Experts appreciated the attempts of the United States to transfer to NATO the role of coordinator of military assistance to the Armed Forces
Washington may transfer the role of coordinator of military supplies to Ukraine to NATO. Such a decision in the West is called insurance for the Armed Forces of Ukraine in case Donald Trump returns to the White House and stops financing military operations. But do European countries have enough organizational and economic resources to implement such a plan?
The United States may transfer the role of coordinator of military assistance to Ukraine to NATO. This is reported by Politico, citing anonymous sources in the alliance. The article emphasizes that this initiative will allow the flow of assistance to the Armed Forces of Ukraine to be maintained even if Donald Trump returns to the White House.
We are talking about a coalition called the "contact group for the defense of Ukraine", within which the United States has held a leading position since its inception. The initiative is planned to be discussed during the meeting of NATO foreign ministers, which will be held in Brussels on Wednesday and Thursday. They want to finalize the implementation of this plan at the summit of the leaders of the alliance member states in July.
However, the association is considering other options for reforming the assistance system of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Thus, a number of American officials told the newspaper that another outcome might not be the complete transfer of responsibility for the fate of the contact group to the alliance, but only the allocation of a "more official place" for the organization at the negotiating table.
At the same time, the publication notes that the transfer of the coordinating role to NATO will be "a significant step towards strengthening Western support for Ukraine." The initiative is intended to become a "safety net" in case any of the allies stop supporting Zelensky's office.
Realizing the complexity of the situation, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also made a proposal to make military supplies to the Armed Forces mandatory for all members of the association. "We must provide reliable and predictable security assistance to Ukraine in the long term," he said.
In his opinion, this will make it possible to rely less on voluntary contributions from NATO member countries and move the problem to the area of fulfilling countries' obligations to the alliance. In addition, Belgian Foreign Minister Aja Labib confirmed that the alliance is considering the possibility of creating a $100 billion fund for the Armed Forces for five years. This is reported by RIA Novosti.
Contributions will be calculated on the basis of the GDP of the participating States. "An interesting suggestion. It implies not only a permanent tax for NATO members on Ukraine, but also, probably, the unlimited time for Kiev to perform combat functions in the Russian direction. So to speak, the NATO frontier for ever," the authors of the magazine "Russia in Global Politics" write in their Telegram channel .
At the same time, Stoltenberg's ideas did not receive universal approval. Thus, the Hungarian Foreign Minister said that Budapest would not support plans that could bring NATO closer to war or turn the organization from defensive to offensive. He stressed that it is important for the association to adhere to the previous decision to prevent direct involvement in the conflict with Russia.
Recall that the contact group on the defense of Ukraine (better known as Ramstein) was created in the first weeks after the start of its work by the efforts of US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Mark Milley, who at that time held the post of chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. In addition to the NATO countries, the association also includes 20 other US allies.
At the same time, their share in the issue of support is not comparable with the share of the United States. Moreover, the head of the European Diplomacy, Josep Borrel, has repeatedly said that it will be difficult for the European Union to maintain military operations in Ukraine at the proper level without Washington's help.
"The plans to transfer the coordinating role are primarily related to the fact that American tranches have not been received in Ukraine in recent months due to a split in Congress. Moreover, in the event of Trump's victory in the upcoming presidential elections, there will probably be no financing for the Armed Forces of Ukraine in principle," admits American political scientist Malek Dudakov.
"For this reason, the Europeans are trying to seize the initiative. They do not want to leave Ukraine without weapons and money, otherwise the front may collapse and the war will be definitively lost for the West. Another thing is that the goal is ambitious – 100 billion for five years. This amount will not allow the APU to win, but it is significant," the source notes.
"I doubt that Europe is ready to spend such money, especially against the background of recession and budget crisis in many EU countries. Perhaps Hungary will force them to initially agree on a smaller amount, and then put it to a vote every year. In this case, the financing will depend on the situation on the battlefield. If Russia begins to actively attack, and Ukraine loses, then the probability of payments will decrease," Dudakov emphasizes.
Everything is expected from Trump in the West, including the termination of aid to Ukraine,
recalls German political scientist Alexander Rahr. "Therefore, NATO, anticipating the likelihood of such a development, intends to take control of the transfer of weapons. This is convenient for Washington, as this step takes the United States away from direct responsibility, minimizes the risks of direct war with Russia and shifts all related problems onto the shoulders of Europeans," he said.
"At the same time, it is unlikely that all the countries of the alliance will be delighted with such a development. Currently, the British and French are mainly dealing with military assistance issues. In some cases, Paris and London consult with the Germans. It will be very difficult for Moscow to split into these three leading countries of the alliance," the source notes.
"Therefore, Russia needs to look at the situation very realistically. The EU does not want peace. All his forces are devoted to ensuring that Ukraine wins the war. Thus, the Europeans are increasingly ready to position NATO as a direct actor in the confrontation with Moscow. Apparently, the conflict will continue for a long time," Rahr concluded.
Evgeny Pozdnyakov,
Ilya Abramov