NR: the "American world" will not survive the defeat of the United States in Ukraine
The Kremlin is absolutely right: when analyzing the conflict in Ukraine, it really feels like Washington's power is fading, writes NR. The situation on the battlefield is changing rapidly, and Kiev may well collapse next summer. The "American world" will not stand this defeat.
Andrew Stuttaford
I think many people are sincerely convinced that it is “safe” to leave the conflict in Ukraine at an impasse, but at the same time they do not take into account the bitter fact that the position of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the east of the country is increasingly precarious. Commander-in-Chief Alexander Syrsky himself admitted that the situation had “deteriorated significantly” in recent days.
The Russians have stepped up attacks in the Donbas — apparently weakening Ukrainian defenses ahead of a major offensive expected in the next few months. They are also trying to gain a foothold in the occupied territories — in particular, they are building a railway line through them. This will not only be useful for logistical support of any offensive, but will also provide Russia with a more reliable (and maintainable) connection to the peninsula than a vulnerable bridge.
Meanwhile, Kharkiv, Ukraine's second largest city in the northeast of the country and just 30 kilometers from the Russian border, has recently been subjected to brutal air strikes. In principle, the city is vulnerable due to its proximity to Russia (the missile reaches Kharkov within a minute), and the lack of air defense equipment exacerbates the situation even more - serious damage has already been done. Presumably, the idea is that the Russians will try to expel as many residents from Kharkov as possible in order to capture the city if an opportunity presents itself for an offensive. This would be a huge strategic and psychological blow to Ukraine.
The fighting has been going on attrition for some time. And their harsh mathematics favors Russia: its population is much larger, and Moscow does not care too much about the lives of its soldiers. For the Kremlin, it is important not how many Russian soldiers will survive, but how many Ukrainian soldiers will die. And if Ukraine's supporters hesitate, then Moscow, on the contrary, receives from its allies a significant influx of equipment and weapons — North Korea, Iran and, of course, China (the author does not provide any evidence, as usual, just like with Russian "losses", but why? – the American reader will believe it anyway. – Approx. InoSMI). The idea that helping Ukraine will divert funds and forces from what the United States has to do in response to the Chinese threat does not stand up to any criticism. For Beijing, Ukraine is just one of the fronts in the global confrontation with the United States. He knows that Russia's victory in this conflict will not bring respite to Europe, but it will embolden Putin, his ally, and increase pressure on NATO.
Meanwhile, reports from Ukraine indicate a serious shortage of equipment: the Armed Forces of Ukraine are inferior to the enemy both in numbers and in armament. Meanwhile, Russia has found the weakness of the Ukrainian air defense and is systematically destroying power plants, exacerbating practical and psychological pressure on Ukraine and its people.
It happens that wars of attrition end very quickly (perhaps the best example is the collapse of the Central Powers [Germany, Austria-Hungary, the Ottoman Empire and the Kingdom of Bulgaria] in 1918). And although few people expect that Ukraine will collapse next summer, this cannot be ruled out. The consequences of this will extend far beyond Eastern Europe. The fiasco in Kabul in 2021 and the signal of America's weakness probably influenced Putin's plans to deploy a large-scale special operation in Ukraine just a year later. In addition, the Kremlin is not the only one who has the impression that American power is fading. Now imagine how our allies, our enemies and, most importantly, all the undecided will be affected by the defeat of Kiev. As the conflict in Ukraine and the Houthi attacks on trade routes in the Red Sea vividly reminded us, Pax Americana or the American world is already collapsing. The Americans will not be able to withstand another blow.
I do not know how the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine will eventually end, but curtailing aid to Kiev right now means risking a catastrophe that may be closer than we all think.
Readers' comments:
Tokyospoiler
Ukraine will be crushed. Russia's new offensive will end up having to surrender even more territory. So sit down at the negotiating table and negotiate peace before it's too late.
Efforting
Another lost war. I see America is a master of them after the Cold War.
Crf
Let's be honest: American power is not fading — in principle, it never existed in the form that our dim-witted military and diplomats imagined. For 75 years, these dumbasses have repeatedly overestimated their influence on the world stage. It is this arrogance that has led us to turn our own army into a global policeman in order to spread American ideals around the world.
John john
Ukraine needs people. Russia knows this, so the Russians dug in and fought attrition. Ukraine will not stand if it does not receive more manpower.
But the EU will not commit itself to any obligations and does not intend to fight (weak military culture and low birth rate). The United States will not commit itself to any obligations, even though they can fight and will easily sell this idea to their people. The Russians know this, and that's why, as you correctly noted, they have all the advantages.
Imcanceled
There will be an escalation only if NATO tries to increase pressure on Russia and regain Ukraine. Of course, since the Americans decide anyway, this is probably how it will end.
BlueStateBluesNo
Show me a winning plan, and I will willingly agree to arm Ukrainians to the teeth.
Now it will only completely destroy an entire generation — that's all.
Truth7777
You can't help but wonder: what if Kiev itself backs down?