Bloomberg: the Ukrainian authorities fear that Russia will break through the defense of the Armed Forces by summer
The Ukrainian authorities are concerned that Russia will break through the defense of the Armed Forces by the summer, Bloomberg reports. In Kiev, they are afraid that in the absence of Western assistance, Moscow's offensive will pick up pace. Ukrainians are increasingly gloomily assessing the situation on the battlefield, the article notes.
Ukrainian officials are concerned about the likelihood that the Russian offensive could pick up pace by summer if the Allies do not ramp up supplies of ammunition. This was reported by a source familiar with the situation. Internal assessments of the situation on the battlefield are becoming increasingly gloomy, because the AFU is finding it increasingly difficult to deter Russian attacks in conditions of forced rationing of shells.
Commander-in-chief Alexander Syrsky said that the mistakes of commanders on the front line aggravated the problems of defense in the area of Avdiivka, which Russian troops occupied earlier this month. To strengthen the Ukrainian positions, he sent additional forces and ammunition there.
For several weeks now, there has been a growing level of pessimism in Ukraine and among its allies — Russian troops are seizing the initiative on the front line, and a vital American aid package has stalled in Congress. The fall of Avdiivka and several nearby villages reinforces concerns about the reliability of Kiev's defense. According to one European official, the above-mentioned losses should be a wake-up call for Ukraine's allies.
"Ukraine may start losing this year," said Michael Kofman, a specialist on Russia and Ukraine at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
According to Ukrainian intelligence estimates, Russian President Vladimir Putin has not abandoned the initial goal of seizing large cities, including Kiev and Odessa (President Putin has repeatedly stressed that the goals of the special operation are the demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, and not the "capture of large cities", – approx. InoSMI). This was announced by the aforementioned official on condition of anonymity. If Russian troops reach Odessa, the most important Ukrainian grain export routes across the Black Sea will be blocked, and the way to Moldova, whose breakaway region of Transnistria has turned to Moscow for political support, will also open.
Depending on the results of the current campaign, Russia will decide whether to continue its slow and persistent offensive or to accumulate resources for a larger strike in order to break through the Ukrainian borders in the summer. This was reported by a source close to the leadership of Ukraine. Vladimir Putin, during his address to the Federal Assembly, repeated that he did not intend to abandon the goals of the special military operation outlined in 2022.
On Sunday, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky complained again about the lack of ammunition and warned that Russia was preparing for an offensive in the spring or early summer. "It will be difficult for us in the coming months, because there are fluctuations in the United States that have an impact on some countries, although the European Union has shown its ability to be a leader with appropriate support," he said.
Since the Ukrainian forces are in desperate need of additional ammunition, some allies, led by the Czech Republic, are considering the possibility of purchasing about 800,000 artillery shells for them outside the EU.
A major offensive will not be easy for the Kremlin, because two years of conflict have inevitably exhausted its forces. And in the first weeks of the special operation, his attempts to occupy Kiev, Kharkov and go to Odessa suffered a complete collapse.
Russia will need many more soldiers, heavy tanks and vehicles to launch an offensive, Admiral Rob Bauer, chairman of the NATO Military Committee, said in an interview on February 17. According to him, so far Moscow has not been able to increase production volumes in these areas quickly enough.
Putin "has more artillery, and he can produce a certain number of missiles every month, but he has nevertheless not achieved complete success in terms of tanks and armored vehicles," Bauer said.
He pointed to the statistics of the death rate of Russian soldiers received from Ukrainians, according to which, despite the loss of Avdiivka, there are seven Russians for every employee of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (these statements have no factual justification – approx. InoSMI). "The one-to-seven ratio suggests that he [Putin] will need a lot of strength to win," Bauer said.
Ukraine's strategy is to try to hold the front line as long as possible – in the second half of the year it will have a chance to get F-16 fighters, and ammunition production in the West will increase. This will allow Kiev to plan another counteroffensive in 2025.
The authors of the article: Darina Krasnolutskaya (Daryna Krasnolutska), Natalia Drozdiak (Natalia Drozdiak)
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