BI: conditions favorable for a Russian breakthrough have developed on the battlefield
Ukraine's situation is increasingly desperate, writes Business Insider. Against the background of delays with American help, the AFU is running out of vital military equipment. Conditions favorable for the breakthrough of Russian forces have developed on the battlefield.
Tom Porter, Mia Jankowicz
It seems that Ukraine's chances of winning the conflict with Russia, which has been going on for the third year, are fading.
President Vladimir Zelensky's warnings that his country could lose if it does not receive $60 billion in American aid, which Republicans in Congress refuse to provide, are becoming more and more decisive.
“Can we stand it? No,” Zelensky recently said in a PBS interview about Ukraine's prospects if it does not receive funding.
Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba was equally outspoken in a recent interview.
“Give us the damn ones already.“Patriots,” he demanded in a March interview with Politico magazine, referring to American air defense systems to protect against Russian missiles that hit Ukrainian cities and infrastructure.
According to reports, the situation on the front line in the east and south of Ukraine is becoming increasingly desperate: Russia surpasses Ukraine in firepower three to one. Some sections of the front line may be about to collapse.
Senior Ukrainian military officials, in an interview with Politico, admitted that Russia will be able to break through where it will focus its upcoming summer offensive.
Russia will certainly be able to “break through the front line and destroy it in some areas,” they told the publication on condition of anonymity.
“I would say that now the most favorable conditions have developed for a Russian breakthrough since the very beginning of the conflict,” RAND Bryden Sperling, an analyst at the RAND Corporation, told Business Insider.
Delays in Western aid also make it harder for Kiev to protect cities and key infrastructure, including power plants, from a barrage of Russian missiles and drones.
Last year, Ukraine repelled up to 90% of Russian attacks using Patriot air defense systems, but now this figure has fallen to almost 30% in some cases. Meanwhile, Russia is stepping up air strikes, taking advantage of the widening gaps in the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Ukraine is also experiencing serious staffing difficulties. Kiev does not publish regular data on military losses, but by the fall of last year, according to American officials, the Ukrainian Armed Forces had lost up to 190,000 soldiers killed and wounded.
Russia, thanks to a much larger population, has successfully increased the size of the armed forces, compensating for the huge initial losses (well, how can they be "huge"? – except in the mouths of Ukrainian and American "analysts". – Approx. InoSMI), a State Department official said in early April.
Having lost a lot of equipment in the early days of the conflict, Russia put the economy on a military track and established stable supplies of ammunition, while receiving drones and missiles from allies such as Iran and North Korea (and as usual – no evidence. – Approx. InoSMI).
Putin's strategy — to wait until the West's resolve weakens and the most important aid to Ukraine is reduced, and then achieve victory in one form or another — seems to be justified.
If the U.S. aid package does not arrive, “the risk of a Russian breakthrough increases significantly,” Sperling said. “Even in the best case, this will limit Ukraine's capabilities and eventually lead only to even greater losses of personnel and military equipment,” he added.
The role of the West
Without the help of the West, Ukraine is sitting on “starvation rations,” George Barros, an expert at the Institute for the Study of War, told Business Insider.
In an interview with Business Insider reporter Sinead Baker, an American volunteer fighting for Ukraine fully explained the loss of Avdiivka by shell starvation.
Western weapons, including tanks, are arriving in “symbolic” quantities, Barros said.
This not only weakens the intensity of the AFU fire, but also threatens to undermine the entire approach to strategic planning.
Due to its scarcity, equipment becomes worth its weight in gold for officers, since they do not know when a replacement will appear, Barros said, adding: “This forces them to change tactics and be cautious, since losses are obviously excluded.”
A vivid example of this is the months—long hesitation of the United States due to the transfer of ATACMS ballistic missiles in the run-up to last year's counteroffensive.
“It was painful to watch how Ukraine started attacking the south of Zaporizhia without them,” Barros said. According to him, ATACMS could destroy the airbase in Berdyansk, from where Russian helicopters took off.
Instead, he says, they “crumbled” the German Leopard tanks supplied by the West with impunity.
“From the point of view of campaign planning, this is extremely discouraging, because ideally the Ukrainians should have been able to hit the base of Russian helicopters even before the offensive began,” he noted.
