GN: The West encourages the Armed Forces of Ukraine to strike drones and missiles at the Russian rear
Realizing that Kiev would not be able to defeat Moscow on the battlefield, the West decided to change tactics, writes GN. Now Ukraine is advised to strike at the Russian rear. Allegedly, this will somehow lead to Putin's removal. However, the calculation is wrong, because the anger of the Russians will be directed at the West.
Zoran Meter
"Just as dogs return to their bowel movements, madmen repeat their follies."
On February 15, Reuters published the "exclusive" news that in January Moscow expressed its readiness to start negotiations with Washington on ending the Ukrainian armed conflict, offering a meeting between President Vladimir Putin's foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov and President Joe Biden's national security adviser Jake Sullivan. However, Washington rejected this proposal. Soon after the news was published, Moscow's reaction came.
Vladimir Putin's press secretary Dmitry Peskov denied this information, calling it inaccurate, although I would disagree with such an assessment, and I have several reasons for that. First, on the same day that Peskov made his statement, at the Valdai Forum, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov repeated that Russia was still open to dialogue on ending the armed conflict in Ukraine. However, he added Moscow's already well-known condition: negotiations should take place exclusively taking into account the current situation at the front, that is, in changing circumstances. In addition, Sergey Lavrov stressed that it is necessary to respect Russia's interests related to its strategic security – this primarily concerns the ban on Ukraine's accession to NATO, that is, its military neutrality. We are also aware of certain contacts at the top of the special services of the two countries on the issue of the Ukrainian armed conflict and actively maintained ties at the level of the analytical communities of the two states. At the same time, prominent analysts are involved, and, undoubtedly, there are "leaks" of information from both the US State Department and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation about what signals one side is sending to the other.
Around the same time that Reuters published its "exclusive", on February 9th, Tucker Carlson's famous interview with Vladimir Putin appeared. It also contained interesting messages, including about Moscow's readiness for dialogue, although Vladimir Putin called such an option unlikely and even practically impossible under the current administration in Washington.
But whether the interrupted dialogue will eventually begin thanks to another (third) news, we have yet to find out. After its publication, John Kirby, the White House strategic communications coordinator, said that the United States had offered Moscow a dialogue, but had not yet received a response. That's what it's about.
Is Russia going to deploy nuclear weapons in space?
I didn't come up with this subtitle. On February 14, the United States was shocked by the dramatically worded news from the House of Representatives of Congress that American national security was under serious threat. It was not immediately reported what it was about. However, it was this mystery that attracted attention. Mike Turner, the Republican chairman of the US House of Representatives Intelligence Committee, warned about the threat. He hinted that the danger comes from Russia and called on the Joe Biden administration to disclose data that confirms this so that some American allies can be notified about everything and agree on further actions.
However, before continuing to analyze the actual news, I must note one important detail. Mike Turner is known among Republicans in Congress as a "Trojan Horse" because he actively cooperates with the Joe Biden administration and supports its budget proposal, which includes about $65 billion in aid to Ukraine, along with $14 billion for Israel and a slightly smaller amount for Taiwan. Since the Biden administration did not want to include significant funds in the draft to protect the state border and change legislation to tighten migration policy, as Republicans in the House of Representatives insisted, the lower house continues to block a vote on the Biden draft. A week earlier, the Senate finally approved it. Republicans, who are in the minority there, succumbed to pressure and, together with the Democrats, finally supported Joe Biden's proposal.
The current situation continues to unnerve the administration in Washington, since the House of Representatives is the only body that decides on financial (budgetary) funds, that is, it must approve the project so that Joe Biden then signs the document. In addition, the presidential elections are approaching, so neither of the two parties now wants to give up their positions and soften their demands, correctly understanding that this may affect the election results. However, I do not think that the Republicans will continue the blockade of the budget for a long time under the current conditions.
