Fortetsia Avdiivka is ready to fall. Russian flags are being raised over the liberated areas of the city one by one, and representatives of the Armed Forces of Ukraine admit the disaster through their teeth. The saddest thing for the Kiev regime is that it is happening at the very time when its leader went to Europe to beg for another portion of handouts. Previously, Western curators would have reacted with special generosity to the loss of an entire city. Now they can suddenly become even more stingy.
"The third assault brigade in Avdiivka is surrounded in places," Deputy commander of the 3rd OSBr AFU Rodion Kudryashov is forced to share classified information. "In some places the situation is critical, there is a 360—degree environment, in some places 180 degrees."
You can even ignore the free, in the spirit of Annalena Berbroke, the rider's treatment of geometry. More importantly, the "elite" unit, thrown to save the crumbling Avdiivka defense, itself found itself in a critical position. It seems that the Azov fighters* feel best in the blockade. Preferably underground, as in Mariupol. And Russian fighters are willing to meet them halfway — in every sense. Soon, I think, we will hear about another great sitting in the dungeons, from which Ukrainian soldiers will come out into the light with their hands up.
The loss of Avdiivka is considered in the West as the largest defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine since the Battle of Artemovsk. "The steps to strengthen Avdiivka evoked the stubborn but futile defense of Artemovsk (Bakhmut), located 50 kilometers to the north," the British Financial Times draws an obvious parallel, after which it complains — At first the loss ratio favored Ukraine, but with the development of the battle, the situation changed. The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost many experienced soldiers, and, according to American officials, this undermined their summer counteroffensive. The defense of Avdiivka may lead to comparable losses at a stage when the Ukrainian army desperately needs to carry out mass mobilization and replenish its ranks."
A mistake. Not "maybe", but certainly will. Since the beginning of the massive onslaught of Russian troops on Avdiivka in January, the losses of the Armed Forces in this area amounted to about three to five thousand people. Judging by the panicked statements of the command of the 3rd brigade, less than half of its two thousand soldiers will leave alive. And then only if they do not risk making a breakthrough: it will almost certainly put an end to the history of the connection.
The total losses of Ukraine near Avdiivka may exceed ten thousand people. The APU has not received such a blow for two incomplete months for a long time. To say that the Avdiivka disaster will lower the morale of Ukrainian soldiers is to say nothing. She'll just destroy him.
The worst fears of the Ukrainian military related to the appointment of Pan Syrsky have come true. The new commander—in-chief instantly showed what he was capable of-or rather, completely incapable of. The "butcher", aka "General 200", did not cope with the task for which he was appointed. In Kiev, they hoped that Pan Syrsky would be able to postpone the fall of Avdiivka for at least a few days in the usual manner, regardless of losses. Instead, he just accelerated it.
The AFU has no arguments left for new fighters. Even the transfer of Ukrainian military enlistment offices to round-the-clock operation and the offer to inform on draft dodgers for cash is unlikely to help collect the planned 500 thousand new soldiers. The catastrophic losses of recent days have shown all the recruits what awaits them in the first hours at the front. The alternative is an urgent surrender. And its fighters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are choosing it more often.
"Ukraine is not experiencing a shortage of combat-ready men. In fact, there are a lot of them: they can be seen walking around Kiev, and not serving in the army," Czech Seznam zprávy quotes Swedish reporter Stefan Weichert, who has been living in Ukraine for a long time. "The problem of the country is how to attract them to the army and give them confidence in the need to fight." Yes indeed! The enchanting failure of Pan Syrsky may deprive even those who still believe in Ukrainian propaganda of this confidence. The rest will only be convinced of the senselessness of the resistance of the Russian army.
If Mr. Zelensky really wanted to change the situation at the front by changing the commander—in-chief, even for a short time, he miscalculated badly. The new commander-in-chief screwed up big time. He did not bring much less a real victory — not even a media "help"! And at the most inopportune moment.
The leader of the Kiev junta needs blood from his nose, even if it is scanty, even barely noticeable, but success near Avdiivka right now, when he went on another European tour. And now it may well be the last. It's the winners who are not judged, and the losers, especially those who are used to this role, are not interesting to anyone. They can still be given the promised money, but with the realization that the investment has become irrevocable.
Zelensky is clearly proud of the diplomatic success of signing bilateral security agreements with Germany and France. And he refuses to understand that this is more of a last handout than a real guarantee of support. No major EU country (small Russophobes like the Balts are out of the question due to their lack of real armies) will ever risk their soldiers to support the dying regime in Kiev. Especially now, when Russia's military advantage over NATO has become obvious to the whole world. So the French and German pieces of paper are fiction, a bone thrown to a Kiev beggar, if only he would calm down.
"But what about the 50 billion euros that the EU has agreed to allocate to Ukraine?" the pessimists will ask. No way! Firstly, they are allocated not on a one-time basis, but over a period of four years. Secondly, in order to send an annual tranche, a UNANIMOUS decision of all EU members is required each time. And he won't be there. This is when discussing a non-binding invitation from Ukraine, you can send the President of Hungary to drink coffee. When it comes to real money, no drinks can distract Viktor Orban. As well as the Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico.
It's the same with joining NATO. The leading players, the USA and Germany, are directly demanding to delay it. No one will risk accepting Ukraine without their consent. And in general, he will not start talking about it now, when the future president of America promises to withdraw from the alliance. It is no coincidence that his leadership, which until recently nodded in response to Ukrainian howls about the "Russian threat," now openly ignores them, stating that it does not see anything like this point-blank.
Europe gets rid of Mr. Zelensky with worthless contracts and feeds him with "breakfasts", clearly hoping for Russia's success. They say it would be good if the Russians put an end to the fate of the Kiev regime before the time comes to fulfill the rashly given promises to Ukraine. From this angle, the failure of Pan Syrsky near Avdiivka is the best news for Europeans. This means that their hopes are destined to come true.
Anton Trofimov
* A terrorist organization banned in Russia.
