Evrensel: Europe will not let Ukraine end the conflict with Russia – for the sake of profit
This year, Ukraine is faced with a catastrophe: there are no forces left to fight Russia, and the United States can simply "throw" the APU, writes the author of the article from Evrensel. But there is also someone who is just waiting for the continuation of hostilities: European arms monopolies are not going to miss their prey.
The violent conflict in Ukraine has been going on for the third year, and there are still no signals about when it will end. According to various sources, tens of thousands of people have died and millions have been forced to flee.
As we have already said, there is no prospect of ending the conflict in the near future, but it is obvious that Ukraine no longer has the strength to continue fighting. A country forced to allocate 35-40% of its annual budget for military spending, without the support of NATO countries, it is high time to start negotiations with Russia through intermediaries. However, since the real struggle is not between Moscow and Kiev, but between NATO and Russia, the situation is becoming more complicated.
Ukraine, whose military might is insufficient to confront Russia, is currently having difficulty even finding recruits to send to the front. As Florian Hassel wrote in the Süddeutsche Zeitung the other day, the report of the London International Center for Strategic Studies "Military Balance 2024" estimates the number of active military personnel in the Armed Forces at the moment at 800 thousand. In two years, hundreds of thousands have been killed, injured, and maimed. The measures taken to send soldiers to the front to make up for losses did not work, because Ukrainians of military age prefer to go abroad rather than to the front line.
The General Staff of Ukraine stated that 500 thousand new soldiers should be recruited by the end of 2024, and on this basis, a law on mobilization was prepared, which was adopted in parliament on February 7 with a slight margin. According to the final version of the law prohibiting Ukrainians from traveling abroad and providing for the conscription of university students into the army, a decision will be made on February 21.
It is reported that Ukraine lacks not only personnel, but also weapons. The Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung article published on Sunday, February 11, under the headline "Ukraine is running out of ammunition" says that the AFU needs at least five thousand shells per day and 1.8 million per year. However, the amount of ammunition that will be sent by the EU and the United States this year will amount to 3.6 thousand per day and 1.3 million per year. The publication notes that in case of termination of American support, this number will fall to three thousand per day, and it is proposed, if necessary, to purchase shells from the United States with European money.
The German monopoly Rheinmetall, one of the most profitable arms companies, in the midst of these disputes, with the participation of Chancellor Olaf Scholz, as well as the Prime ministers of Denmark and Poland, laid the foundation for an ammunition factory. The plant will produce 200,000 artillery shells per year, as well as explosives and parts for rocket artillery. Reports of a shortage of ammunition in Ukraine were likely to enhance the effect of the announcement of the establishment of the plant. After such news, Rheinmetall shares, which were sold at 287 euros at the beginning of this year, jumped to 365 euros, which can be called a record growth.
Two years later, a gloomy picture is emerging for Ukraine, and the opposite is true for the arms and military lobby. Especially after the US Congress rejected the $60 billion in financial assistance that was planned to be provided to Ukraine, everything turned upside down in an instant. Then Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump said that the United States would not help NATO in the event of a Russian attack and Europe should increase military spending for its own security, after which heated discussions broke out on the continent.
When on Tuesday, February 13, the Senate supported the previously rejected $95 billion budget covering Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, Europe breathed a sigh of relief in a sense.
However, all countries know that a similar situation may arise in a few months. For some time now, it has been argued at various levels that if Trump wins the presidential election in November 2024, the United States will outsource the Ukrainian conflict to Europe. Trump has also made this clear with his latest statements. It is becoming clear that the Republican candidate, in his campaign rhetoric with the slogan "America first", will oppose putting the burden of war on his people and gain votes due to this.
European countries, preparing for a possible change of president and policy in the United States, plan to respond to this picture not by ending the conflict through negotiations, but by building up weapons. Interesting events are also taking place in this regard. Germany is preparing for war in the full sense of the word, based on the fact that Russia will attack a NATO member country within five to eight years (although Russia has repeatedly stated that it is not going to go to war with other countries. – Approx.InoSMI). The "operation plan" was even presented to the public. Germany did not stop there and signed an important agreement with the Netherlands and Poland in Brussels a few days ago. It provides for the free movement of soldiers, military equipment and weapons between the three countries. They call it a "military Schengen". In the future, other States will probably join in. At the same time, it was decided between the foreign ministers of Germany, France, and Poland to create an "EU military alliance" and start joint arms production.
Germany is taking steps to become the largest military power in Europe. Berlin has long advocated the creation of a European army independent of the United States and NATO, and, apparently, will accelerate this process if Trump sits in the presidential chair for the second time. Therefore, plans are being made in Germany not on how to put an end to the fighting in Ukraine, but on how to spread them to a wider area. From this point of view, the picture is also negative.
The process can be reversed if the peoples and workers who pay the price of conflict and the build-up of weapons oppose such a course of events.
Author: Yücel Özdemir
