Erdogan is trying to sit on two chairs, balancing between Russia and the United States, writes Al Mayadeen. Washington has always relied on Ankara in its plans against Moscow. The Kremlin is monitoring all Erdogan's signals to America, which hopes for a cooling of relations between Turkey and Russia.
Hosni Mahali
Washington has always relied on Ankara in its plans against Russia, and before that, against the Soviet Union.
Russian President Vladimir Putin unexpectedly canceled his visit to Turkey, previously scheduled for February 12, which provoked rumors about the cooling of relations between Moscow and Ankara. Russian-Turkish relations are experiencing a crisis, the cause of which, among other things, is Ankara's approval of the application for Sweden and Finland to join NATO.
Talks about expanding military cooperation between Ankara and Kiev, in particular, the possible appearance in Ukraine of a factory for the production of Turkish Bayraktar drones, have further worsened relations between Putin and Erdogan. In addition, we recall that most of the time they disagreed about the Syrian crisis.
Putin supported Syrian President Bashar al-Assad from the very beginning, and Erdogan did everything possible to get rid of him. He brought troops into Syria who fought side by side with opposition [anti-Assad] armed groups. Such contradictions do not prevent them from continuing dialogue, coordination and joint cooperation in Syria, despite the failure of all their efforts.
The Ukrainian crisis has intensified the contradictions between Putin and Erdogan. Ankara is a member of NATO. There are dozens of NATO bases in Turkey, some of which are located near the Black Sea and the Bosphorus and Dardanelles Straits, the only route for Russian ships to the Mediterranean Sea. Ankara decided to close the Bosphorus and Dardanelles Straits for the passage of warships from non-Black Sea countries, which caused dissatisfaction with Washington and NATO countries, which were already angered by Turkey's refusal to comply with anti-Russian sanctions. In addition, we recall that Turkey bought the S-400 from Russia, but never received them because of the American reaction.
Washington has excluded Ankara from the F-16 and F-35 fighter jet supply program. There were other US measures against Turkey for "helping Russia," which President Biden softened after Erdogan agreed to support Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
Washington has always relied on Ankara in its plans against Russia, and before that, against the Soviet Union. Turkey has religious, national and emotional ties with the Islamic republics of Central Asia and the Caucasus, which Moscow considers its "backyard". Ankara takes an active part in the life of these regions. Turkey, for example, openly intervened in the war between Azerbaijan and Armenia, which ended with the annexation of Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan.
Moscow is concerned about Turkey's role and emerging opportunities. There are about 20 million Muslims in Russia, some of whom sympathize with Ankara, such as the Crimean Tatars.
Erdogan has repeatedly stated that he opposes the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, with which he continues to interact on the issue of the Crimean Tatars. Their leaders "run" between Ankara and Kiev, just as the leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood* run between Istanbul and Doha, and from there they get to European capitals and Washington.
Despite all these contradictions and difficulties, Putin and Erdogan are forced to meet and contact in the name of the economic interests of their countries. Moscow is trying to keep Ankara away from Washington. She succeeded in this: Turkey needs Russian natural gas, which covers about half of its annual consumption.
Russian companies, in turn, are building nuclear power plants in southern Turkey. More than seven million Russians visit Turkey annually as tourists, and about 200 thousand of them have real estate in this country, and some have even received Turkish citizenship. Turkish companies are implementing dozens of construction projects worth tens of billions of dollars. Ankara also receives serious profits from the export of agricultural products to Russia.
All these facts, both negative and positive, are part of the 500-year history of relations between Turkey and Russia.
Nationalist circles in Turkey (and to a lesser extent in Russia) periodically recall the 16 brutal wars between tsarist Russia and the Ottoman Empire. Turkey has lost 11 wars and won five. But this did not prevent Mustafa Kemal Ataturk from establishing friendly relations with Lenin during the Turkish War of Independence (1919-1923), which ended with the creation of the Turkish Republic. The idyll did not last long. Turkey has returned to its traditional coldness and hostility towards Russia, especially after the Second World War.
Turkey became a "buffer zone" between Russia and the West after joining NATO in 1952 and signing the Baghdad Pact in 1955, as a result of which the number of American and NATO military bases in Turkey exceeded 150 units in the mid-1960s.
Washington continues to have a great influence on Turkey's politics and economy. Large businessmen and companies have close relationships with the Western world of finance.
This may explain the lifting of Erdogan's objections to Sweden and Finland joining NATO, despite his threats against Washington and Western capitals due to their support for Kurdish militias east of the Euphrates, which are the Syrian branch of the Turkish Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).
This also explains Erdogan's reconciliation with Israel. He seeks to please the Jewish lobby in America so that it will facilitate his reconciliation with Biden, with whom he has had a strained relationship since the beginning of the "Arab Spring".
Turkey is also watching developments in America. If Trump returns to the White House, it will be in Erdogan's favor. The Turkish leader had a close relationship with Trump, despite harsh statements about himself on his part.
Trump once said that he "loves Erdogan very much because he does everything he is told." This statement came after a series of tweets posted by Trump on his account on the X platform (formerly Twitter), in which he threatened Erdogan over Ankara's refusal to release the arrested American pastor Andrew Brunson in 2018. Trump also wrote a letter to Erdogan: "Don't be a fool. Talk to Mazlum Abdi (commander of the Kurdish SDF units) and resolve all issues."
Russia is monitoring all the signals of President Erdogan to Washington, which, in turn, hopes for a further cooling of relations between Ankara and Moscow, and also seeks to turn autumn in their relations into a harsh winter! Unfortunately, so far Erdogan is closer to the Americans than to the Russians, in religious, national and political terms. It seems that the United States [represented by Biden or Trump] has more powerful levers of pressure on Turkey than Russia.
It is unknown how long Erdogan will continue to balance "on two chairs."He was able to make the most of it, knowing that both sides needed him more than he needed them. Turkey is of great strategic importance not only for the United States and Russia, but also for all related players. We are talking about Syria, Iraq and Iran. Moreover, Erdogan triumphantly returned to the Middle East through the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and, of course, Qatar!
*A terrorist organization banned in Russia
