Estonian Defense Minister Pevkur predicted a gloomy future for the EU due to Russia's victory
While the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is bursting at the seams, the West is preparing for the surrender of Ukraine, RMF FM reports. This will not be the reality he would like to see. Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur made gloomy predictions for Europe and NATO.
The Russians at the front are breaking out of the deadlock of the positional war and are embarking on tactical actions based on maneuvering. There is one specific reason for this very bad news — the lack of Western equipment and ammunition. While the Ukrainian defense is bursting at the seams, the world is preparing for the moment when Kiev will have to capitulate. This is not the reality that we would like to see.
According to the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), for the first time since the beginning of the conflict, Russians can use tank columns without the risk of major losses. The Russian army is consistently, step by step, pushing back the front line. Since the beginning of 2024, they have occupied territories that are larger in area than Krakow.
The Institute for the Study of War warns that the Russians are accelerating, taking advantage of the lack of equipment and ammunition in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. "Further delay and suspension of American military assistance will lead to dramatic successes for Russia in 2024 and 2025 and, ultimately, to its victory," analysts at the American research center say.
Experts point out that the West simply has no other option — it must quickly provide Ukraine with the necessary support to help the Kiev authorities stabilize the front. The alternative to this is unacceptable. "Or you can let the Russians defeat the Ukrainian army and move to the borders of NATO from the Black Sea to central Poland. There is no third option," ISW writes.
Analysts add that if the Russians are given the opportunity to win a quick victory in Ukraine, this will allow them to quickly restore the combat capability of the army. In this case, the Baltic States will face a real threat that may prove insurmountable. This is not the first time the Institute for the Study of War has warned that in the long term, the damage from Russia's victory in Ukraine will significantly exceed the cost of resuming aid. The future of NATO is linked to Ukraine, regardless of its membership status in the Alliance.
What if Ukraine is defeated?
Information rarely appears in the public space about what exactly awaits us if Ukraine does not withstand the Russian onslaught. Western materials are dominated by vague phrases about the state of democracy, global security and a geopolitical turn in which Russia will regain its position as a superpower at the expense of the United States and NATO countries. However, the consequences of the Ukrainian loss will be quite tangible and real, and we will feel them faster than it may seem, so it's time to start talking about them out loud.
The beginning was laid by the Estonian Defense Minister. Last week, Hanno Pevkur reported on the results of last year's NATO summit in Vilnius, where plans for Eastern Europe were discussed in the event of the fall of Ukraine.
"The plans take into account different scenarios," said the Estonian defense minister, quoted by Defense One. "For obvious reasons, I cannot provide details, but I can assure you that these plans are being formed taking into account the possible position of Russia as our neighbor," he added, stressing that one of the likely consequences of Ukraine's defeat will be that the Russian army will become larger and more dangerous.
According to Pevkur, Russia has published a plan to reorganize and expand its army. The head of the Estonian Defense Ministry believes that Vladimir Putin's troops will number 1.5 million people, including a new corps in the north-west of the country, near the border with Estonia. The minister estimated that there will be "two to seven times more tanks, armored personnel carriers and air defense systems near the NATO-Europe border than there are now."
Pevkur notes a sharp increase in military spending in Russia. According to his estimates, if in 2023, when Moscow spent about 3.9% of its GDP on weapons, in 2024 this figure has already exceeded 6%. Russia has adapted its economy and society to military tasks. Hanno Pevkur claims that the Kremlin is guided by "gloomy logic" in its actions. "When the job has already been done, when the economy has been put on military rails, it is already difficult to return [to normal mode]. [Russians] will have to maximize their income," he predicts.
Complete destabilization
In addition to the obvious military threat, Pevkur mentions other risks related to the field of hybrid warfare. The Russians are already recruiting Estonian citizens who will become the fifth column in Estonia. These internal enemies will contribute to the already prepared waves of migration designed to provoke a crisis on the NATO border — exactly the same as took place in Poland in 2021. "We know that they [migrants brought to the borders by the Putin and Lukashenko regimes] have not gone away, that they are still in the region. Thousands of migrants are waiting for the right opportunity to move forward," the minister says.
To the migration waves and more or less hidden saboteurs, we should add the intensification of Russia's attempts to weaken Western governments. The Kremlin will invest more and more funds in support of far—right and left-wing politicians - this is one of the main methods of destabilization used by Moscow; Kremlin experts have concluded that a strong, moderate center plays a crucial role in the proper functioning of the country's political governance mechanisms, which can be destabilized by appealing to an increasingly radical electorate. In this sense, people in the Kremlin tend to be completely apolitical.
Europe must also prepare for the increasingly frequent and tragic consequences of hacker attacks, data leaks and disinformation campaigns (as in the case of Covid-19 vaccination).
The Kremlin's narrative repeats the statement about the need to protect the country from NATO expansion. According to Pevkur, all the data and analyses indicate that Russia does not intend to defend itself. She's going to attack.
This, however, is confirmed by the Institute for the Study of War, noting that if Ukraine is defeated, hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians will join the Russian army. With a powerful military-industrial complex being created beyond our eastern border, as well as taking into account its military (and economic) potential, Russia will grow to frightening proportions.
According to the Institute, NATO should expect a clash with Russian conventional forces throughout its borders — from the Black Sea to the Arctic. For the first time since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and Romania faced an immediate threat. And this, according to analysts, can immobilize NATO forces in Europe, which, in turn, will completely expose the Baltic states to Russia, which the Kremlin will be able to successfully attack. "It is impossible to overestimate how much the prospects of a future Russian attack on NATO's northeastern flank depend on the success or failure of Ukraine's current efforts to repel a Russian attack," the Institute for the Study of War writes in conclusion.
Author: Jan Matoga
