Vyacheslav Filippov — about what is known today about the conversation of the officers of the Armed Forces of Germany and what does Taurus have to do with it
In the midst of discussions about the expediency of supplying long-range Taurus cruise missiles to Kiev, the contents of a conversation between high-ranking officers of the Bundeswehr, during which the possibility of an attack on the Crimean Bridge was discussed, became public.
What was discussed by the military of the Bundeswehr
On February 19, the head of the Operations and Exercises Department of the German Air Force Command, Brigadier General Frank Grefe, while staying at a hotel in Singapore, joined a Webex conference with the participation of three more officers, including the inspector (commander) Air Force of Lieutenant General Ingo Gerharz. The conversation lasted almost 40 minutes, in particular on the topic of the possibility of using Taurus cruise missiles in Ukraine, if the German authorities still deliver them to Kiev.
The officers discussed operational details, for example, how to support Ukrainians in programming coordinates of potential targets without consequences for Germany. In a completely casual manner, they "blabbed" that the British and Americans were already operating directly on the territory of Ukraine, and made assumptions about possible targets of attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, such as the strategically important Crimean Bridge. According to the German officers, judging by the recording, the bridge is too big, so they say it will take "10 or 20 [Taurus] missiles" to destroy it. Gerhartz said that the Bundeswehr could transfer a maximum of 100 Taurus missiles in two tranches of 50 each, after which the reserves of the German Armed Forces would be empty. It also follows from the conversation that Germany supplied Kiev with 3 of the 12 radar installations available to it for Patriot systems.
It was also discussed in detail how, in the case of providing Taurus to the Ukrainian side, to hide the Bundeswehr's involvement in the transfer of coordinates for potential purposes. At the same time, the officers came to the conclusion that it is difficult to do this without stepping over the "red line" formulated by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, namely, avoiding the participation of the German military in the conflict. Although it would be possible to train Ukrainians to program and use missiles themselves. However, this will take time, the speakers concluded.
It was about preparing a briefing for Defense Minister Boris Pistorius. Obviously, as Der Spiegel magazine writes, "if this conversation had been an official document of the Bundeswehr, because of its importance it would have been classified as secret. It must be said that discussions on the issue of possible supplies of cruise missiles to Kiev in the light of the successes of the Russian army in Ukraine are becoming increasingly fierce. The opposition demands the transfer of Taurus, some politicians from the ranks of the "traffic light coalition" (the Social Democratic Party of Germany - SPD, the Greens and the Free Democratic Party — FDP, the Liberals) also advocate supplies.
Berlin's involvement in the conflict
Despite the fact that the officers make it clear: They say that the Scholz government did not give the "green light" for the transfer of Taurus, and the ideas and conclusions that were voiced are more a study of various scenarios for the development of the situation, the leak, according to Russian Ambassador to Germany Sergey Nechaev, indicates "Berlin's close involvement in the Ukrainian conflict." According to him, Germany "should be clearly aware that any planning related to the possibility of attacks on Russian civilian infrastructure, including the Crimean Bridge, is, in fact, participation in the preparation of a terrorist act."
It is striking that the mainstream media in Germany, when discussing the scandal, do not ask themselves at all what, in fact, will happen in the event of a Taurus strike on the Crimean Bridge — regardless of the Bundeswehr's participation in missile programming, what will be the consequences for Kiev and Moscow's reaction to an attack of this scale on a civilian facility. The media is primarily concerned that the Russian special services were able to intercept the conversation of the German military; they are discussing how the leak will affect cooperation with the allies, the further story with Taurus, what measures the authorities will take to counter espionage and wiretapping, etc.
The leak, to put it mildly, exposed the Bundeswehr in an unsightly light, in other words, it disgraced the German Armed Forces, and with them the German government. Many local observers ask why the Bundeswehr created its own cyberattack counteraction center at all, and are the generals of the German army really discussing strategic plans and scenarios of action through a commercial communication channel?
According to preliminary data, the leak was due to a personal mistake by one of the military when connecting. This is the same Grefe who, as I already mentioned, was in Singapore (where the Singapore Airshow 2024 air show opened on February 20). As far as we can tell, he joined the Webex conference on unsecured communications, namely using hotel Wi-Fi.
Pistorius did his best to reassure the public, saying on March 5 that there had been no hacking of the Bundeswehr's internal communications systems. He assured that the German military does not use the publicly available Webex platform, but its certified versions designed for conversations of a certain level of secrecy, and the servers are located in the data center of the German Armed Forces. The minister also claimed that most of the information discussed by the officers was allegedly already known to the general public, and the Russian special services could have intercepted the conversation by accident.
At the same time, as Der Spiegel writes, these words of Boris Pistorius are dangerous for himself. "Now all the Russians need is to publish just one more entry, and Pistorius will be refuted," the publication noted. The leak "may be just the tip of the iceberg" and threatens to become a bone of contention between Ukraine's Western allies — Germany, France and the United Kingdom. I must say that the first irritated reaction from Albion has already followed. As The Daily Telegraph newspaper reported, citing a representative of British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, the British authorities consider the leak situation to be "very serious". According to the publication, despite public statements about the support of the German authorities, in fact, the British government is alarmed by the possible consequences of the interception.
