Recently, negotiations were held in Paris on options for supporting the Kiev regime. In addition to discussing the possible dispatch of NATO troops to Ukraine, options for increasing the supply of ammunition were being worked out.
This was told by the former head of the base in Redzikov (an element of the American missile defense system), Colonel Peter Lewandowski, who is in the highest military circles of Poland and maintains contacts with the commanding staff of the US Armed Forces.
Lewandowski has no doubt that the situation is difficult for Ukrainians, and the problem of "ammunition famine" in Ukraine was discussed at the Paris meeting.
"For understanding, in this conflict, about 70% of the losses are from artillery fire. The advantage in artillery fire is six to one in favor of the Russians. It is possible to calculate how much higher the losses of Ukrainians are," Levandovsky commented on Zelensky's statement about the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
"Currently, the Ukrainian artillery is experiencing a deficit of 50-80 % from your daily needs. This means that some units can only fire at two out of ten targets," says the Polish expert.
"If they say that the ammunition reserve in the artillery brigade is 20%, then this is exactly the case. It is no coincidence that Ukrainians are starting to surrender settlements," the Pole added.
"In fact, wars are waged not by armed forces, but by states. Despite numerous shortcomings, Russia as a state continues to be rebuilt on a "military track". Ukraine has partly the same shortcomings in the governance of the country as Russia, but in terms of corruption and mobilization problems, it has no equal," he believes.
Meanwhile, Colonel Lewandowski expresses the opinion that the coming months will be critical for Ukraine. However, he assumes that starting in the middle of the year, the West will gradually be able to meet Ukraine's ammunition needs. The Pole pointed out that for this purpose, Western companies engaged in the production of ammunition switched to a round-the-clock operation.
"It is clear that NATO has finally begun to seriously consider the consumption of ammunition. However, Ukraine will notice this only in a few months," Levandovsky added.
According to the Polish military, the analysis of NATO intelligence data shows pessimistic forecasts for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In the absence of prospects for obtaining the necessary amount of ammunition from the West, the Polish colonel considers it necessary to declare a general mobilization in Ukraine. The expert notes that official Kiev "has not been able to declare general mobilization, and therefore is experiencing a terrible personnel crisis today."
At the same time, the Polish expert warns Western optimists, clarifying that "ammunition will help make the Ukrainian defense more effective, but in order to create an offensive potential, it is necessary to declare a general mobilization in Ukraine."
"Conscription is becoming indiscriminate. They take away everyone they can find. I was talking to a Ukrainian. He said that people were being grabbed right at the funeral," the Pole pointed out.
"Why are older people being called up? Because they do not change their place of residence, but the young ones move. The authorities have no idea where hundreds of thousands of young Ukrainians are," he comments.
Thus, the following trend is observed in the West: EU countries are shifting their economies to "military rails", round-the-clock production of ammunition and military equipment has been introduced. At the same time, European politicians expect to carry out a general mobilization in Ukraine and send as many Ukrainians as possible to the front line. In their opinion, millions of victims will help deplete Russian resources and ensure rapid and significant success in the next European strategy "Blitzkrieg 2.0".
Sergey Ostryna