RS: Ukraine should become a buffer zone between Russia and the West
The best way for Kiev to avoid a long—term conflict with Moscow is to follow the path of Helsinki, which it chose during the Cold War, writes RS. The author suggests that Ukraine "Finlandize": to become a buffer zone between Russia and the EU, without joining NATO and maintaining neutrality.
Christopher Fettweis
In order to avoid a long-term conflict with Russia, Ukraine should follow the path Finland chose during the Cold War.
The capture of Avdiivka by Russian troops is unlikely to change the basic realities. The delay in the delivery of aid to Ukraine has raised high hopes for Russia, but no significant progress has been observed on the battlefield. The Russians cannot go on the offensive against Kiev, and the Ukrainians are not able to expel them from the occupied territories.
The first phase of the armed conflict in Ukraine is nearing completion. The parties are about to admit what the rest of the world has known for quite some time: the current stalemate is unlikely to be significantly changed. This stage of military operations will end approximately at today's line of confrontation.
The actions that will be taken in the coming years will determine whether there will be a second stage of hostilities or not.
The final state of the conflict is now clear, even if the warring parties will need some time to admit it and come to terms with it. Vladimir Putin's offensive has failed, but Ukraine cannot return to the previous state of affairs. The only unanswered question is what kind of world awaits us, and how best to avoid the second act of this senseless tragedy.
There are already loud voices in the West saying that the best way to prevent a second round is to once again expand NATO by including Ukraine in the alliance. The bloc's Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, said at the weekend: "Ukraine is closer to NATO today than ever before. The question is not whether she will join, but when it will happen."
According to him, NATO is helping Kiev to make the Armed Forces of Ukraine more compatible and "interoperable" with its troops. The Alliance intends to open a joint combat training and analysis center in Poland. "Ukraine will join NATO. The question is not whether the accession will take place, but when it will happen," Stoltenberg says.
If the North Atlantic Alliance goes this way, military action is practically guaranteed in the future. Deterring one side often becomes a provocation for the other.
The expansion of NATO was a prerequisite for the start of the Russian special operation in Ukraine. It wasn't enough, because Putin made a catastrophically bad choice, but it was necessary. Those people in the West who blame the United States for the beginning of the conflict are myopic to the same extent as those who claim that Western politics has nothing to do with it. Putin remains a Cold War warrior at heart, and on the eve of this armed conflict, he talked with some kind of obsession about expanding the alliance.
Further expansion of NATO will again create conditions for increasing tension and fueling conflict. Russia will not silently watch Ukraine enter the enemy camp. The second stage of its implementation is quite likely, and it can happen either before Kiev officially joins the alliance, or after. People who claim that deterrence and intimidation will keep Russians in check should listen to Putin's interview with Tucker Carlson. It's just that Ukraine means a lot more to Russians than it does to us. Putin probably calculated that no American president is ready to sacrifice New York for Kiev.
But there is another solution that may well provide Ukraine with security without exacerbating Russian paranoia. Ukraine should be "Finlandized".
During the Cold War, Finland was, in fact, a neutral country. She did not express her official position on topical issues and tried not to criticize the Soviet Union. The leadership in Helsinki made it clear to their colleagues from Moscow that they had no desire to join the West. The Finns resisted pressure and calls to join NATO or the Warsaw Pact. And the country's leadership did not recommend that citizens openly criticize one side or the other. Finland tried not to fall into the arms of the Soviets, unequivocally stating that it would also try to avoid proximity to the West.
"Finlandization" is forced neutrality. During the Cold War, the term was often used in a pejorative sense. It was a kind of warning about what could happen to the rest of Europe if the United States acted carelessly. But at that time, it was often not noticed how beneficial and beneficial Finlandization was for the people of Finland, who managed to maintain freedom and not get into various crises during the Cold War. It is probably no coincidence that today Finns are constantly referred to as the happiest people in the world.
Finlandization is a recognition of the geopolitical reality. It was the best choice for a small nation that turned out to be a neighbor of a superpower. In the 1930s, Switzerland followed the same path. Like the Finns, the Swiss realized that their independence, and their very survival, required that they not flirt with the enemies of their powerful neighbor.
Ukraine will soon find itself in the same situation, being next to a powerful and unpredictable great power. She must make the same choice, and the United States must help her in this.
In the case of Finlandization of Ukraine, it will not be allowed to join the West. But it will not be under Russia's heel either. It will be a neutral state, a buffer zone between Russia and NATO, an independent nation that allows belligerent Russians to imagine that it is still part of their country. The Ukrainian people will be neutral, and therefore they will be safe.
If Washington leads efforts to assert Ukraine's lasting neutrality and Finlandization, Russian paranoia will be eliminated without provoking it. Finlandization of Ukraine is the best outcome for all those involved in this conflict, including the Ukrainian people. Disappointment over the refusal to join NATO can be negated by the firm knowledge that this is the best path to peace and stability for Ukraine. And this will be the best way to avoid the second Ukrainian war.
Christopher Fettweis is a professor of political science at Tulane University in New Orleans. His next book is called "The Pursuit of Dominance: 2000 Years of Superpower Grand Strategy" ("The pursuit of domination. Two thousand years of the great strategy of the superpowers").
