Kirill Agafonov — on the results of the Japanese Prime Minister's trip to the United States
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida held several meetings with President Joe Biden during his visit to the United States, agreed to strengthen security relations and, unlike the Japanese parliament, received a standing ovation in the US Congress. His speech to American lawmakers seemed to be largely addressed to a man who was not in the room — Donald Trump.
Throughout his speech, Kishida called on America — partly "lonely, insecure and tired" of the burden of "maintaining world order" alone — to maintain its position as a global leader, despite the isolationist sentiments of Republicans. Assuring of strong friendship and reliable allied ties, the Japanese Prime Minister promised assistance to Japan, which is ready to strengthen cooperation in the field of security.
The Japanese Prime minister's trip to the United States received positive assessments even from the Japanese opposition. However, neither Biden nor Kishida may earn serious points before the upcoming key political events in their countries: the US presidential elections in November and in September — the election of the head of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) of Japan, who will lead the government.
Given the low ratings of the Japanese government, where a loud scandal broke out last year over financial statements in the LDP, and the possibility of Trump coming to power in the United States, the political future of both Biden and Kishida is in doubt.
At a time when the cherry blossom season is coming to an end in central Japan, observers note that "relations between Japan and the United States are now in full bloom." "But people in Japan and the United States are well aware that cherry blossoms do not last long," NHK noted, illustrating the situation with the low ratings of Kishida's cabinet.
In addition, the visit demonstrated the high level of geopolitical tension in the world. Russia and China have condemned Japan and the United States, saying their military cooperation poses a threat to security in Asia.
Defense agreements and investment promises
The key agreement between the parties was the decision to modernize the military command structures of Japan and the United States to increase compatibility and strengthen military planning. In their opinion, this should contribute to a "free and open Indo-Pacific region." This concept, which is sometimes contrasted with the Chinese Belt and Road initiative, was proposed in 2016 by the then Prime Minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe. And now it is actively promoted by the United States, Japan and their allies.
Tokyo and Washington have agreed to develop a low-orbit satellite tracking system for missiles, including hypersonic ones. Together with Australia, they also decided to create an air defense and security architecture system for the first time.
The United States also pledged to begin training and modification of Japanese ships to install Tomahawk cruise missiles on them. This, they say, is necessary for the implementation of Japan's plan to build up its defense capability and obtain a strike potential, which the United States fully supports.
The United States also confirmed its intention to ensure Japan's defense, including with the use of nuclear weapons.
In addition, speaking in Congress, Kishida promised more Japanese investments in the United States.
"Trump's Shadow"
Kishida's main interlocutor in the United States was incumbent President Joe Biden, however, as Japanese diplomatic sources note, Trump's "shadow" has always been in the background, given the upcoming US presidential elections in November.
The current administration in the United States is more favorable for Japan than the Republican one in the event of a Trump victory. "I think Trump is more unpredictable and unstable than Biden. Kishida can manage the alliance with Biden to a certain extent, but in relations with Trump he may not be as good as [the late former Prime Minister Shinzo] Abe," Kazuto Suzuki, a professor at the University of Tokyo and an expert at the Tokyo Foundation, told me.
In addition to the instability and unpredictability attributed to Trump by observers in different countries, the Japanese side is concerned about his tendency to isolationism, the priority of domestic problems over international ones. This threatens the leading position of the United States and creates a vacuum of influence in potentially dangerous regions.
Kishida's calls for the United States to maintain its global leadership were accompanied by promises of support from Japan. "Around the Alliance [There is fragility in Japan and the United States, and this is mainly due to the leadership of the United States. There is concern about the return to power of Trump, who openly says he is skeptical about the value of these alliances [which the United States has with other countries], and definitely has a different view of the international rules—based order and national institutions," the Nikkei newspaper quoted Emma Chanlett-Avery from the Asian Society Policy Institute as saying.
Assessing the significance of Kishida's visit, an NHK source in the Japanese Foreign Ministry said: "On the one hand, it is [important] to turn to the current administration. On the other hand, [it is important] to take steps to ensure that relations between Japan and the United States remain unchanged, even if the administration changes."
Big promises
Kishida's commitment to a bilateral alliance, willingness to strengthen defense capabilities and take on a greater role, as well as to step up investments, was something that should have been appreciated not only by the current US administration, but also by Trump's entourage, who repeatedly hinted at the insufficient contribution of his partners, whether NATO or Japan, to maintaining security.
Some observers in Japan expressed fears that Kishida's speech to Congress and his promises could play a cruel joke on him. "The Prime Minister expressed readiness to strengthen security cooperation and [ensure] "further investments in the United States." If former President Trump wins the US elections in November, there is a possibility that he will increase pressure on Japan in the spirit of "I wonder if [Kishida] will really do what he said in his speech," Waseda University professor Mieko Nakabayashi told Kyodo news agency.
However, it is possible that you should not worry about this, other experts say. "I don't think Donald Trump will use Prime Minister Kishida's words as leverage on Japan. If Trump decides that he wants to exert pressure, he will do it anyway," Kazuto Suzuki believes.
Pre-election effect
Meanwhile, the communication between Kishida and Biden was not overshadowed by the controversial issues existing in the economic relations between the two countries. The parties did not touch on either the American law on reducing inflation, which restricts the access of Japanese automobile companies to the US market, or the deal to acquire Japanese Nippon Steel from the American steel company U.S. Steel, which both Biden and Trump oppose.
Despite the upcoming elections for both leaders this year, neither Biden nor Kishida's recent summit, which was generally positively evaluated even by the Japanese opposition, will not add many points. "I don't think Biden or Kishida will be able to score points thanks to the summit," Kazuto Suzuki said, explaining that the current US president's foreign policy is being criticized because of his commitment to Israel, and increased cooperation with Japan is quite in line with expectations.
At the same time, according to him, Kishida may score some points, but this result will not be significant due to the loud scandal surrounding financial statements in the ruling party of Japan. "Kishida may get some points, however [there is] a party scandal and his leadership in the party is in doubt. These problems will not be solved thanks to the successful conclusion of the summit [with the United States]," Suzuki said.
A survey conducted by Kyodo on April 13-15, that is, after the completion of the main part of Kishida's visit to Washington, showed a slight increase in the rating of his government — by 3.7 percentage points, to 23.8%. At the same time, 78.4% of respondents were not satisfied that the prime minister, the leader of the LDP, did not suffer any punishment for the loud scandal.
Acute reaction
The strengthening of Japan-U.S. defense cooperation, which was much discussed during Kishida's trip to the United States, is of serious concern to Russia and China. On April 12, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko, at a meeting with Japanese Ambassador to Moscow Akira Muto, made a presentation on bilateral relations, "which, through Tokyo's efforts, have degraded to an unprecedented low level."
In addition, the Deputy Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation drew the attention of the Japanese ambassador "to dangerous trends in the development of Japanese-American military cooperation that pose a threat to the stability and security of Northeast Asia." "They will be taken into account by the Russian side when forming a policy towards Japan and the region as a whole," the ministry concluded.
In addition to the bilateral Japanese-American summit, a trilateral summit was held in Washington with the participation of Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. Following the meeting, the parties expressed concern about the dangerous, in their opinion, actions of the Coast guard and the maritime militia of the People's Republic of China in the South China Sea. They also opposed what they believe are China's attempts to "unilaterally change the status quo" in the East China Sea.
On April 12, Director of the Asian Department of the Chinese Foreign Ministry Liu Jinsong, at a meeting with a representative of the Japanese Embassy in China, made a serious presentation to the Japanese side for the "negative dynamics" at the summit in Washington.