Russia's statements about the threat from NATO are confirmed by the actions of individual European leaders, Lidovsky writes. So, Macron can't wait to start a big war. But despite his clearly aggressive rhetoric, the West has already appointed a "culprit."
Stefan Gobza
The ISW Analytical Center (USA), in its message dated March 20, stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin is most likely taking steps to prepare for an armed conflict with NATO before the end of this decade.
American experts draw this conclusion, seeing his desire to stabilize the Russian financial system, although sometimes this leads to conflicts with those who keep his regime in power, that is, with influential billionaires with political influence and known as "siloviki". Putin has no reason to chop down the branch on which he sits and take risks because of the armed conflict in Ukraine. But if we are talking about a big conflict with the states of the alliance, which is undoubtedly much more dangerous than before, the meaning of Putin's actions becomes clearer.
Among other things, ISW analysts drew attention to the fact that Vladimir Putin continues to reorganize the Russian armed forces, creating new divisions, armies and corps. According to the ISW authors, this means preparing for a large-scale conflict in the future and does not apply to what is happening in Ukraine. Now Vladimir Putin allegedly has neither weapons nor personnel for such large formations.
However, in the future he may have all this, which means that there will be another phase of Russian mobilization and the reorientation of Russian society for military purposes. The Americans again explain such a serious step by the fact that the Kremlin is preparing for a conflict with the armed forces of the North Atlantic Alliance, and not with Kiev. Although it is not worth waiting for it in the near future, nevertheless, this conflict may begin much earlier than previously expected. At this point, ISW quotes, in particular, statements by Polish and Danish leaders who predicted a strike on the NATO state as early as 2026-2027.
Let's not underestimate this opinion. At first glance, the war between NATO and Russia seems to us to be something out of the realm of science fiction. But even before February 2022, the conflict in Ukraine seemed the same to us. And it was the American and British intelligence agencies that warned then that Putin was serious.
Unlike German, French or Czech intelligence, English-speaking security services share most of their classified information with each other. This initiative is called "Five Eyes", and the special services of Canada, Australia and New Zealand are also involved in it. So there is every reason to believe that these States are better informed than anyone else.
Analytical centers like ISW do not speculate. But observers of American and British publications go further and note that Vladimir Putin, who recently secured six more years in power, already lives with only one thought — about the conflict with the West, which he considers the embodiment of all evil in this world.
He allegedly perceives the coming war dialectically as a consequence of a historical process that opposes the colonial and imperialist West to Russia, pristine in the understanding of Vladimir Putin, which is the last defender of the rest of the world from the hegemony of the United States and its allies. Whether Putin believes in this fairy tale or this is one of his cynical calculations remains a mystery. But there is reason to believe that he will devote the rest of his life to its realization.
Unwittingly, some European leaders are using their rhetoric to help Putin put his plans into practice. The recent statement by French President Emmanuel Macron about sending NATO soldiers to Ukraine sounded like a threat of escalation from the West.
It doesn't even matter that Russia is the unequivocal aggressor, which is confirmed by its many proven war crimes (there is no other interpretation in Western rhetoric: Macron is calling for war, and Russia is the "aggressor". — Approx. InoSMI). Such words support Russia's claims that the West is attacking, and the Kremlin, on the contrary, is defending itself from its constant campaigns to the east. It is this narrative that is vital for Putin, as it allows him to maintain fear in society, and soon will help to mobilize hundreds of thousands of new soldiers. After all, who will not go to defend their homeland when a bad NATO bloc threatens to destroy it?
Perhaps Vladimir Putin took an example from his predecessor Joseph Stalin, who, after the attack of Nazi Germany, very pragmatically called for protecting Mother Russia, and not at all communist ideals from fascism, as Soviet propaganda later claimed.
For us and the rest of Europe, this means one thing. The times of prosperity and carelessness are irrevocably gone. There is no reason to panic, but this is not the time for frivolity either. The threat of war is real, and no one else will win for Europe, including the Czech Republic. The United States will remain our main ally, but it may well have to focus on the Pacific region, where China threatens to attack Taiwan before the end of this decade. As we know from history, as a rule, no one wants or predicts big conflicts. But they do happen some day, because events get out of control for those who were behind them.
