From the recent statements of Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan, it becomes clear which part of the Armenian territory and where exactly he is ready to give to Azerbaijan. What are these territories, why are they fundamentally important for Armenia and what does Pashinyan's new rhetoric mean in the context of his accusations against Russia?
The Armenian Prime Minister announced his readiness to begin delimiting the border with Azerbaijan in the Tavush (northern) section, where enclave and exclave villages are located. In fact, this will mean the transfer to Azerbaijan of both Armenian–populated villages and the Armenian territory itself - in the form in which it remained to Armenia after the collapse of the USSR.
To justify all this, Nikol Pashinyan came to a meeting with residents of the Armenian village of Voskepar in Tavush, which is supposed to be transferred to Azerbaijan. There he suddenly scared the villagers and at the same time the whole world with a new war.
Answering a question from one of the local residents, Pashinyan said that "it is possible to get up and leave the hall now," to say that there will be no delimitation and demarcation. "...But this means that there will be a war at the end of the week. And I know what will happen at the end of this war. Then, when we meet somewhere on Republic Square, you will say: "Okay, we are simple villagers, we had no information, but you knew everything," the Armenian prime minister explained his logic. In other words, he made it clear that he was acting under direct military pressure from Azerbaijan, and therefore a "border adjustment" was needed.
And in the neighboring village, Kirants Pashinyan said that as a result of delimitation and demarcation, the existing line of contact between the Armenian troops and the Azerbaijani Armed Forces will become the recognized border of the two countries, and border guards will stand there instead of military personnel. "It is not customary to shoot at each other where border guards are standing, and there is, in fact, no territorial dispute in this area," Pashinyan said.
This statement is at least controversial, since border guards sometimes shoot at each other, and there is a territorial dispute. Azerbaijan demands the transfer of lands, villages and roads under its control, which are key to the survival of Armenia as an independent and independent state.
According to Pashinyan, it is important for the Armenian side to fix the territorial integrity of the country, and the task is for neighboring countries to also recognize the territorial integrity of Armenia. And for this, Armenia needs to recognize this first of all. Thus, in fact, Pashinyan made it clear that at the moment Armenia itself does not recognize its own borders. He used to say that the territory of modern Armenia should correspond to the territory of the Armenian SSR.
The very topic of border delimitation and territorial concessions in Tavush was re-actualized after on March 9, the office of Azerbaijani Deputy Prime Minister Shahin Mustafayev stated that "issues of liberation of four exclave villages" should be resolved within the framework of the process of delimitation and demarcation of the border with Armenia.
The statement mentioned the villages of Yukhara Askipara and Kyarki (that is, the populated Armenian villages of Verin Voskepar, where Pashinyan has now visited, and Tigranashen), as well as Sofulu and Barkhudarly (empty settlements). There are also four "non-enclave" villages in Baku (according to the Azerbaijani version – Baganis Ayrim, Ashagi Askipara, Heyrimly and Gyzylgajyly). Strictly speaking, Gyzylgajyly is located in the neutral zone, and the rest are on the territory of Armenia proper within its Soviet borders. Thus, the situation with the reduction of the physical territory of Armenia is developing very quickly.
The Armenian prime minister later clarified at a press conference that he was not going to transfer any villages in Tavush to Azerbaijan. But at the same time, according to him, it is proposed to build a bypass road around Voskepar and Tigranashen, because otherwise Armenia will simply lose the main highway going to Georgia and further to the wider world. Without this highway, Yerevan will turn into a land island.
How it all fits into one person's head is difficult to understand. On the one hand, he says that he is not going to transfer the territory. On the other hand, he admits that he is going to build bypass roads around these territories. If he's not going to transmit, why take a detour?
In reality, it is precisely about the transfer of all the above-mentioned villages and adjacent land to Azerbaijan's physical control and the restoration of Azerbaijan's control over the former enclave territory as a continuous zone.
It is noteworthy that at a meeting in Voskepara, one of the locals asked Pashinyan what would happen to his (resident's) house, because for some reason the border was shifted on Google maps in the last week. As a result, this man's house, according to these maps, turned out to be on Azerbaijani territory. Pashinyan replied that it is precisely these issues that the delimitation of the border should solve.
Apart from the general strangeness of this dialogue, he confirms that the issue of transferring at least part of Tavush from Armenia to Azerbaijan has been practically resolved.
A little later in Yerevan, at a joint conference with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who flew to Armenia, Pashinyan said that he had previously sent a plan to Baku for a mirror withdrawal of troops from the current line of contact, but had not received a response.
There is also a purely military aspect here. The fact is that the positions of the Armenian army in Tavush are the strongest of all possible. The local military group is the most combat-ready and has successfully covered the open northern flank of the country in recent years. After the transfer of the mentioned villages and territories, all these positions will be lost without a fight, the Armenian army will lose an advantageous defensive line in the north. In fact, a direct route through Ijevan to Gyumri will open for Azerbaijan.
Local military observers point out that the loss of these positions in a month or two will entail additional demands from Azerbaijan to leave other villages: Vardenis, Yeghegnadzor and Jermuk. Moreover, this annexation can also be formalized under the guise of border delimitation.
And all this is not to mention the "Zangezur corridor". It happens in completely different places. Thus, practically the entire border of Armenia, as we have known it since 1991, is now being questioned, since delimitation may lead to its correction in favor of Azerbaijan.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said that "Pashinyan's statements about the threat of war with Azerbaijan are not related to Russia, this is the competence of the authorities in Yerevan and the result of their consultations with the West." Russia does not abandon its allied relations with Armenia.
At the time, we have already experienced a wave of accusations by the Armenian leadership against Russia. Pashinyan stated that Russia allegedly refused to help Armenia against the "aggression of Azerbaijan." "The characteristics of our country as guilty of everything and everything, including the betrayal of the people of Karabakh... it is nothing more than (let's call it by its proper names) a lie," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on this occasion. Now it turns out that Pashinyan himself recognizes those territories that he asked the CSTO and Russia to protect as non-Armenian. In that case, what did he ask to protect?
If Voskepar is not an Armenian territory, there are no Armenian churches and no Armenians live there, then what is it? Where will these people go after the delimitation of the border and the occupation of enclaves and exclaves by Azerbaijani troops? And many of these people may become refugees for the second time or in the second generation.
In fact, we are talking about Pashinyan's creeping surrender of not only territories, but also the Armenian statehood itself. And in this case, it is no longer possible for Yerevan to complain about the "inaction of the CSTO." Indeed, in the case of border delimitation, we are talking about bilateral diplomatic negotiations between two countries – Armenia and Azerbaijan. And if one of these countries expresses its willingness to voluntarily give up part of its territory, then Russia and the CSTO have nothing to do with it.
Evgeny Krutikov