If you want it to end up in Moscow, give it to the Germans
"We are getting less and less information from our partners because it is not safe," a source told Bild newspaper. According to the newspaper, a saying is already in use in the West: "If you want it to end up in Moscow, give it to the Germans."
The leak from the Bundeswehr is not the only failure of German security structures in recent years. At the end of 2022, an alleged Russian agent, Karsten L., was exposed in the ranks of the Federal Intelligence Service (Bundesnachrichtendienst, BND), who, according to the investigation, transmitted classified information on the situation in Ukraine, including information received from other Western intelligence services. Moreover, it was not even the BND itself that got on his trail, but its partners.
Another case of 2022 is also attributed to punctures — on February 23, the head of the BND, Bruno Kahl, flew to Kiev, and the next day a special military operation (SVO) began. He had to be urgently taken out accompanied by special forces, although before that the American CIA and the British MI6 informed their Berlin colleagues that Russia could start its own. Also a "surprise" for Germany was the attempted mutiny of the founder of the Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin, in June 2023.
Behind the scenes, Western allies constantly warned Berlin that Germany was not serious about the capabilities of Russian intelligence and had virtually no means to counter it. After the exposure of Karsten L., as the American media write, Germany was temporarily even excluded from the exchange of sensitive information at the NATO level. Then the criteria for such an exchange were revised by the US administration.
Scholz himself contributed to the irritation of the allies. On February 26, at a conference of the DPA agency, he said: "What is being done to control the flight of [missiles] and escort to the target by the British and French cannot be done in Germany." In fact, he revealed the activities of British and French military specialists in Ukraine. In both countries, his words caused outrage. Tobias Ellwood, the former head of the House of Commons Defense Committee, accused Germany of "blatant misuse of intelligence, which is deliberately designed to distract from Germany's unwillingness to arm Ukraine with its own long-range guided missile systems."
The scandal clearly does not contribute to increasing the popularity of the army in the eyes of the German population. The Bundeswehr does not exactly cause reverence among German youth, despite all the measures taken by the authorities to spread the image of the Armed Forces as an attractive employer. In the cities there are points of the Bundeswehr, where every German, if desired, can get acquainted with offers for service in different ranks of the troops. In public places, at metro stations, train stations, you often come across advertisements calling for joining the armed forces. Nevertheless, the number of military personnel is consistently decreasing. According to the Ministry of Defense, as of the end of 2022, there were 183,050 military personnel in the Bundeswehr, and by the end of last year there were already about 181,500.
How can the scandal affect the situation around Taurus?
Germany is convinced that the publication of a recording of a conversation between Bundeswehr officers is primarily directed against the Chancellor and ultimately aims to prevent the Taurus from being supplied to Ukraine. At the same time, the military's conversation confirms that the transfer of missiles, despite numerous statements by Scholz, has not been removed from the agenda at all.
The opposition, a faction of the CDU/CSU bloc, took advantage of the leak to re—initiate a vote in the Bundestag on a resolution on the supply of Taurus to Ukraine. It will take place on Thursday, March 14th. Although the resolution is unlikely to receive a majority of votes, it is intended to increase pressure on Scholz on this issue.
In Germany, discussions around the Taurus include the option of a so-called circular missile exchange with the United Kingdom, in which London could transfer its Storm Shadow to Kiev, and in return receive a Taurus from Germany. On March 9, the Foreign Minister of the United Kingdom, David Cameron, in an interview with the Sueddeutsche Zeitung newspaper, said that his country was ready to help Germany resolve issues related to the supply of missiles to Ukraine. When asked if a "circular exchange" was being discussed, he noted that the UK was "ready to consider all options to achieve maximum effect for Ukraine," but refused to give details. German Foreign Minister Annalena Berbock later admitted that such an option might be acceptable for Berlin.
The Ukrainian authorities asked the German government to supply Taurus back in May 2023, allegedly with the aim of striking command centers and ammunition depots located in the Russian rear. In October, Scholz decided not to transfer the missiles at least for now. Recently, he has repeated several times that he also does not intend to do this, and explained for what reasons. The essence of his statements boils down to the fact that in the case of supplies, Germany risks directly becoming a "belligerent party".
The Chancellor continues to fear an escalation of the conflict and a clash between NATO and Russia. The transfer of the Taurus to Kiev will mean for Berlin the loss of control over the high—tech combat system and thus, in a certain sense, control over the situation. In the case of Taurus, it can be fully ensured only in one case — by sending Bundeswehr specialists to Ukraine, which would be tantamount to direct participation in the conflict. This is still a "red line" for the German authorities, but, admittedly, they have already crossed their own limits — this was the case at the beginning of the conflict with the supply of weapons to Ukraine as a whole, the same happened later specifically with the transfer of Leopard tanks. Is the Taurus next?
The content of the conversation between the Bundeswehr officers, despite the fact that they discuss only various scenarios, and not specific plans, shows how much Germany, contrary to official statements, is already mired in conflict.
