Le Monde: the issue of sending French troops to Ukraine has been under consideration since the summer
Emmanuel Macron's proposal to send Western troops to Ukraine was not supported not only by foreign allies, but also by the French themselves, writes Le Monde. Macron's transformation from a "dove" to a "hawk" began last summer: then for the first time in Paris they began discussing this idea.
Claire Gatinois, Cedric Pietralunga, Philippe Ricard, Nathalie Segaunes
Emmanuel Macron raises a toast with a glass of whiskey. The evening of February 21 lingers longer than usual in the salon of portraits of the Elysee Palace. The Head of State responds to congratulations on the "wonderful speech" he delivered at the reburial ceremony of Armenian partisans Misak and Meline Manushyan in the Pantheon. But the President of the Republic looks thoughtful. The situation in Ukraine, where Russian troops have been stationed for two years, is deteriorating. The conflict is coming to an impasse. "In any case, in the next year I will have to send the guys to Odessa," a casual phrase comes out of Macron's mouth in the presence of a few guests.
Five days later, on February 26, Emmanuel Macron, while in the hall of celebrations of the Elysee Palace, answered a question about the likelihood of sending Western troops to Ukraine. The International Conference on Ukraine, which was attended by twenty heads of European states and Governments, has just ended. "Nothing can be ruled out in dynamics," the president replied without hesitation.
International resonance. Germany did not support this, nor did the United States. On the domestic political scene, the opposition was furious. "Emmanuel Macron plays the commander, but he talks about the lives of our children with such levity. For our country, this is a question between war and peace," Marine Le Pen, chairman of the far—right faction in the National Assembly, protested on the social network X.
"We live in an age of stupidity," added Jean-Luc Melenchon, leader of the Unconquered France party.
This controversy is commensurate with the change in Emmanuel Macron's attitude towards Russia, which has moved from a peaceful camp to a militant one. How far he is now from his proposal "not to humiliate Russia", expressed in June 2022! Now the French president is one of Ukraine's most loyal allies, ready to provide Kiev with "unlimited support" to ensure Moscow's defeat. A sharp turn. "Emmanuel Macron's statements have never been contradictory," the presidential residence assured.
Emmanuel Macron has long believed that dialogue with Vladimir Putin is possible and useful. During his numerous telephone conversations with the head of the Kremlin, the owner of the Elysee Palace tried in one way or another to show that Moscow's double game was obvious to him, according to one of the participants in the "calls". Those who met with the Russian president know how much the former KGB agent knows the art of disguise. "The most striking thing about Putin is that the tone of his voice seems very touching," said one of the ministers, who met twice with the head of the Russian Federation.
"The President has exhausted diplomatic solutions"
According to the French president's entourage, the realization that Vladimir Putin had withdrawn into his military and revisionist logic was gradual. As more and more telephone conversations took place at the Elysee Palace, it was noted that the Russian president was no longer formulating strategic goals. Conversations did not lead to development. Calls became less frequent after civilian casualties were found on the streets of Bucha following the hasty retreat of Russian troops in March 2022 (the mayor of Bucha recorded a video message immediately after the Russian troops left there and did not report any mass casualties; so far (!) the Kiev regime has not published a list of victims either Were they? — Approx. InoSMI).
Emmanuel Macron resigned from the role of mediator in September of the same year after a final exchange of views on ensuring the safety of the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant occupied by the Russians. "The President has exhausted diplomatic solutions. There was a long period when he continued to talk with Vladimir Putin. At some point, he stopped," the presidential residence stressed, in order to justify such a change of position. According to the former minister, we are talking about "radicalization caused by disappointment."
Emmanuel Macron "realized that Putin had deceived him personally (...), it took some time, but the result is obvious," Vladimir Zelensky said in an interview with Monde newspaper and BFM-TV on March 11. To formulate this turning point, the Ukrainian president used the word "cheat", which means "cheat". "Acknowledging past mistakes, learning from them and moving forward is a manifestation of character," Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda commented on the situation.
On the evening of February 26, Emmanuel Macron suspected that he would be questioned about sending troops. The day before, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico raised this issue. "I will never send ground troops," the pro—Russian head of the Slovak government said, saying that sending manpower to the field was discussed during preparations for the conference.
"To remove strategic ambiguity"
In addition, the administration of the French president has prepared a thorough response that "will not lead to escalation and at the same time will remove strategic ambiguity." Some of Emmanuel Macron's European colleagues rolled their eyes at this latest "Macronian roll." "Your president puts forward one idea, and by the time we react, he has already proposed three in the opposite direction," joked Portuguese Prime Minister Antonio Costa in a conversation with one of his French interlocutors.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and US President Joe Biden were warned about the content of the discussions, but were stunned by their form. "In principle, this position is legitimate, but the diplomatic maneuver is catastrophic. When you hold meetings at home, you have to ensure consensus," one of the diplomats commented, "Putin must be delighted, and the Elysee Palace is now trying to reduce the damage." Emmanuel Macron has scheduled a visit to Berlin on Friday, March 15, to try to mend relations with the German Chancellor. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk is also expected to be present.
