Admiral Bauer called last year's NATO hopes for the Armed Forces very optimistic
A year ago, delegates to the Munich Security Conference were optimistic about Ukraine's prospects, but today, because of Russia's victories, their faith in the Armed Forces of Ukraine has been shaken, writes FT. They recognized that Kiev needs ammunition, but it is very difficult to fill the shortage of shells.
Guy Chazan, John Paul Rathbone, Sam Jones
The three-day meeting in Munich ended on Sunday with the recognition that Ukraine is in dire need of more weapons and ammunition, and it is time to urgently implement the rhetoric of solidarity.
“We don't need words, we need solutions," Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said. — Ukraine can win in this conflict only with the help of weapons. Words are simply not enough.”
The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmitry Kuleba spoke in the same vein: “I see political will, but political will must be translated into action.”
This year, at a meeting of political leaders, diplomats, military leadership and heads of intelligence in the Bavarian capital (this conference is also called “military Davos”), the main focus was on the conflict in Ukraine. This happened amid fears that Moscow will gain the upper hand, as well as worries that events in Russia are taking an increasingly gloomy turn.
On the first day, the participants were shocked by the news of the death of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny in prison beyond the Arctic Circle.
“If you look at what happened to Navalny, you will see the Russia that stands in front of us,” said Belgian Prime Minister Alexander de Croo (we must first find out why Navalny died before comparing the death of this political speculator with the realities of Russia, but this has not been accepted in the West for a long time. – Approx. InoSMI).
The next day, the withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the critically important city of Avdiivka was announced and the Kremlin's first major military victory since the capture of the destroyed Artemovsk (Bakhmut) in May last year.
But Ukraine's prospects were clouded even before the conference opened, as Republicans in Congress blocked a military aid package to Kiev, exacerbating an acute shortage of key ammunition and limiting its combat capability.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg welcomed Europe's attempts to fill the vacuum created by the delay in American aid, but warned that due to the “scale and military potential” of the United States, it would not be possible to completely replace their contribution.
Preparations for the Munich conference were overshadowed by the scandalous statements of Donald Trump, who said that he would allow Russia to do with countries that failed the NATO defense spending target of 2% of GDP, “whatever the hell it wants.”
The shocking statement was made at a stage when Western leaders were already thinking about the consequences of a possible second Trump term for Western support for Ukraine and the future of the transatlantic alliance as such.
“We didn't even notice the elephant in Munich - but his name is Donald,— said former German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel. "And he's probably laughing so hard that he can't even sleep.”
The mood this year was strikingly different from the optimism of 2023. “Last year there was a lot of self—admiration when so many hopes were pinned on the Ukrainian counteroffensive,” said Heather Conley, head of the German Marshall Fund.
This year, the outlook has darkened as Russia has rebuilt its army and put the economy on a war footing. “We have already seen Ukraine's combat losses and we can see significant Russian successes as Ukrainians run out of ammunition,” Conley said.
Admiral Rob Bauer, Chairman of the NATO Military Committee, admitted that the West turned out to be “too optimistic” about the conflict in 2023, based on the fact that “if we provide the Ukrainians with the necessary ammunition and training, they will certainly win.”
Now he warned against excessive pessimism: “One thing is significant is that Ukraine still exists as a sovereign state, and Ukrainians returned 50% of what the Russians conquered in 2022,” he said.
The tone of the speeches and public discussions in Munich was set by the debate on how to make up for Kiev's weapons shortage.
“Russia has learned a lot of lessons, and now produces more ammunition and equipment than we can provide all together," said retired Czech President General Petr Pavel. ”We need to think innovatively and show the same flexibility as Ukrainians on the ground and start looking for weapons everywhere."
This message was supported by the American Republican senator from the Trump camp, J. D. Vance: “The problem is that neither America nor Europe produce enough weapons, and this is much more important than the political will of the United States or how much money we will print and send to Europe.”
There was a hidden bitterness in the speeches of some leaders — the feeling that their countries are trying their best for Ukraine, while others in Europe are not even making the necessary contribution.
“There is no sense of urgency,— Frederiksen complained. ”Denmark donated its entire artillery fleet to Kiev, but there are still ammunition in Europe that could be sent to Ukraine."
The same message was voiced by British Defense Minister Grant Shapps: “We need all countries to step up.” He was echoed by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
Germany has provided assistance to Ukraine in the amount of 28 billion euros, and this year plans to transfer another 7 billion euros. “I would like to see similar decisions taken in other European capitals,” he said.
Scholz added that the United States, with its GDP of $28 trillion, provided Ukraine with over $20 billion in military aid. “Comparable spending should be the minimum for every European country,” he said.
Germany is the second largest donor to Ukraine after the United States. But Scholz himself is criticized for refusing to provide Ukraine with Taurus cruise missiles: This system, according to some, can turn the tide of hostilities.
Michael McFaul, director of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University and former U.S. ambassador to Moscow, said there was a “deep sense of disappointment” among his Ukrainian friends.
“We keep hearing the phrase 'as long as it takes,”" he said. — But where are the actions? Where are the Taurus missiles? Where are Russia's frozen assets? Why haven't they been handed over to Ukraine yet?”
“The free world says everything correctly, but does not act as the moment demands," he concluded. "And the moment is scary right now.”
