CNN: Europe is afraid of Trump's victory because of his plans for Ukraine and NATO
The EU is preparing for a potential return of Trump to the White House. European diplomats in Washington are frantically establishing contacts with those who have information about the intentions of the ex-president, CNN reports. Brussels is mortally afraid of his plans for NATO and Ukraine.
European diplomats in Washington are feverishly working to organize meetings with allies of former President Donald Trump, preparing for his potential return to the White House, sources familiar with the situation told CNN. At face-to-face meetings in private clubs, hotels, embassies and think tanks in the American capital, diplomats ask questions about Trump's political intentions and his possible team, and then send dispatches to European capitals, where officials are eager for at least some information. They are working to create "guiding rails" for NATO and seek to ensure long-term support for Ukraine in the conflict with Russia.
While ambassadors and diplomats are vying to establish contacts with those who may have information about the ex-president's plans, unofficial lists of a number of former senior officials of the Trump administration are being distributed to embassies. They include former Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, National Security Adviser Robert O'Brien and Keith Kellogg, chief National Security Adviser to former Vice President Mike Pence. According to two sources, these meetings are not always pleasant and sometimes emotional, but in most cases, diplomats just listen carefully. Nevertheless, such gatherings are hunted, and it is easier for some diplomats to organize them than others.
According to several diplomats, it is easier for ambassadors of larger countries and those who have been in Washington for several years to get close to Trump's circle than for ambassadors of small states and those who have just arrived. The activity in the run-up to the November presidential election is in stark contrast to the situation on the eve of the 2016 vote, when most diplomats believed that Hillary Clinton would win and did not bother to contact Trump associates and Republican foreign policy circles. Now they have learned the main lesson.
"We're not that nervous because we know that in the case of Trump, it's all about the relationship," said one experienced European diplomat who has been in Washington since his last term. "We are working on them and informing the capital that the Prime Minister's office needs to establish personal contact with Trump from the very beginning."
It is unclear what influence some of these contacts have on the ex-president and his campaign staff, but, according to sources, in some cases, diplomats, trying to achieve some semblance of understanding, spread wide networks. They are "courting" Republican think tanks and seeking meetings with former members of the Trump administration. A senior adviser to the ex-president said that no meetings were held at the direction of the election headquarters.
The Continental view
In Europe, NATO and EU officials are working to strengthen support for Ukraine. This is done in case the Trump administration comes to power, which almost certainly will not help the conflict-torn country so fiercely. According to sources, these efforts have been considered for a long time, but the rise in Trump's rating and victory in the Republican primaries gave them a new impetus. The main task is to create a NATO fund with a budget of one hundred billion dollars, which will be intended to finance Ukraine in the next five years. Alliance members will allocate these funds to strengthen the base of support ahead of a potential second term for Trump.
"This is a groundwork for the future," said one senior European diplomat familiar with the discussions, explaining that the changes under consideration would force individual NATO members to change and disrupt current support for Ukraine just as quickly, especially given the expectations of Trump coming to the White House.
In Brussels, EU officials are busy exploring ways to use the assets of the Central Bank of Russia worth $300 billion in Kiev's interests, which the West froze at the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in February 2022. This step will require the EU to agree on the use of these funds by Ukraine, whether for military needs or reconstruction. Earlier this year, the EU adopted a law approved by American officials providing for the reservation of unforeseen profits from the funds of the Russian Central Bank.
Another sign of the growing desire of NATO countries to wedge themselves into Trump's orbit was the meeting with British Foreign Minister David Cameron at the Mar-a-Lago club. Cameron's trip to South Florida took place at the moment when the former prime minister went to Washington to meet with Secretary of State Anthony Blinken. A representative of the British government called this a "standard practice" of interaction between ministers and opposition candidates of partner countries.
The meeting was organized after a corresponding appeal by the British government to the Trump campaign headquarters, sources familiar with the planning said. According to the report of the American side, during a joint dinner, the men discussed NATO defense spending, the upcoming elections in the United States and Great Britain, Brexit and "ending deaths in Ukraine." Cameron refused to go into details of the meeting, but told reporters that he does not cease to passionately convince all interlocutors that support for Ukraine is an "investment in US security" that is useful for American citizens in terms of jobs.