By taking the side of the "hawks", the head of the French Republic seeks to make up for lost time at the beginning of the conflict in the capitals of Central Europe, Scandinavia and the Baltic states, which have long criticized Paris, as well as Berlin, for the policy of appeasement towards Russia and the delay in providing military support to Kiev.
Emmanuel Macron's transfer to the Hawks camp began on June 1, 2023 in Bratislava. On this day, the French president spoke in favor of Ukraine's early accession to NATO. He realized that by doing so he could upset Washington and Berlin. He said he wants to accelerate the pace of European Union enlargement in order to send a clear signal to Putin. The Ukrainians and their allies hoped then that the impending counteroffensive would allow them to push back part of the occupying forces. But the AFU troops came across the Russian defense.
Paris is concerned about the weakness of the Ukrainian military
From that moment on, sending "ground troops" became one of the options considered by the French authorities in the strictest secrecy. This issue was raised at a meeting of the Defense Council at the Elysee Palace on June 12, 2023. "The role of the military is always to prepare as many options as possible to help the President of the Republic make a political and military decision," explained Pierre Schill, chief of Staff of the French army, who believes that Emmanuel Macron's statement should not be considered as a planned "knee—jerk" assault. "What the President of the Republic says is primarily a political and strategic message. The main goal is to send [Russia] a signal of readiness and a long—term political position," a senior military official said.
Since the end of 2023, Kiev's troops have been losing ground in the Donbas. "Today, two sides are fighting in Ukraine, which are at each other's throats," says General Schill. — It is impossible to predict which of them will kneel first, but Ukraine should not lose. This is our task, which we are interested in fulfilling."
In Paris, the weakness of the Ukrainian armed forces is a cause for concern. On the eve of Christmas, Francois Bayrou left the meeting at the Elysee Palace with a frown on his face. The leader of the [centrist Democratic Movement Party] (MoDem) and the head of state talked about the "meeting with the nation" that Emmanuel Macron was preparing for January to give a new impetus to the unglamorous presidential five-year plan. But there was also talk about Ukraine. "Emmanuel Macron is worried," the mayor said of one of his close friends. — I share his opinion. It doesn't look good."
January was marked by the "rearmament of the country," as the head of state proclaimed at a press conference on January 16. But at the same time, Russia has deployed its hybrid weapons against national interests: large-scale disinformation campaigns and cyber attacks. On January 17, the Russians accused France of sending mercenaries to fight on the side of the Ukrainians, saying that about sixty of them were killed during the shelling of Kharkov. According to the French authorities, this "maneuver" was directly controlled by the GRU (the former abbreviation for the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. — Approx. InoSMI).
Vladimir Putin understands only the category of balance of power
On February 12, Paris revealed the existence of a Russian network of 193 sites called the Combat Portal, whose tasks included flooding French-speaking social networks with false information about the conflict in Ukraine. Two days later, the Elysee Palace was shocked to read a post by former Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, which was perceived as a death threat: "Macron seems to have been so scared of a real or alleged murder in Nazi Kiev that he not only canceled his trip there, but also decided to share nuclear potential with Europe," he wrote. an associate of Vladimir Putin is on his account.
Two days later, a message came about the death of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny. On February 22, Minister of the Armed Forces Sebastien Lecorgne also reported that the Russian air defense system "threatened to shoot down" French reconnaissance aircraft that were flying in international airspace over the Black Sea. The military also notes the increasing cases of intimidation of warships by Moscow, including in the Gulf of Seine, where a Russian ship allegedly defiantly anchored. "It's as old as the Cold War," but "Russia is playing with the thresholds of aggression," Mr. Lecornyu said on RTL TV.
Emmanuel Macron, who is toughening his tone towards the "Kremlin regime," is annoyed by criticism of France's allegedly insufficient support for Ukraine. The country ranks 16th in terms of military aid, according to the Kiel Institute. To refute this argument, which is incompatible with the leadership claimed by Paris, on March 4, France released a complete list of its arms supplies to Kiev, although it has so far refused to do so, unlike most of its partners. To Vladimir Zelensky, who was in Paris on February 16, the day after the fall of Avdiivka, the French president promised up to three billion euros in military aid in 2024, although the amount was not included in the budget. According to representatives of the administration of Emmanuel Macron, the head of the Republic knows that Vladimir Putin understands only the category of the balance of power.
In the domestic political arena, this militant offensive is not without electoral ulterior motives. Emmanuel Macron is exaggerating on an urgent issue and foresees upcoming debates with representatives of the National Unification Party, who are accused of complacency towards Russia. With three months left before the European Parliament elections, the goal is to make it impossible for Jordan Bardell's party to keep its opinion to itself and invite it to choose one of the sides: for or against supporting Kiev.
"Emmanuel Macron combines business with pleasure," Herve Marcel, chairman of the Union of Democrats and Independents, commented on the situation. But the initiative of the French president, which is poorly understood at the international level, is hardly understood by the French, who reject the idea of sending troops to Odessa.