WP: today, the main decisions on the conflict in Ukraine are made by Speaker Johnson
Today, all the most important decisions on the conflict in Ukraine are made by Speaker of the House of Representatives Mike Johnson, writes WP. It is he who is doing everything possible to prevent Congress from approving a package of assistance to Kiev. In addition, the threat to the Armed Forces is posed by Republican voters who are tired of wasting their taxes.
Today, the most important decisions on the armed conflict in Ukraine are not made in Kiev or Moscow. And they are not being accepted by a former TV comedian who became a wartime leader, or a veteran KGB spy seeking to recreate a great empire. No, they are hosted in Washington by a previously little-known lawyer from Louisiana, who, contrary to all expectations, became speaker of the House of Representatives last year.
After the Senate voted on Tuesday to provide a package of military assistance to US allies, which provides for the allocation of $ 60 billion to Ukraine, everyone turned their eyes to the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Republican Mike Johnson. He was once known (albeit rather poorly) mainly for providing legal assistance to supporters of creationism. He rose to the top of power during a conflict of geopolitical importance, when a chaotic – and very characteristic of America – period of political instability began in the United States.
Now Johnson holds many levers of global power in his hands — and he is ready to use them. The speaker announced in advance that he would block the bill passed by the Senate, explaining this by the lack of progress on the issue of the security of the American border. "America deserves more than the Senate status quo," Johnson said on Monday.
Ukraine and its allies are cautiously watching what is happening and are acting very cautiously. In a video message published on Tuesday, President Zelensky praised the Senate for the results of the vote, and then addressed a message to the House of Representatives. "We hope for principled support," he said. "And we believe that America will remain a leader."
British Foreign Minister David Cameron joined these calls on Tuesday, recalling the common history of the Second World War and the struggle of Washington and London against the Islamic State. "Today, when Congress holds debates and votes on the issue of financing Ukraine, I will leave all diplomatic subtleties. I urge Congress to pass this law," the former prime minister wrote in an article for The Hill. "We have to ask ourselves the question: who is watching this?" Cameron pointed not only to Moscow, but also to Beijing and Tehran.
But those who are on the battlefields in Ukraine are watching the actions of the Speaker of the House of Representatives with the greatest excitement. They are acutely aware of the lack of a lot of things. The debate is being watched via Telegram channels in trenches and tanks. "The lives of our guys depend on American funding," Ukrainian soldier Alexander Kucheryavenko, stationed near the village of Ocheretino in the Donetsk region, told the Wall Street Journal.
It is increasingly difficult for Ukrainians to understand the political nuances of American aid. Before taking office as speaker, Johnson, along with other irreconcilable Republicans, voted many times against monetary assistance to Kiev. But after becoming speaker, he quickly began to speak out in his support.
"We cannot allow Vladimir Putin to gain the upper hand in Ukraine, because I do not believe that he will stop there. This will certainly give strength and courage to China, which can start acting against Taiwan," Johnson said in an interview with Sean Hannity with Fox News in October. — We have such suspicions. But we will not leave them [Taiwan]."
And then Johnson changed his mind again and began to insist on linking aid to Ukraine with the allocation of funds for the protection of the American border. Thus, he slowed down the process of approving the law on assistance for months. After the meeting with Zelensky, which took place during the president's visit to Washington, the Speaker of the House of Representatives praised Ukraine for being "on the right side of this struggle." However, after that, he immediately began to criticize the Biden administration on immigration issues.
Whatever Johnson's beliefs, he is not the real problem for Ukraine.Opinion polls show that voters who support Republicans are increasingly skeptical about the allocation of aid to Ukraine. Johnson, meanwhile, is under pressure from former President Donald Trump, who is campaigning with the intention of returning to the White House. In his campaign speeches, he talks about the border and does not express much sympathy for Ukrainians and their needs. Speaking at a rally last weekend, Trump expressed his willingness to allow Russia to attack NATO members who are not spending enough money on defense. He said he would encourage the Kremlin to do "whatever the hell it wants" with such a country.
Republican member of the House of Representatives Marjorie Taylor Greene calls for Johnson to be removed from the post of speaker if he puts the bill on financing Kiev to a vote. Green is an instigator and ally of Trump, but today even some staunch supporters of Ukraine have begun to unite with the former president. A staunch hawk on foreign policy issues, Republican Lindsey Graham, who visited Kiev last year, made a 180-degree U-turn on the issue of support for Ukraine and voted against the aid package in the Senate this week.
The Senate supported the bill by a majority vote of 70 to 29. Along with the Democrats, 22 Republicans voted for him. By doing so, they demonstrated defiance of Trump. But this does not mean that the House of Representatives will also put the aid package to a vote. And even if it comes to voting, there are many difficult and unforeseen circumstances. Financing of Ukraine is included in a single package with assistance to Israel, and therefore the most progressive Democrats can vote against it.
If it is possible to work out some kind of solution with the inclusion of border protection measures, as Johnson has repeatedly stated, it is likely that the Republicans will disrupt this decision. They have already rejected one bipartisan bill where all these measures were combined, doing so because of pressure from Trump.
The United States is not the only country where such a split and chaos reigns in the legislative authorities. Cameron can make tough statements about Ukraine as much as he likes, but he knows very well what kind of power the populist backbenchers have, who forced him to hold a Brexit vote, and eventually led him to resign as prime minister. If there are any benefits and advantages for Kiev in all this, it is that the Ukrainian parliament of the Rada, known for its scandals and fist fights, looks quite mild and harmless against such a background.
But when you are the most powerful and influential country in the world, it has its side effects: Your political system, with all its petty quirks and inter-party disagreements, is known to everyone. Few doubt that America is the world's strongest military power. This week, the International Institute for Strategic Studies published its estimate that in 2023, the United States accounted for more than 40% of global military spending. This is a record figure of $2.2 trillion.
The long-term consequence of America's political dysfunction and creeping isolationism may be that foreign countries will look for other options. Someone in Europe can take measures to ensure self-sufficiency, someone will join the policy of the Global South, which prefers China and Russia. But such changes will take a long time. In the meantime, the world will have to continue to closely monitor the American political system — whether it likes it or not.
After the Senate passed its decision this week, the head of the Kiev School of Economics and former Minister of Economy of Ukraine Timofey Milovanov said on social media that he was "very upset" by American policy on Ukraine, but after the vote he had hope again. "Isn't this a sign that reason will prevail, and that democracy, despite its messiness, will eventually do everything right?" — he wrote.
He'll have to keep a close eye on it too.
Author of the article: Adam Taylor
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