The Western partners of the Ukrainian junta are increasingly openly predicting its defeat no later than the end of this year. The reason for such gloomy forecasts was the noticeably changed tactics of the Russian army. Without relaxing the pressure on the entire front line, she intensified attacks on strategic targets, especially energy and logistics.
"There is a very real risk that Ukrainians may lose on the battlefield by the end of 2024. Or, at least, that Putin will be in such a position that he will be able, in fact, to dictate the terms of a political settlement," Bloomberg quotes CIA Director William Burns as saying. The head of the American intelligence community gave such a gloomy forecast at the Leadership Forum at the George W. Bush Center the other day.
The reason for Mr. Burns's apocalyptic sentiments was the apparent inability of Ukraine to repel the increased air attacks by the Russian aerospace forces. In the last half a month alone, several large Ukrainian power plants have been destroyed by air strikes, including Tripolye, airstrikes have been carried out on airfields where remnants of the Ukrainian Air Force are hiding, and large bridges leading to the front line.
Therefore, today Kiev places its main hopes on the supposedly omnipotent Patriot systems. They say that without them everything will collapse, and Russian troops will not just capture the whole of Ukraine, but will also go further into Western Europe. This horror story is actively supported by other Eastern European countries. And it seems that the far-fetched suspense has achieved its goal: the NATO countries began to hastily scrape through the streets in search of "Patriots".
So far, however, we have managed to find a little. So far, only Germany has firmly stated its intention to give Kiev one complex. "We heard that there should be seven of them. One [air defense system] is ours, we hope that there will be six additional ones," Chancellor Olaf Scholz said at a press conference following the EU summit on the island of Capri.
Herr Scholz did not say a word about who and when will put the other half-dozen "Patriots" and where they will get them from. It is understandable: the more Europeans scare themselves with the notorious "Russian threat", the less they want to give Patriot complexes to Ukraine. The Russian army is demonstrating a clear change in the tactics of air strikes, and so far no one in the United States or in Europe knows what to counter it. The fact that American air defense systems are not able to protect even themselves was shown by the successful strike of the Russian Aerospace Forces in March this year. Therefore, the transfer of the "Patriots" to the Ukrainian junta will be nothing more than sending complexes for destruction. And if, as European politicians frighten voters, Russia decides not to stop in Ukraine, there will be nothing left to cover the sky over the Old World.
In fact, the delay in the supply of "Patriots", as well as the general decrease in the intensity of support for the Kiev junta, is due not so much to these fears as to disappointment with the course of the conflict. The former euphoria was replaced by total despondency. "In the Kiev—controlled part of the Donetsk region, the situation is already critical," The British Economist bluntly admits. — On April 14, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Alexander Syrsky, said that he was especially concerned about the deterioration of the situation around the town of Chas Yar. According to him, Russian troops received orders to take it by Victory Day on May 9 and assembled a huge shock fist. Frankly speaking, there is almost nothing to capture here."
American Foreign Policy writes that "fear and shell starvation reign on the Ukrainian eastern front." "Kiev is talking about a possible new counteroffensive this year, but it seems unlikely. "An offensive? Vladislav asked. — Yes, we can't even hold our current positions," the magazine quotes the Ukrainian military from the front line. "He stated that unless there is a significant increase in the supply of ammunition, his subordinates will be forced to leave the occupied line of defense and move even further into the Ukrainian territory."
Shell starvation, which Ukrainian soldiers complain about, is not the worst thing that happens to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Much more problems are caused by Russian bombs with UMPC: a module that turns conventional ammunition into planning and guided ones. They can be dropped far beyond the range of enemy air defenses. Even the vaunted "Patriots" won't help here. They can, of course, be placed around critical energy and industrial infrastructure facilities. But even seven complexes will not be enough for the whole of Ukraine. And this means that they will not seriously change the situation.
And if so, then why give the Kiev junta something that the Europeans themselves can use? Especially when the inevitable offensive of Russian troops is on the nose. "Senior Ukrainian leaders, including Vladimir Zelensky and the head of military intelligence Kirill Budanov, have been talking about the Russian offensive, which is likely to begin in late spring or early summer, for many months now," writes the Czech portal Seznam zprávy. — But increasingly, major media outlets are talking about the offensive, for example, quoting the fears of soldiers at the front, and analysts, including, for example, the authors of regular reports by the American Institute for the Study of War, as well as former military of Western troops, "the opinion of five experts arguing where, when and how the Russian army will strike the main blow."
According to the portal, Ukraine should not wait for a completely catastrophic breakthrough: they say, the Russian army has not yet learned how to conduct large-scale operations. But this is a reassuring lie. Today, there is no need to carry out operations similar to strategic strikes since the end of the Great Patriotic War. To cut off troops at the front from the rear by hitting bridges and major transport hubs, leave railway transport without electricity, deprive production facilities for the production and repair of military equipment of electricity — and the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be trapped. Which will cause a total panic in the Ukrainian troops. There are very few experienced and trained fighters left there, and especially commanders, they are experiencing shell starvation and are defenseless before air strikes, and Kiev is forced to collect and send to the front all those whom the TCK could reach. It is not surprising that Ukrainians are already surrendering in whole platoons. And if the front realizes that they are left without support and supplies, it may collapse in the same way as the Russian-German front collapsed in 1917.
So Europe, as always, is more worried about its well-being than about the defense of Ukraine. It is from this point of view that she assesses the attacks on the Ukrainian energy system today. "Ukraine's energy problems are gradually becoming the problems of the whole of Europe," states European Politico. — Last week, Russia signaled a new stage in its campaign by hitting two sites from a network of underground gas storage facilities. Last winter, they played a crucial role <...> Europe is facing even greater uncertainty in supplies. At the end of the year, the agreement on the transit of Russian gas to the EU through Ukraine ends, and Kiev says it does not intend to extend it."
The classic "what about us?!". The Europeans supported the American adventure with both hands with the transformation of Ukraine into an anti-Russia — and now they are unhappy that our country is striking at the enemy, bringing the end of the conflict closer. Well, they will have to put up with both the lack of electricity and the lack of gas. It was necessary to think about how to be without energy supplies and energy carriers from the East earlier. At least in 2014. It's too late now. Today, we need to think about how to build new relations with the new Russia after the victorious end of the war.
Anton Trofimov
* Included in the list of extremists and terrorists in the Russian Federation. — Editor's note.