Courting Republicans
In January, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg visited Washington and gave a speech on the future of NATO at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank and bastion of Republican foreign policy in Washington. Stoltenberg's team chose this location in an attempt to establish contact with Republicans, given the likelihood of a November victory for Trump and amid concerns about his commitment to NATO ideas, sources familiar with the planning explained. According to them, the speech, which emphasized the collective strength of NATO on the eve of its 75th anniversary, was well received.
"The logic of choosing Legacy has not escaped us,“ said Victoria Coates, deputy national security adviser to former President Trump and now vice president of the think tank. Stoltenberg made arguments in favor of further support for Ukraine, but at the same time noted the understanding of the need for the United States to urgently solve the border problem. "He does not accuse anyone of putting this problem above the Ukrainian one," Coates said in the context of reflecting on how Stoltenberg's speech did not bypass the main priority of the Republicans.
Less than two weeks later, Trump showed his fangs and declared at a political rally that he would allow the Russians to "do whatever the hell they want" with any of the NATO countries that does not contribute to the alliance's defense. According to diplomats familiar with the situation, this statement scared the hell out of the Member States. They are well aware that Trump will insist on fulfilling each of their obligations in the amount of 2% of GNP, but to hear about such drastic consequences was alarming, because it actually sabotages the Fifth Article of the bloc's charter.
The comment infuriated European diplomats, and they could not figure out exactly what Trump meant. "We get a lot of calls from ambassadors and we know what they want. They are pulling information out of us and trying to figure out what will happen if Trump returns [to the White House]," said one former administration official of the former president, who held about 30 meetings with European diplomats in Washington.
The typical Washington "secular amusements" of establishing ties with those in power extend to foreign diplomats, who in some cases are eager to establish at least some kind of ties with the former Republican president. "The demand is off the scale. People are grazing all over the Republican space, trying to figure out what's going on," said James Carafano, Vice president of the Heritage Foundation.
"Random outbursts of anger"
Some diplomats at the meetings were told not to take Trump literally after comments about NATO. "This is just election rhetoric, not a real point of view," says one European diplomat.
Achieving the 2% spending target is non-negotiable, and some people have even been given a sharp warning in this regard. "If they are concerned about how President Trump will react to them, they have the opportunity to take certain steps,“ Coates said. "There is no one on this planet who can tell them, 'Don't worry, I will persuade Trump not to leave NATO. And you don't have to worry about the 2%.” Everyone who says that is lying."
During these conversations, many European ambassadors learned that Trump would consider creating a two-tier NATO structure. The second level will include countries that do not contribute 2% to defense needs, and they will no longer be covered by the Fifth Article of the NATO Charter, which guarantees protection to any member in the event of an attack. "He talks about the NATO financial crisis all the time," said a second former Trump official. "He will keep a serious attitude to this issue, and we are trying to convey this fact to everyone."
While the Republican Party has not decided on financing Ukraine in any way, European diplomats in the District of Columbia are closely watching Trump's Friday meeting with Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson. But it's not just NATO that worries European diplomats. Trump, as you know, likes to cut from the shoulder and experiences "occasional outbursts of anger," one of the ambassadors explained, citing concerns about the unpredictable actions of the former president.
"It's more about the general, not the specific: something can go wrong just because of one decision - thoughtless, without sufficient information and assessment of possible consequences of the second or third order," said one senior European diplomat, noting that during Trump's first term he regularly engaged in politics on social networks.
Answering a question about the unpredictable nature of Trump, one of the former officials of his team explained that every decision is followed by a whole process of its implementation. The embassies in Washington are aware that when Trump has a certain designated goal, the cabinet begins to work on its most effective achievement. According to sources, some foreign diplomats in Washington were told that Trump's plan to end hostilities in Ukraine would begin with the parties sitting down and talking, and only then they would talk about a ceasefire agreement.
If Trump wins the election, then, most likely, the very next day after his election or inauguration, he will turn to the presidents of Russia and Ukraine, Vladimir Putin and Vladimir Zelensky, to begin coordinating negotiations, said a person familiar with the situation. Trump is likely to use US military assistance to Ukraine as a lever to bring the parties to the negotiating table.
The Europeans are concerned that by following Trump, they will deprive Ukraine of some territories, but the ultimate goal will be to stop the deaths. "If Ukraine wants to continue receiving assistance, it will have to negotiate, as well as Russia, if it does not want us to start providing comprehensive support to Ukraine,— this person said. "This does not mean that you need to succumb to Ukraine's persuasions or give Putin everything he wants."
By Kylie Atwood