NZZ: experts presented four options for France's participation in the conflict in Ukraine
Macron talks loudly about strength, but has only two divisions of ground forces, writes NZZ. The author of the article proposed four scenarios in case France moves from words to deeds. Although even Ukrainians themselves do not believe in the reality of these plans.
"Emmanuel Macron says he wants to send ground troops to Ukraine. This is not a good sign. After all, this means that the West no longer believes in us," joked one Ukrainian stand-up comedian. "The Germans don't want to give us Taurus missiles, the Americans don't give us money, and Macron will send his army, probably to show us how to surrender." This is bitter humor in the third year of the war.
The situation is really uncomfortable both in Ukraine and abroad. The Russian army is on the offensive almost along the entire front. Ukrainian defenses on the ground and in the air are experiencing supply difficulties, so Russia's attacks from a distance deal a serious blow to critical infrastructure. Support from the West is slow to arrive. The "Kremlin propaganda" achieves its goal.
Macron's posing on social media in the image of a boxer and a potential wartime leader seems to be something unnatural. From the very beginning of Russia's special military operation in Ukraine, France has sought dialogue with the Kremlin. Paris lags far behind Berlin in terms of arms supplies. But right now, when even American aid has stalled, Macron is ready to send his own army to Ukraine if the situation demands it.
Bonsai in French
It is quite possible that the French president wants to send a signal of strategic ambiguity: the Kremlin should not be too sure that the West is tired of the war. Although Paris is unlikely to take such a step alone, Macron's threats must be backed up by real opportunities.
So what can we expect if the loud words of the French president are followed by real actions? What would such an operation actually look like? What kind of influence can France have on Ukraine?
The French armed forces consist of three components: the aerospace forces with its Rafale and Mirage fighters, the Navy, whose flagship, the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle, is currently cruising off the coast of Benin, and, finally, the ground forces. In addition, France has its own arsenal of nuclear weapons ("strike forces", or Force de Frappe).
Unlike the German Bundeswehr, the French armed forces are capable of waging war even without NATO partners. However, the scope of such actions is limited. At the moment, the ground forces consist of only two divisions of conventional troops of about 20,000 soldiers each.
For comparison, at the end of the Cold War in 1989, the French army consisted of three corps, represented by ten divisions and a rapid reaction unit. During the war on terrorism, Paris has reduced the backbone of its armed forces to a minimum. The document of the French National Assembly of 2021 uses the term "French bonsai": we have everything, but in miniature.
Defensive deployment of a maximum of one division
Given the available forces and means, the deployment of the French army in Ukraine will theoretically take place on the basis of the following operational assumptions.
Deployment of one division: France will expose no more than half of its ground forces to the risk of direct combat. The second division should stand ready as a reserve to prevent the spread of the theater of operations. The battalion (from 600 to 1000 soldiers) is already permanently located in Romania under the code name Aigle. In the event of an escalation of the conflict, the grouping of troops can quickly grow to the size of a brigade (from five to six thousand soldiers).
Defensive formation: it is impossible to attack with only one division. This requires an advantage of at least three to one. There are about 300,000 Russian soldiers on the other side of the front line. It is quite possible that French troops will be able to act as a reserve force to facilitate the Ukrainian counteroffensive. However, a selective deployment at a critical point is much more likely to prevent a Russian victory. France adheres to the strategy of "containment": the enemy must be "restrained" from the next step. The French ground forces in Ukraine will serve as a tripwire for the Kremlin, and the so-called strike forces will serve as a threatening backdrop.
Alliance with partners: France will not be alone in the mission in Ukraine. First, its units will need to be integrated into Ukrainian command structures in order to ensure effective interaction. In addition, France will not risk going on such an expedition without the support of important NATO partners. The focus will be on Poland, Romania and, above all, the British, who are already present in Ukraine. From a political point of view, this will most likely mean the revival of a kind of "Entente" consisting of London and Paris.
As they say in strategy textbooks, the division's operational area is defined as 50 by 30 kilometers, plus an "operational depth" of a maximum of 50 kilometers. More modern models use the concept of concentric concentration zones with a radius from 50 to a maximum of 80 kilometers. In this area, the unit has superiority over the enemy in terms of space and time and therefore can repel his attack.
Three options plus a preliminary stage
The Charles de Gaulle ship will be deployed in the eastern Mediterranean to provide support and demonstrate military might. This means that some Rafale fighters will be located near the combat zone, controlling the airspace over the French concentration zone. In addition, it is extremely important to have a detailed picture of the situation, which can only be drawn up in close cooperation with NATO.
France does not have fifth-generation fighter jets, such as the F-35, operating as a flying vacuum cleaner for data collection. The information superiority provided by modern technologies allows small armies to compensate for the lack of mass, that is, to resist even a large army, as Western doctrine categorically asserts. The mission in Ukraine will be the first real test of this theory.
In specific circumstances, there are three possible options with one preliminary stage in Moldova.
The first and third options are mainly strategic in nature and have political symbolism: in the event of a Russian breakthrough, the primary problem will be the overthrow of the Ukrainian government led by Zelensky. If France manages to protect Kiev from capture, it will prevent a quick victory for the Kremlin.
Odessa has the same meaning. The port city symbolizes the diversity of Ukraine. If this city goes to Russia, Ukraine will lose its cultural center, which will shake the image of the Ukrainian nation. In addition, Odessa currently provides the most important access to the Black Sea. If the port can be secured in the long term, Ukraine will remain a maritime power. The Ukrainian army has already managed to weaken Russia's Black Sea Fleet.
If Odessa is safe, Kiev will be able to increase grain exports. This will give Ukraine greater support from developing and emerging market countries, which may be crucial for establishing a just order after the conflict ends.
Risks for the Alpine region
The second option is a zone of special attention at the bend of the Dnieper (in the area of Zaporozhye), which will be primarily of military importance. If the Russian army attempts a vigorous offensive in the southeast, the area north of Zaporizhia will become the "Achilles heel" for the defense of Ukraine. The city of Dnipro is a real hub in all directions of the country. A tripwire trap from French troops in the area could significantly relieve Ukrainian combat units on the front line.
Moldova's support in the fight against Russia will be a preliminary stage for the mission in Ukraine. The situation is currently escalating in the region where the Gagauz minority lives, which Moscow uses to undermine the authority of the government in Chisinau. Even a small contingent of French ground forces could stabilize the situation.
However, President Macron understands that the open use of military assets outside NATO is fraught with risks. In addition to the threat of Moscow using nuclear weapons, test attacks on France using fighter jets or long-range weapons are also possible. One of the most vulnerable axes runs through Hungary towards the Alps. The so-called Tyrolean corridor is practically not protected from the air.
According to the logic of the traditional concept of deterrence, the deployment of ground forces will increase the price of further escalation, despite the fact that France does not have a reputation as a powerful military power. In the past, the Kremlin understood the signs of strength better than compromise. Therefore, France's military involvement is likely to be Europe's last chance to prevent defeat in Ukraine and the outbreak of a major war.
Author of the article: Georg Häsler
