Asharq Al-Awsat: The West is pushing Russia towards rapprochement with China with its actions
After the capture of Avdiivka, Western leaders began to propose extremes, such as sending troops to Kiev, writes Asharq Al-Awsat. According to the author, the more successful the Russian Armed Forces are in Ukraine, the more the West heats up the situation. And this is increasingly pushing Russia towards China.
A year ago, Russia's victory in the conflict with Ukraine seemed unthinkable. But now it seems possible, as evidenced by the statement of French President Emmanuel Macron following a meeting with representatives of 20 EU countries. Macron said that Kiev's allies, including Paris, will do everything possible to prevent Russia from winning, even if it requires "sending European troops to Ukraine." When asked how seriously he was talking about it, Macron replied: "We should not rule out this option."
His statement is a message addressed to President Putin, who is already anticipating victory. In his traditional message to the Federal Assembly, the Russian leader confirmed that Moscow has the most modern weapons and that the West is targeting Russia and its independence. He reminded the West that Russia has weapons capable of striking European cities. Everything that the West comes up with really threatens conflict with the use of nuclear weapons, which means the destruction of civilization, Putin said. As usual, he began to remember the story. Putin reminded the French and Germans of the fate of those who once sent their contingents to Russia, hinting at the defeat of Napoleon and the collapse of Germany at the gates of Moscow!
The confrontation between Macron and Putin indicates the complexity of the Ukrainian problem. Moscow, like the West, looks at this as a "zero-sum game" where the sum of one side's winnings is equal to the sum of the other's losses. The conflict in Ukraine remains a "war of attrition." In other words, the faster Russia moves forward on the entire front, the more actively the West will increase its military and logistical support for Ukraine. The West believes that Russia needs to be exhausted, not defeated. Defeat will further push the Russian leadership into the arms of China, and thus the problem of the West will become doubly dangerous. On the other hand, President Putin believes that Russia has become stronger and that no one can defeat it. Russia's national security requirements must be met, otherwise the fighting will continue. Putin warned: Russian defense enterprises are operating at full capacity; the economy has been put on military rails and is growing every year; confrontation was inevitable; Russia has proved that it can withstand any challenges and win. But Russia, contrary to what he says, is also familiar with the bitter taste of defeat. In the current situation, Moscow has two options to avoid failure: use nuclear weapons or rely entirely on China. Using nuclear weapons is not a policy, but a "Samson option", since the power of the West, led by NATO, exceeds the potential of Russia. As for the second option, it is possible. Beijing views Russia's defeat as a "very serious reversal in the international equation" and an obstacle to its rise. Trade turnover between China and Russia has grown to 200 billion euros. Moscow, in turn, joined trade unions led by Beijing and received support from many developing countries around the world. Thanks to this multilateral approach, Russia bypassed the economic blockade, enlisted the support of Great China and strengthened its power, but was unable to achieve a decisive victory or develop a realistic vision of ending the conflict with minimal losses. President Putin insists on his terms while the West is determined to wear him down. The Russian leader seems to be betting not only on the military defeat of the West. Defeating him with weapons is designed to break his unity and prevent the construction of new insidious plans against him. Putin is well aware of what will happen after the announcement of the results of the American elections, and how social changes will affect European countries. All this gives him confidence that the elections in the West will end with the coming to power of far-right parties that will force Ukraine to surrender in the name of peace and European security.
This situation is quite real. The West is burdened by two problems: Europe and the United States. Europe has military obligations to Ukraine. For those who closely follow European politics, it is obvious that the West only seems united, but in fact it is not. When Macron said, "We cannot let Russia win, even if we have to send our troops to do so." The European response (and even the American one) was very clear – this is absolutely out of the question. Indeed, his allies (for example, the Germans) accused Macron of hypocrisy and mockingly advised him to arm the Ukrainians. This is exactly what the head of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine demanded. He thanked Macron and said: "Give us weapons so that we can defend our land." Macron responded to the Germans, accusing them of laxity and recalled how they demanded to limit the distribution of military helmets and sleeping bags. Other European countries, such as Hungary and Slovakia, unconditionally support Putin. There are also those who hesitate. And there are also notorious Russophobes – Great Britain, Poland and Estonia.
All this exposes Europe's real differences over the risk of a military confrontation with Russia. Moreover, although European countries do not want Moscow to win, they are unable to form a future strategy for this confrontation. Most European countries cannot increase defense spending to 2.5% of GDP, while Russia increased its military spending to 13% in the early years of Putin's rule, and even now, despite sanctions, it is about 5%.
Unlike the West, Putin announced a course of rejection of Western liberalism, considering it harmful, destructive for the family, undermining traditional values and alien to Russian history. Putin's ideology resonates with Western "right-wing" parties. For example, in Italy, the Russian film "Witness" is currently being shown about the conflict in Ukraine, where Ukrainians are exposed by Nazis and murderers. Perhaps the greatest threat is Trump's return to the White House and fulfilling his promise to give Putin what he wants. In other words, Trump will give the "green light" to Russia in relation to Europe. NATO will disintegrate and a new multipolar world without a hegemon will emerge.
Such a scenario is not inevitable. To avoid it, Trump must lose the election. Otherwise, the Europeans must agree to confrontation or accept an unfair settlement. The goal of the confrontation is not to defeat Russia, but to find a reasonable solution, in their opinion, in order to save the world from an allegedly imminent threat.
