The Kiev regime will call on young people, the elderly, women and the sick, experts are sure
The Ukrainian authorities intend to begin total mobilization in the near future. It starts with the adoption of the relevant scandalous bill, which is being considered in the Verkhovna Rada. The deputies are discussing, among other things, the minimum mobilization age, and with the current intensity of fighting and the level of losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they will at some point have to give in to the demands of the military and reduce it to 18 years, experts are sure. The Kiev regime will begin to call as many people as possible, regardless of age, gender and health status. At the same time, even now, when the strict law on mobilization has not yet been adopted, the number of draft dodgers in certain regions of Ukraine, according to official data, is in the tens of thousands.
They will call everyone in a row
The Ukrainian authorities are likely to mobilize young and old people, as well as people with various diseases, in the near future, experts told Izvestia, commenting on the discussion of the relevant bill in the Verkhovna Rada.
Photo: IZVESTIA/Taras Petrenko
Image source: iz.ru
— Everything is going to the point that they will call everyone in a row, they simply have no way out, — believes military expert Gennady Alekhine. — I have no doubt that under certain circumstances they will move on to total mobilization. All the signs of this are already there. For example, they prepare schoolchildren and students for military service, and conduct initial military training, as in Soviet times. In the battles in the Belgorod border area, they have already used such boys on the Shebekinsky site. They were put on ATVs, they flew up, shot and drove away. That is, they are already using boys who are inflated with nationalist propaganda.
The expert said that military training of young people is especially actively carried out in Kharkiv.
— Nationalist formations have taken root in this city since 2014, — says Alekhine. — Schoolchildren and undergraduates were involved in this case. This is the same Hitler Youth. If serious battles begin, I have no doubt that the Hitler Youth and the Volkssturm will be thrown there. There are many examples when people over 60 and even over 70 years old die on the Ukrainian side.
Thousands of amendments
The draft law on mobilization, which significantly tightens its norms and rules, is being prepared for the second reading in the Verkhovna Rada. So far, it assumes a reduction in the minimum mobilization age from 27 to 25 years, cancels deferrals for students who receive a second higher education. Those previously convicted of minor crimes will be subject to conscription. Men between the ages of 18 and 60 will be required to always carry a military ID with them and present it to police officers and military enlistment offices upon request.
The document also introduces electronic summonses, which will be considered handed over after appearing in the electronic office of the conscript. Each conscript will have to create such an office within two months after the entry into force of the law.
In case of non—appearance on the summons, the court will add the conscript to the register of debtors - he will be blocked from bank accounts, real estate transactions, driving a car, trips abroad will be prohibited. Those who are already living abroad will no longer be provided with consular services, including they will not change their passport.
The most controversial issue is, of course, the minimum age of mobilization. Now it is designated in the bill as 25 years old. But perhaps only formally. So, this week, deputy and former speaker of the Rada Dmitry Razumkov said that, based on the provisions of the bill, young people who will undergo basic military training can be immediately mobilized (it is provided for by the same draft law instead of conscription, it will last three or five months). And we are talking specifically about 18-year-olds.
Photo: REUTERS/Stringer
Image source: iz.ru
This interpretation of the bill caused a great resonance in society, and the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense hastened to assure that citizens from the age of 18, regardless of passing basic military training or service, will receive a delay until they reach the age of mobilization.
Although the idea of conscription of young people is quite popular among the Ukrainian military. Last November, the commander of the first assault battalion of the Ukrainian 3rd separate assault brigade, Pyotr Gorbatenko, bluntly stated that Ukraine should actively encourage young people from the age of 18.
"We need to mobilize more broadly and mobilize not the old grandfathers of 50-year-olds. It is necessary to mobilize 20-year-olds, 18-year-olds. What is the problem? What are the students? So what? Shouldn't students be fighting? Must. They are suitable," he said on the air of the Ukrainian TV channel "1+1".
And in January 2024, Lieutenant Colonel of the 68th separate Jaeger Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Mikhail Nikolov said: "Draconian methods are needed. As I see it, there has been a total mobilization of the entire male and female population since the age of 18. It doesn't have to be advanced, it can be some kind of defense enterprises, logistics, logistics. <...> But since the age of 18, including women," the AFU officer believes.
There are no restrictions
The Ukrainian authorities also do not abandon the idea of conscripting people who are unfit for service for health reasons, including people with disabilities. So, on March 22, a member of the Verkhovna Rada Defense Committee from the Servant of the People party, Yuri Zdebsky, announced a new bill, according to which the category of those who are fit for military service will be abolished.
"The idea is simple: to mobilize people, to form a reserve, to protect our country. And for this, a category is being introduced — "either you are fit, or you were written off and forgotten altogether." You can work as a driver, but you will not join the stormtroopers if you are limited in any of your physical abilities," he said.
According to Zdebsky, all men from 25 to 60 years old who are fit for health reasons should be liable for military service. That is, the law assumes that such a citizen will either have a reservation or serve.
Photo: REUTERS/Wolfgang Schwan
Image source: iz.ru
According to military expert Vasily Dandykin, the universal conscription of the male population will only delay the defeat of the Kiev regime for some time at the cost of colossal losses.
