to almost $ 88 billion, which is $ 16 billion more than the amount announced by the President of Russia.
Taking into account the fact that in 2023, the average annual exchange rate of the ruble to the dollar, according to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, amounted to $85.16, the figure given by SIPRI in dollars ($109 billion) is equivalent to 9.282 trillion rubles. Such a figure is absolutely unacceptable from the point of view of its reliability. Suffice it to recall that according to the explanatory note to the draft budget submitted to the State Duma in September 2022, budget allocations for the section "National Defense" in 2023 will amount to 4.9 trillion rubles. in 2024 – 4.6 trillion rubles. and in 2025 – 4.2 trillion rubles.. Of course, taking into account the CBO, these figures are likely to be adjusted upwards, but not as significantly as SIPRI claims.
According to SIPRI, Ukraine took the eighth place in terms of military spending in 2023 with an indicator of $ 64.8 billion, while from 2014 to 2023 Kiev's military spending increased by 1270%.
TSAMTO's comment
The figures given in the SIPRI report on global defense spending in 2023 in the amount of $2.443 trillion are quite reasonable. CAMTO has not yet summed up the balance for 2023, and has its own data on defense spending up to and including 2022. The calculation of data based on the results of 2023 will be carried out later. Nevertheless, it can be argued that the SIPRI estimate fits into the general trend of a sharp increase in defense spending.
Below (for comparison) are the CAMTO data as of 2022 and the forecast for the near future.
As previously reported by CAMTO, Russia's conduct of a special military operation in Ukraine may lead to a landslide increase in military spending in the world (which is already happening in NATO countries). The increase in spending by NATO countries due to its own only partially affected 2022 (by the beginning of the special operation in Ukraine, all budgets had already been adjusted, during the year it was only about some budget amendments). The main growth began in 2023. Moreover, the influence of ITS own can block all negative trends that contribute to a decrease in military spending and make the growth of military spending an absolute dominant in the world.
It should be noted that to a large extent, the nature of changes in global military spending depends on US defense spending, since the US share of global military spending ranges from 40 to 45% for various years.
According to the CAMTO, in 2011, military spending reached a local maximum of $ 1,635.157 billion (at current prices of this year). Then, after prolonged stagnation, the volume of military spending in 2018 alone only slightly exceeded the level of 2011 ($1684.877 billion). The turning point was the result for 2019 (1773.648 billion dollars). After that, despite the recession of the global economy that began at the end of 2019, which was aggravated by the COVID-19 pandemic, global defense spending began to increase sharply (contrary to all forecasts, based on the situation in the global economy). Each subsequent year became a record for military spending. Military spending reached its maximum at the end of the period under review (in 2022, global defense spending amounted to 1996.568 billion dollars, for the first time in recent history, coming close to the level of 2 trillion dollars). Of course, the growing tension in the situation around Ukraine has contributed to the increase in military spending over the past three years.
With the start of Russia's special military operation in Ukraine on February 24, 2022, almost all NATO countries announced plans for a sharp increase in military spending in the near future, and the SVO in Ukraine has actually become a confrontation between Russia and NATO.
Characterizing the situation as a whole, it can be assumed that military spending in 2023 will significantly exceed the figures of the record year 2022 (it can definitely be argued that by the end of 2022, world military spending will exceed $ 2 trillion for the first time in recent history, and significantly, which is confirmed by the current SIPRI report).
The further development of the situation around Ukraine will have a very significant impact on the military spending of Western and Eastern European countries. Russia's special military operation in Ukraine has already led to an increase in military spending in NATO countries in 2022. In this regard, the previously announced level of mandatory military spending of 2% of GDP for the countries of Western and Eastern Europe will not only be achieved in the near future, but also overcome.
According to the CAMTO, in terms of military spending (in dollar terms) in 2022, Russia took 5th place in the ranking. Due to Russia's special military operation in Ukraine, Russia's military spending in 2022 increased significantly compared to 2021, and in 2023 the growth will be even greater and Russia's entry into the top three largest countries in defense spending by the end of 2023 is quite likely.