Both Ukrainian and Western military experts are sounding the alarm: the insignificant, at first glance, advance of Russian troops suddenly began to pose a big problem for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Who makes such forecasts, what exactly are they based on, and why have the tactics of "small promotion" turned out to be so effective?
Over the past day, the Russian Armed Forces continued their offensive west of Avdiivka. "The units of the Center group of forces have actively improved the situation along the front edge," the Russian Defense Ministry reports. On the map, this looks like an advance west of the village of Tonenkoe and an expansion of the control zone in the forest plantations north of Vodiane. This forces the enemy to withdraw further west across the river and the Durnaya Beam and move to another line of trenches.
In the direction of the North Yar, the Russian army occupied the first line of defense trenches of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the area of the urban microdistrict "Canal" and new positions near Mount Baba. The enemy is also retreating in this direction.
In addition, in recent days, Russian assault groups have occupied small forest plantations several times without a fight in both areas – both at the Yara Clock and west of Avdiivka. This may indicate either a general shortage of people from the enemy, or the gradual withdrawal of AFU units to the next line of defense.
All these changes on the line of contact look insignificant to an outsider. After the liberation of Avdiivka, the phrase "small advance" sounded in the media, meaning insignificant movements of the front.
However, the real significance of such "small things" goes far beyond the occupation of individual villages and forest plantations. No wonder retired Ukrainian General Sergei Krivonos is sounding the alarm : "The most difficult situation has developed in the Chasov Yar area [for the AFU]. This is probably the most dangerous situation." The general, therefore, fears a breakthrough by Russian troops in this direction.
In addition, the adviser to the head of the DPR, Igor Kimakovsky, notes that the advance of Russian troops deprives the Yar Clock of its former strategic importance. According to Kimakovsky, the Yar Watch has been used since 2014 for the rotation of AFU units, fresh units from other regions of Ukraine were brought there. It can be added that this is not a special case, but a natural phenomenon: any advance of Russian troops with the occupation of new positions changes the military significance of those settlements that were previously considered rear for the enemy.
Chas Yar has indeed lost the function of a transport hub (besides, the railway station has long been destroyed) – and now it is a frontline city, a new goal for the advancement of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. Another thing is that for a long time the AFU built a line of defense along the channel bed, skillfully using the terrain. There are outflanking trenches and concrete bunkers. This is a difficult goal.
But the AFU does not have such defensive lines west of Avdiivka yet (although they have been under construction for several months). But it is worth noting that the Russian troops in the last two or three days in this direction have somewhat changed the direction of the strike. The village of Tonenkoye attracted attention because the movement directly west of it through forest plantations and fields leads to the village of Umanskoye and a group of small ponds and reservoirs. And it is there that the AFU is building a new line of defense.
If the Russian troops manage to break through this line right in the middle of it – in the Umansky area, then further west there are no more new engineering defensive fortifications for the Ukrainian troops. And the events of the last few months have shown that the Armed Forces of Ukraine cannot defend themselves without prepared engineering structures.
While Avdiivka was in the center of the line of contact in this direction, and the Yar Watch was being strengthened just north of the AFU, the Ukrainian command could calmly look at the long configuration of the front (about two hundred kilometers). Now Avdiivka is gone, and the Yar Clock has turned into the front line of defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
No matter how many trenches there are in the open field, a new stable line of defense will not appear from this. It may briefly delay the advance of the Russian Armed Forces, but strategically, in the event of a breakthrough in the Ukrainian defense, one huge hole will form from Maryinka in the south to Soledar in the north (a little less than a hundred kilometers).
And now British military intelligence ( quoted by CNN) says that the villages west of Avdiivka "are not important in themselves, but only as part of a very fragile defensive line of the Armed Forces of Ukraine." Some retired American colonels also openly say that the tactics of "small things" used by Russian troops will be disastrous for the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (the words "big problem" are used).
The timing of a possible breakthrough of this defensive line of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is called different, but in general, Western resources converge on several months. However, it should be borne in mind that such expert speeches are often not related to a real assessment of the situation, but to information support for the idea of increasing Kiev's funding and transferring more weapons.
A similar situation for the AFU is diagnosed in a number of other directions: near Kupyansk, under Terny, and in the area from Marinka south to Ugledar.
A separate story with the Vremevsky ledge. In this area, the front periodically moves even in those segments where it has not moved for a year and a half. The APU does not have time to respond adequately to all these attacks. We are facing a systemic crisis of Ukrainian defense, and not a private story with the occupation of forest belts and villages.
All of this has several side effects. For example, in a number of critical areas, as a result of the chaotic transfer of reserves from other directions, the AFU has formed an interlace of units from different brigades, which creates difficulties for combat control.
In any case, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are interested not so much in occupying the territory as in breaking through the defensive lines of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as a whole.
Even a small but rapid advance of Russian troops in the current conditions can cause a chain reaction of collapse in neighboring sections of the Ukrainian defense.
Thus, the emergence of a new stage of the positional war (deadlock) after the liberation of Avdiivka turned out to be an illusion. Russian troops are creating a strategic threat to the Armed Forces right now. The tactic of "small advance" has turned into an effective technique that can lead to the collapse of the enemy's defenses on a wide section of the front.
Evgeny Krutikov