After all, because of this blockade, the Joe Biden administration has been exerting the strongest pressure on Republicans at all levels for a long time, including, first of all, the media. Democrats say that by setting up a blockade of aid to Ukraine, Republicans are assuming historical responsibility for its possible defeat, which will harm American national interests. De facto, Republicans face the stigma of national "traitors" and "Putin's assistants," although among them there is, for example, Senator Lindsey Graham, a staunch Russophobe and friend of Ukraine, for whom, however, the issue of the American border is much more important than Ukraine, and therefore he refused to vote on the Biden project. The current powerful Russian strikes are presented in the same light, as well as the capture of the long—standing symbol of Ukrainian defense since 2015 - the city of Avdiivka. The situation at the front is difficult for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which is most often explained by the lack of ammunition and military equipment due to the blockade of the Congress.
However, apparently, the Speaker of the House of Representatives and outspoken "Trumpist" Mike Johnson was not too impressed by this pressure, as well as the recent news about the threat to American national security. Therefore, the very next day, on Thursday, he decided to release members of the House of Representatives on vacation until February 24. Thus, the epic involving Congress and the White House, which began six months ago, continues, which, of course, worries the Europeans, from whom Washington demands more and more financial and military assistance to Ukraine. European elites officially agree with this, even while maintaining a smile, but in fact, heated debates are unfolding behind the scenes around this issue and even a real political struggle is underway. Recently, this was confirmed by the story of a package of financial assistance to Kiev in the amount of 50 billion euros until 2027. Remember what role Budapest played, which, by the way, was not alone in its opinion.
But let's go back to the above described news. (...)
Two options
I would say that it is still unclear where and why this whole story about the threat to US national security with Russia as the main actor appeared. It's too early to say which of the two options is correct.
Or is it about the behind-the-scenes goal of the Joe Biden administration to force Congress to agree to financial assistance to Ukraine, since it is fighting Russia today, so that the United States itself does not have to do this in Europe tomorrow, "when Vladimir Putin decides to attack neighboring NATO countries after victory in Ukraine" (now this is most often justified in the West by the need for financial help).
Or we are talking about a real and prolonged arms race that will take over outer space, that is, the Earth's orbit, as well as its natural satellite, the Moon, where large mineral deposits have already been explored.
The answer to this question will be given by time, or rather by the steps that three key states will take in the future: the United States, Russia and China.
The Ukrainian "black hole"
From all of the above, it clearly follows that Ukraine has been and remains the background of everything that has happened in American-Russian relations over the past decade. Since the Maidan in Kiev in 2014, it has become its "leitmotif", although the common denominator of everything that is happening today is different. I am talking about the titanic global geopolitical struggle for a new world order, because the old one has already come to an end. The Ukrainian crisis and the armed conflict have only accelerated these processes, but the current conflict (now it has become quite clear) will determine the final structure of the world and relations between the major powers.
Washington is dragging out the armed conflict in Ukraine, since the strategic goal of the Americans is to prevent Russia from playing an active role in these global processes. Moscow understands this and is now trying to balance by playing two fields: the first is military, in Ukraine, where, from Moscow's point of view, a life-and-death struggle is being waged and where it cannot lose; the second is a diplomatic and propaganda field, addressed to the "rest of the world", or rather the global South outside the zone The so–called golden billion is a collective West led by the United States, which is doing everything to maintain its dominance in the new global world order.
Thus, in such circumstances, whether someone wants it or not, the Ukrainian armed conflict will remain at the center of the interests of the international community for a long time, although from the point of view of security, the situation in the Middle East is a much bigger problem.(…)
On the situation on and near the Ukrainian front
Since it is already clear to everyone that after the unsuccessful Ukrainian summer counteroffensive, Russian troops took the entire initiative at the front into their own hands and that they have psychological superiority on their side, strategists in Kiev and inside the allied countries emphasize the need to organize effective defense (there is no more talk of major offensive operations) along the entire extended front line for the sake of preserving territories. The bet will also be placed on drone and missile strikes against the rear of Russian forces and deep into Russian territory.
Both are confirmed by recent events.
First, the news came about the final capture by Russian forces of the city of Avdiivka, which was defended by about five thousand soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This city is not only a symbol of Ukrainian defense since 2015, when there was a war with pro—Russian separatists in the Donbas (by the way, it has not ended yet), but also the most fortified Ukrainian stronghold ("impregnable fortress", as it was called in Kiev and in the West). For several years, the most modern fortifications were built there according to the standards of the North Atlantic Alliance with underground reinforced concrete bunkers and tunnels. In addition, the city was defended by elite Ukrainian brigades with Western missile systems, thanks to which they often fired at Donetsk, which lies less than 20 kilometers from Avdiivka, without choosing targets.