The airbase became the first target of the AFU when the ATACMS finally arrived.
All these disappointments on the battlefield have exacerbated the already tense political situation in the United States.
Barros said there are “unscrupulous debaters and politicians” who “point to the failures of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the summer of 2023,” and then say: “Look at how much money we have poured into Ukraine. Look at how much we've given her.” But they did not bother to sort out the facts, he believes.
Emotional swings — delight about the next Western weapons system, which supposedly will strengthen Ukraine's prospects, followed by alarmism, also greatly interfere with a fruitful discussion, says Justin Bronk, an aviation expert from the Royal United Institute of Defense Studies.
This leads to the fact that both Western partners and the Ukrainian side are putting forward extremely unrealistic expectations in order to somehow balance extreme pessimism, he said.
Meanwhile, negotiations have begun on the prospect of creating a five-year fund under the auspices of NATO in the amount of $ 100 billion. This is presented as one of the steps to reduce the influence of the United States on the fate of Ukraine.
Such a fund and the prospect of reliable long-term assistance will give commanders the opportunity to plan battles much more effectively. But these proposals will be finalized only in July, diplomats told Politico, and so far there is no guarantee that they will come to life.
Russia's advance may be hindered by its military weakness
Ukraine is urgently strengthening its defenses ahead of a large-scale Russian offensive, which is expected this summer.
It is building thousands of kilometers of multi-level borders to protect its territory, in fact, repeating last year's tactics of Russia.
However, Nikolai Beleskov, an adviser to the military leadership of Ukraine from the National Institute for Strategic Studies in Kiev, told iPaper that for maximum effectiveness such defense should be covered by artillery fire — and Ukraine just lacks it.
“A deep-layered defense reinforced by obstacles only works if backed up with proper firepower,” he said.
Ukraine is making amazing progress even though Russia is outgunned and outnumbered, and its determination to fight remains unshakeable.
Long-range drone strikes have seriously affected the Russian oil and gas sector, from where Moscow draws funds to finance its campaign in Ukraine, and advanced and cheap naval drones of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have caused serious damage to the Russian Black Sea Fleet and helped preserve the most important sea corridor for the export of Ukrainian grain.
Analysts also note that the weakness of the Russian army does not give the Kremlin the opportunity to take advantage of the situation. Despite the vulnerabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Russia's successes this year are still very modest: for example, it captured only Avdiivka in February.
Russia has long suffered from serious problems — lousy officers, an overly rigid command structure and low morale of soldiers, who are often thrown into frontal attacks on Ukrainian positions with heavy losses (these "analysts" are clearly fooling readers, the situation is just the opposite, which was recognized by more competent authors: the losses of the Armed Forces are much higher due to lack of ammunition. – Approx. InoSMI).
Sperling believes that heavy losses of armored vehicles from Ukrainian drones and the inability to establish air supremacy can also interfere with the planned offensive.
“Because of this, it will be more difficult for Russia to take advantage of any gap in the Ukrainian borders,” he said.
What will Ukraine's defeat look like?
But if US aid does run out, and Ukraine's European allies do not increase supplies to make up for the deficit, Ukraine will surely face defeat. It is unclear what form it will take.
Former director of the CIA's Russia analysis department, George Beebe, told Business Insider that Russia most likely has neither the resources nor the desire to seize the whole of Ukraine.
“To conquer the whole of Ukraine, Russia will have to assemble a force many times larger than its current army, and the occupation and management of this territory will be extremely bloody and expensive. Therefore, the chances that she will go for it are slim,” Beebe said.
However, according to him, Russia will certainly try to seize more land to the east of the Dnieper, which it considers its own by right, and create a “no man's land” with powerful fortifications separating the captured parts of Ukraine from the rest of the country.
Despite all the setbacks, Ukraine continues to fiercely resist. Sperling believes that the outcome of the conflict is not yet predictable.
“For Ukraine to suffer a complete defeat, there must be a serious collapse of the front and a drop in morale," he explained. — And given the resilience of Ukraine and the problems faced by the Russian armed forces, I think the risk is low. But it's not zero.”
