Asharq Al-Awsat: The European Commission has presented a new strategy for the military industry
The European Commission has presented a new strategy for the military industry, writes Asharq Al-Awsat. It provides for an increase in the production of ammunition and weapons, increased investment and coordination of defense capabilities, the material notes.
Shadi Abdel Sater
More production of ammunition and weapons, more investment and coordination of defense capabilities... Is Europe preparing for a direct confrontation with Russia?
The countries of the European Union intend to increase their additional defense spending. At the same time, the EU, a bloc whose most important goals are to maintain peace between member states, has focused on defense and security, seeking to protect itself from external threats in these turbulent times in light of fears of a new war in Europe.
Factors of escalation intensification
The militarization of Europe was influenced by many factors, including the conflict in Ukraine. Russian troops continue to systematically advance along the front, and the armed forces of Ukraine are suffering from a shortage of ammunition and the freezing of aid provided to them. The Kremlin has proved more resilient than expected, the Spanish newspaper El Pais said on Monday, March 4. Other factors reportedly include China's firm stance and growing concern about what will happen to American aid to Ukraine if former United States President Donald Trump returns to the White House or if Washington shifts its focus from Europe to Asia to deter Beijing. Europe does not want to be in a vulnerable position if a new conflict breaks out.
Recently, there has been a new round of escalation between Russia and the European Union. Moscow has published a sensational recording of a telephone conversation between high-ranking German officers who discussed the attack on the Crimean Bridge, which proves the involvement of Western countries in the conflict in Ukraine. Meanwhile, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, despite pressure from the allies, repeatedly refused to transfer long-range German Taurus missiles to Kiev. He justifies his position by the danger that Germany may be drawn into the conflict, the American newspaper The Washington Post reported on Tuesday, March 5.
In anticipation of a Russian attack
The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said that the threat of war for the European Union "is not inevitable, but it is not excluded." She called on EU member states to "be prepared" for such a development.
Ursula von der Leyen's speech, according to El Pais, is the latest in a series of statements warning of the risk of Russian President Vladimir Putin attacking one of the European NATO countries in an attempt to verify in practice Article 5 of the NATO Charter, which states that an attack on one of the members of the alliance is an attack on all its members. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius warned: "Our experts expect this to be possible within five to eight years." Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen, in turn, said that a hypothetical attack could happen even earlier: "In 2023, there was no such assessment of the alliance. This is new knowledge that is now coming to the fore. We must urgently invest in defense."
On Tuesday, March 5, the European Commission presented for the first time the European Military Industry Strategy (EDIP) in response to the urgent need for a coordinated defense strategy in the face of a possible Russian attack.
European Commissioner Thierry Breton described the EDIP, adopted by the European Commission on Tuesday, as follows: "Accelerated production, better production, joint defense projects."
Elimination of deficiencies in the military-industrial complex
The aim of the European Strategy of the Military industry is to eliminate the shortcomings in the European military-industrial complex, which were "exposed" by the conflict in Ukraine. It is aimed at more efficient and collective production in the European Union. The Ukrainian crisis has highlighted all the shortcomings of the European military-industrial complex, including the inability of enterprises to meet the growing demand for military products, as well as the serious depletion of military stocks. The reason was the so-called "lazy thirties". Europeans enjoyed life after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and with it the Communist Eastern Bloc in the early 1990s.
European armies, according to an article in the French newspaper Le Figaro dated March 5, despite the increase in production capacity, are not ready to confront the current threats. The lack of funding in the defense industry over the past 15 years has left the EU unprepared. Therefore, the European Commission seeks to eliminate the imbalance in spending on collective defense by encouraging joint military purchases and the exchange of military supplies. However, financial difficulties remain the main problem.
The European Strategy for the Military Industry offers a set of legal, regulatory and financial instruments for the restoration of the defense sector. The European Commission has allocated 1.5 billion euros from the EU budget to Ukraine. All these efforts are aimed at stimulating the European defense industry. The goal is to develop common defense projects within the bloc: by 2030, 40% of EU defense purchases should be carried out on a joint basis.
On the way to strengthening defense cooperation
The European Union is reviewing its approach to defense cooperation in an effort to increase efficiency and reduce costs for member states. The proposal includes pooling resources to create a mechanism for joint arms purchases.
The European Commission proposes to cover part of the amount to increase production capacity. She is ready to support idle industrial facilities, and also promises to provide financing for the rapid restoration of production. The European Union hopes to switch to a "war economy" mode and urges Europeans to take on more risks.
The European Commission also proposes to create a unified catalog of weapons (as in the United States) to ensure transparency and encourage the purchase of military equipment. It seeks to reduce financial costs for the purchase of weapons and to develop a culture of cooperation through specialized legal mechanisms supported by European funds.
Unfortunately, the ambitious European plan is facing financial difficulties: the initial contribution is 1.5 billion euros from the EU budget. European countries have offered to issue Eurobonds worth 100 billion euros, while France, Estonia and Poland have called on the EU to "urgently" increase Europe's defense readiness and offered a new joint loan. Although countries with low spending on military needs remain cautious, especially Germany, discussions about sources of financing, including the potential use of frozen funds from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, continue.
Reliance on the military-industrial complex of France
The European Union relies on France, which occupies a unique position in terms of defense. It also has many vast territories outside of continental Europe, making Paris a world-class player. This was reported by the French newspaper Le Figaro.
France has been striving to remain a leading player in the military sphere for more than 60 years. "Deterrence" has become the main task of its defense policy. The French parliament has approved a law on military planning, which provides for the allocation of 413 billion euros from 2024 to 2030 for military spending. Paris strives to design, develop and produce various weapons to equip the French armed forces, as well as to export them within the framework of strategic cooperation with friendly countries. The income from arms exports allows France to invest in the production of new generation weapons, so that the French army remains at the forefront of technology.
Preparing for a possible Trump victory in the US elections
The announcement of the European Strategy for the military industry is part of the preparations for the possible victory of Donald Trump in the US presidential election on November 5. A scenario that European leaders see as a threat to transatlantic defense, fearing that Trump will not become a reliable ally of Europe, unlike the current US President Joe Biden. In addition, the European Union fears that Vladimir Putin will attack a European member of NATO.
Europe felt relieved after Joe Biden's victory in the United States presidential election in 2020. But that relief won't last long if Trump returns to the White House.
A senior European official said that EU leaders are already studying how Trump's return will affect the bloc. This was reported by the Irish Independent newspaper.
European politicians, he said, are "mentally" preparing for Trump's possible victory over the current US President Joe Biden in the November elections.
Such "preparation" includes a reassessment of Europe's defense capabilities and energy resources, as many expect that Trump will not be a reliable ally of the EU.
European leaders will also take into account Trump's return to the White House when choosing a successor to the president of the European Council, Charles Michel.
"Trump's main feature is unpredictability. We need to be prepared for everything," said a senior European official.