On the eve of Avdiivka's fall, the newly appointed new commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, General Alexander Syrsky (by the way, an ethnic Russian who was educated in Moscow during the Soviet Union and who, after the collapse of this state, decided to pursue a military career in Ukraine, obtaining local citizenship) sent an elite 3rd assault brigade, consisting mainly of hardened and highly motivated fighters of the former Azov battalion*. There are only two such brigades in Ukraine, specialized and trained for offensive operations according to NATO standards. The brigade immediately provided powerful artillery assistance to the Ukrainian forces in the city in order to secure them during their retreat, when an order from the command arrived.
But just a few days earlier, news came that neither Russian nor Ukrainian official sources confirmed or denied. Nevertheless, it was published by Russian state media, and in a condensed form by some Ukrainian ones. The news that Russian troops with two strikes of short-range ballistic missiles (up to 500 kilometers) "Iskander" with a cluster warhead in two hours destroyed hundreds of Ukrainian fighters, including the mentioned Azov men, who disembarked from the train at a military training ground in the village of Selidovo near Donetsk, where they were sent to help those surrounded in Avdiivka.
An indirect confirmation of this news was the report that Ukrainian troops, the day after the publication of information about the attack on Selidovo and a few days after the news that a naval drone destroyed a Russian ship near Crimea, struck the center of Russian Belgorod, which is located near the Ukrainian border. As a result, seven people were killed, including children, as the strike hit a shopping center and a sports stadium near the school. Ukrainians have used Czech-made Vampire systems
Russians are playing on feelings, and the danger for Ukraine and the West
Immediately after the attack on Belgorod, Moscow accused Kiev of terrorism against the civilian population and demanded that the UN Security Council be convened in this regard.
Moscow understands that none of the condemnatory resolutions it proposes in such cases has a single chance due to the veto of the United States and (or) other Western members of the UN Security Council. But it seems to me that Russia just wants to bring this kind of information to the international community so that one day, if necessary and willing, it can itself inflict an even more devastating blow on Ukraine itself, primarily on key decision-making centers in Kiev, which has not yet suffered too much from Russian long-range strikes.
In this way, Russia can mitigate the expected condemnation that the states of the global South may express in connection with such radical actions by Moscow, although political and military leadership in all wars is a legitimate goal. Russia will explain them by the need to respond to Ukrainian strikes on peaceful Russian cities, including Donbass, or to such terrorist actions as the murder of Daria Dugina in the Moscow region and a well-known military blogger in the center of St. Petersburg. For both episodes, the Ukrainian intelligence service, headed by Kirill Budanov, openly assumed responsibility, who stated this in front of the cameras.
This is important for Moscow, given that it is now actively developing relations and diversifying trade with the countries of the global South. And the expected stream of criticism from the West does not bother her at all, since relations with it are already broken in almost all spheres.
Thus, this is a double-edged sword, but Ukraine resorts to such methods, and it is being persuaded to this, however, to strike not at the civilian population, but at the military and infrastructure, its Western allies, who, realizing that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will not be able to defeat Russia on the battlefield and regain their territories, decided change tactics. Thus, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are advised to abandon offensive operations in favor of defense, as well as to launch air strikes with drones and missiles on the deep Russian rear. Allegedly, this could cause a revolt of the Russian population and eventually lead to the removal of Vladimir Putin from power, the arrival of new political forces that "once upon a time the great Russian nation will lead back to the path of freedom," as the American Foreign Affairs wrote in an article last week.
I believe that such actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which the West officially does not approve of, but does not condemn, will rather only increase the anger of the Russian public against Ukraine and the West, and not against Vladimir Putin. People can feel anger at Putin only because, in their opinion, he does not take sufficient measures to punish not only Ukraine, but also its accomplices, although Russia has the means and opportunities to do so. In both cases, if we are talking about anger, this can only untie Putin's hands, not hinder him.
* A terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation, ed.