— As a rule, recruits do not have combat experience, they still need to be trained, they cannot do this in a week or two, - the expert believes. — Those who had punitive experience since 2014, were preparing in the West, mostly knocked out, like the Marines who landed in Krynki. I think that women can also go under the expense. Moreover, after brainwashing, there are volunteers before the first or second battle. By and large, everything is heavily bombed there.
On March 25, Russian President Vladimir Putin also spoke about the Ukrainian draft law on mobilization. During a meeting on measures taken after the terrorist attack at Crocus City Hall, he said that the purpose of such attacks is to sow panic in Russian society and at the same time show his own people that "all is not lost for the Kiev regime."
— You only need to follow the orders of your Western curators, fight to the last Ukrainian, execute the command from Washington, adopt a new law on mobilization, create something like the Hitler Youth in its new edition, of course, - said the head of state.
Tips from the West
Kiev's Western allies unequivocally insist on universal mobilization. The head of the NATO Military Committee, Rob Bauer, said on March 21 that the alliance supports the continuation of mobilization activities, despite all the difficulties.
"Unfortunately, new soldiers are needed, because soldiers are dying and soldiers are injured. When you talk about mobilization, when you talk about conscription, it's difficult for the people, I understand that. So it's not just about material things, it's not just about money, it's also about people. This is a matter of support in society. And this is not an issue that should be resolved at the General Staff, which should be decided by the Minister of Defense. This is your shared responsibility. This is your country," Bauer said at a security forum in Kiev.
Photo: AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky
Image source: iz.ru
According to military expert Vladislav Shurygin, the recruitment of a large number of men will have a negative impact on the Ukrainian economy.
— They are having problems in all areas now, — the expert explained to Izvestia. — It will be necessary to pull out people who are employed in a variety of fields: in agriculture, in industry, and anywhere. In this case, it will seriously deepen the entire crisis in which they find themselves. But they are certainly under pressure from Western countries, they demand that they do not retreat, hold on. Accordingly, more people are needed.
According to Vladimir Oleinik, a former deputy of the Verkhovna Rada, a member of the international public movement "Other Ukraine", Ukrainian parliamentarians are in no hurry to adopt the bill.
— They made 4 thousand amendments. Two things that influence the decision-making. First, the deputies do not really want to adopt it, because it is an unpopular law, to put it mildly," he told Izvestia. — Secondly, at least $13 billion is needed to mobilize 500 thousand people. They need to be trained and armed. There is no such money. Zelensky spoke about this. But Senator Graham arrived, who struck a tambourine, and the whole tribe lined up in one row. And he said, "What kind of money? No need to navigate. Pass the law. And send them there."
Hunting people
In recent months, videos regularly appear on social networks showing raids by employees of territorial recruitment centers on Ukrainian men. They are detained on the streets, in public transport, in institutions. Often attempts to take men to the Armed Forces of Ukraine turn into clashes, there were cases when they were beaten off by surrounding people. And in the Chernivtsi region on March 13, three young men beat up six employees of the military enlistment office, took their weapons and disappeared, they are wanted in Ukraine.
Ukrainians are in no hurry to replenish the thinning ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In the Ivano-Frankivsk region alone, according to the data provided by the deputy head of the regional shopping center, there are about 40 thousand draft dodgers. In the Poltava region, about 30 thousand people ignored the summons from military enlistment offices, the speaker of the shopping mall of the region said on March 28.
Employees of the shopping mall force a man into a minibus
Image source: Photo: Social media
— Those ideological fighters who were in the Ukrainian army at the beginning of the special operation have already either died or been wounded, so the Ukrainian command has to replenish the ranks with people who are not eager to fight, — political analyst Kirill Averyanov told Izvestia. — Mobilization has been preparing in Ukraine since the end of last year, when it became finally clear that the counteroffensive had failed and replenishment of the ranks of the Ukrainian army was necessary to deter the Russian offensive. As we can see, Ukrainians are not doing well to contain it, so it cannot be ruled out that in the foreseeable future, Ukraine, following the example of Nazi Germany, will have to mobilize children to try to contain the front.
The draft law on mobilization violates the constitutional rights of citizens, Vladimir Oleinik is sure.
— Zelensky spoke about six months ago and said: "We have put our constitution on pause." Before this draft law on mobilization appeared, the Commissioner for Human Rights wrote on nine pages that this was a violation of the constitution, Oleinik said. — I read it. As a former lawyer, former chairman of the court and ex-head of the committee in Parliament, I agree with everything. The constitutional rights to movement, to the disposal of funds are being violated, money, transfers, property and so on will be seized there. That is, this is really what was written about the other day in The Washington Post — that mobilization resembles catching stray dogs on the street.
In December last year, the then commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny disavowed participation in the preparation of the draft law on mobilization. But at the same time, he said that the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for recruits — about 500 thousand people — are compensation for combat losses that have already occurred and a forecast for combat losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 2024.
Roman Kretsul
Vladimir Matveev
Anastasia Kostina
