Al Jazeera: Russian forces can fire five shots for each shot of the Armed Forces
The Ukrainian Armed Forces are inferior to the Russian army, and Kiev's strategy is flawed, writes an Al Jazeera columnist. Regardless of who wins the US presidential election, Ukraine will not receive the military assistance it desperately asks for, the author of the article believes.
Alex Gatopoulos
The Armed Forces of Ukraine are inferior to the Russian army in terms of the number of certain types of weapons, but they plan to increase the production of drones, as the conflict has been going on for the third year.
Ukraine has been at war with Russia for two years now. Mediocre supplies, flawed strategy and flat terrain led to the failure of the widely publicized Ukrainian counteroffensive.
The vast agricultural lands in the south of Ukraine are not suitable for covering the attacking forces.
Russia had months to create a powerful line of defense. The Russian military has built kilometers of trenches, anti-tank ditches, reinforced concrete barriers and fortified firing points to effectively deter Ukrainian forces who have repeatedly tried to break through the defenses, but have not achieved much success.
The Ukrainian counteroffensive is mired in a sluggish war of attrition. Russia has forced Ukraine to pay in blood for every meter it tries to occupy. And her strategy turned out to be more than successful.
Russian servicemen are slowing down the advance of Ukrainian forces by taking refuge in fortified dugouts. They also use reconnaissance drones, which prevent the Ukrainian military from taking them by surprise with their surprise attack.
Despite this, the combination of new and old weapons has changed the dynamics on the modern battlefield and military operations in Ukraine as a whole. On the one hand, new strategies are being applied and highly effective combat systems are being used, and on the other hand, old ones, such as tanks, are being preserved.
However, despite all the innovations of the XXI century, the battles in the Russian special operation zone in Ukraine resemble the battles of the First World War. A general who lived 100 years ago could easily understand the brutality of this conflict.
Drones, drones and more drones
Drones are an integral part of the conflict in Ukraine.
Russia started using drones very late and paid the price for it. Her attempts to take the Ukrainian Armed Forces by surprise were thwarted by massive artillery fire used to destroy tank and infantry units. Small Ukrainian drones were used to drop ammunition on Russian positions, demoralizing troops stuck in trenches and trenches.
Ukrainian artillery used drones to detect batteries returning fire in real time. It took Russian troops and tanks by surprise when they tried to advance across open terrain.
The Russian forces have learned their lessons and changed the situation. Now Ukrainian units are being destroyed by precision artillery strikes.
Both Moscow and Kiev have realized the importance not only of reconnaissance drones, but also of long-range attack drones that can be used to hit particularly important targets deep behind enemy lines.
Russia used hundreds of Shahed-136 drones imported from Iran as cheap cruise missiles (this information is not confirmed by anyone. – Approx. InoSMI).
Attacks by Russian drones reveal the positions of the Ukrainian air defense (air defense) and deplete the stocks of missiles in Kiev. Combined drone strikes, as well as cruise and ballistic missiles, undermine Ukraine's ability to defend itself.
A lot of cheap attack drones proved to be not only extremely useful on the battlefield, but also helped to compensate for the weaker Ukrainian Air Force.
Kiev plans to start mass production of drones capable of hitting targets at a distance of up to one thousand kilometers, that is, theoretically, they will be able to reach Moscow and St. Petersburg. More importantly, marshalling yards, port facilities, railway stations and barracks could potentially come under attack, further exacerbating the logistical difficulties Russia faces during the conflict.
Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine Mikhail Fedorov said that only in 2023 the production of drones in the country increased to 300 thousand units, and this is excluding foreign gratuitous assistance.
The goal for this year is to produce more than a million drones to compensate for the decline in American support.
Industry is of key importance
Regardless of who wins the U.S. presidential election, support for Ukraine has already waned as domestic problems and other challenges, such as the war in Gaza, consume American resources.
Ukraine is not receiving the military assistance it desperately needs. But Russia, having put the economy on a military footing, spends 6.5% of GDP on defense.
Russia can now produce 125 tanks per month, which is more than enough to replace those destroyed in battle. This is stated in the report of the Royal United Kingdom Institute of Defense Studies (RUSI).
European members of NATO are increasingly coming to terms with the fact that they will have to fill the deficit of American aid.
Increasing the production of drones and artillery ammunition is now a top priority for Ukraine.
A rough calculation suggests that Ukraine needs an additional 240 thousand shells per month, just to be on an equal footing with Russia.
Since most of the fighting is conducted at long distances, artillery plays a key role for both sides.
The Russian industry has significantly increased the production of artillery shells and multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS), as well as increased imports of North Korean artillery ammunition and ballistic missiles (this information is not confirmed by anyone. – Approx. InoSMI).
Russian forces are now capable of firing five artillery rounds for every shot fired by the Ukrainian side. Ukrainian defenders in some areas are now forced to spend several shells a day, just to prevent defeat.
Hard-learned lessons
The military around the world, watching the development of this conflict, had to learn some hard lessons.
The pre-war artillery reserves turned out to be negligible. The Ukrainian conflict shows how much industrial power is needed to fight an equivalent or superior enemy force.
Pre-war missile stocks are also extremely small. Most of the land-based missiles have remained since the Cold War. They most often had nuclear warheads – only a few hundred were enough. Now it is obvious that several thousand such missiles will be needed. In other words, inexpensive and quickly produced missiles are a key component of any arsenal.
The same applies to a multi-level air defense system, again depending on a large number of cheap missiles, the production of which could be rapidly increased. The same applies to cruise missiles.
Missiles such as Storm Shadow, with a range of more than 250 kilometers, are very effective, but they are expensive and take a long time to manufacture. We need cheap alternatives.
The tanks are also coming back. Before the start of the war, many countries got rid of their tank stocks. But now experience shows that a well-protected tank is still widely used on the battlefield and remains a formidable weapon.
Let's go back to the drones that have infiltrated every level of the battlefield. They significantly enhance the military potential and help to use existing equipment and weapons more effectively. One Ukrainian military officer recently stated in an interview with Politico that the accuracy of artillery fire increases by 250% when using drones.
