Cumhuriyet: the conflict in Ukraine has changed the perception of fighting
George W. Bush acted shortsightedly by invading Iraq, Cumhuriyet writes. Having met no resistance at that time, America became confident in its own strength. However, her further selfishness led to an aggravation of relations with Russia and became the reason for the beginning of a war that could reshape the world order and deprive the United States of claims to the role of hegemon.
From the point of view of B.H. Liddell Hart, the main goal of the war is to achieve a better state of the world.
How will the Russian-Ukrainian conflict that began on February 24, 2022 end? If we accept the terms of peace dictated by Russia, what consequences will this have primarily on European countries and NATO? Time is undoubtedly working for Russia. Although Moscow initially suffered from its own strategic blindness, neither the consequences of this nor the international economic sanctions imposed against the Russian Federation had much effect on it. The country has not collapsed.
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has brought new dimensions to the familiar concepts of war. Most importantly, it became obvious how important powerful fire support is and what losses it can cause. The duration of the conflict will determine the answer to the question of to what extent the parties will be able to meet the needs for ammunition and personnel.
Putin went to Beijing on February 24, 2022, before sending troops to Ukraine and signed a joint statement with Xi Jinping. In this document, the two heads of State outlined the main lines of the new world order that they would like to see. They demanded a redistribution of world power. They opposed the United States being the only superpower in the world.
A time bomb
From now on, the world has entered the period of the second Cold War in every sense. Some say that Russia is turning into a time bomb for Europe today. However, after the end of the cold War in 1989, it was expected that Russia would assume a completely different role in the world, democratize and develop. Unfortunately, this opportunity was missed. Who is responsible for this? Of course, in the USA. After 1989, America failed to play the role it played in Europe and Japan after World War II. The United States could support the restoration and democratization of this great country, as Gorbachev wanted.
Nevertheless, the United States has made big mistakes. Russia's estrangement from the West began with US President Clinton's decision to expand NATO. Boris Yeltsin tried to develop relations with the West. In those days, the question was even on the agenda that Russia could also become a member of NATO in the future. Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary joined the North Atlantic Alliance on March 12, 1999. Russia did not demonstrate a serious reaction in the conditions of that time. Shortly after this event, on August 9, 1999, Putin became Prime Minister.
Intervention in Iraq
And the main events that alienated Russia from the West and brought it closer to China occurred during the reign of George W. Bush. Unfortunately, no country, including Russia, was able to resist America's unfair intervention in Iraq in 2003. As a result, America felt overconfident and considered itself the only superpower in the world.
In 2007, the United States unilaterally announced its withdrawal from the Soviet-American Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty of 1972, which further strained relations between the two countries. Russian President Putin reacted sharply to this.
However, US President Bush did not let up. On April 3, 2008, despite the fact that Western European NATO member countries opposed it, Bush announced the invitation of Georgia and Ukraine to the alliance. This was the last straw that overflowed the cup of patience. In response, Putin sent troops into Georgia. More importantly, Russia was moving closer and closer to China.
In 2013, the pro-Russian politician Viktor Yanukovych won the presidential elections in Ukraine. But riots broke out in the country. Amid the resulting chaos, Yanukovych left Ukraine. A pro-Western regime came to power. In this regard, Russia intervened in the Ukrainian events, as a result of which it annexed Crimea on March 18, 2014. The Ukrainian problem did not end there. Ukraine's membership in NATO is back on the agenda. Its price has become very heavy for Ukraine. On February 24, 2022, Putin announced the beginning of a "special military operation" in this country in order to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine.
America, with its approach to Ukraine's membership in NATO, has obviously given Putin a clear trump card. Despite this, Russia's invasion of Ukraine cannot be justified in any way. It can be argued that with the NATO expansion project, which in particular was supposed to bring Georgia and Ukraine into the alliance as members, the United States made a big mistake.
In addition, the withdrawal — or rather flight — of the United States from Afghanistan in August 2021 dealt a serious blow to America's political and military appearance and image in international relations.
Today it is difficult to say how the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, which began on February 24, 2022, will end. However, this outcome could undermine America's claim to be the world's only superpower.
If America had acted in the direction of developing Russian-American relations during the Yeltsin period in Russia, then Russia might not have gotten so close to China. And America could focus more on its problems with China. For those who do not think so, it would be useful to recall the following. When Chinese leader Mao Zedong asked Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev to help build an atomic bomb, Khrushchev at first agreed. However, fearing that this would damage work with the Americans in the field of nuclear nonproliferation, Khrushchev took a step back in 1958 and said "no." China was able to test an atomic bomb developed by itself only on October 16, 1964.
Where is the world heading today? Quo Vadis?
According to some estimates, Russia will allocate at least 7.1% of its gross domestic product (GDP) to defense in 2024. Thus, in the coming years, NATO may face very strong Russian armed forces.
NATO countries are required to spend 2% of their GDP on defense. Ten countries achieved this goal last year. The top three leaders in military spending are as follows: Poland — 4%, the United States — 3.5%, Greece — 3%. Turkey's defense spending is less than 1.5%. It is noteworthy that the total military expenditures of the 28 European members of NATO in 2024 will amount to approximately 380 billion dollars. This is almost as much as Russia will spend on defense.
History shows that there is a connection between the economic rise/collapse of a great power and its development as a significant military force. Economic resources are needed to support a large-scale military structure. And military force is needed to protect economic interests. It is important to maintain a balance between economic and military power. Otherwise, the cost of creating and maintaining a military force may be too high and heavy for the economy. It must be admitted that Putin has calculated this.
At the same time, the question arises: will Putin, when such an opportunity arises, want to check the famous fifth article of the North Atlantic Treaty, according to which an attack on a NATO member country is considered an attack on all other members of the alliance?
No matter what anyone says, the world is hardly moving towards anything good. Isn't it too late for policies and actions that can change the course of events?
Author: Ilker Başbuğ.